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Vote Begins...15 Minutes to a Crazy Market Open Tomorrow


Parsad
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It's funny watching the vote.  You can see how certain members are withholding their votes towards the end, so that they can make themselves look good to their constituents.  Glad they are putting the country ahead of themselves! 

 

They could really avoid all this by not releasing the vote tallies until the end.  Cheers!

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Given all the talk of the market not discounting the potential of default, I have to wonder if there will be a rally tomorrow... Everybody seemed to think that this scenario would unfold as it did...

 

Then again, I have always been terrible at making market predictions... For that matter, I am generally terrible at predicting any news release effects on a stock's price! The mere fact that I don't expect much to happen, probably means that this will be an insane market open. ;)

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Guest Hester

"A country gets the politicians it deserves"

 

So true. The incumbent rate in the house during the last decade has averaged 94%. It's always assumed that Americans "get it." McCain and Obama both said this multiple times during the campaign. Politicians just need to listen to America damnit!

 

But that's bs. It's easy to forget that the American public elects the politicians. American's don't "get" anything, other than diabetes and poor math scores. We deserve the inept politicians we keep electing.

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"A country gets the politicians it deserves"

 

So true. The incumbent rate in the house during the last decade has averaged 94%. It's always assumed that Americans "get it." McCain and Obama both said this multiple times during the campaign. Politicians just need to listen to America damnit!

 

But that's bs. It's easy to forget that the American public elects the politicians. American's don't "get" anything, other than diabetes and poor math scores. We deserve the inept politicians we keep electing.

 

Well put, Hester.

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"A country gets the politicians it deserves"

 

So true. The incumbent rate in the house during the last decade has averaged 94%. It's always assumed that Americans "get it." McCain and Obama both said this multiple times during the campaign. Politicians just need to listen to America damnit!

 

But that's bs. It's easy to forget that the American public elects the politicians. American's don't "get" anything, other than diabetes and poor math scores. We deserve the inept politicians we keep electing.

 

This is something I forget from time to time. Bill Maher will usually remind me every few months or so though.

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"A country gets the politicians it deserves"

 

So true. The incumbent rate in the house during the last decade has averaged 94%. It's always assumed that Americans "get it." McCain and Obama both said this multiple times during the campaign. Politicians just need to listen to America damnit!

 

But that's bs. It's easy to forget that the American public elects the politicians. American's don't "get" anything, other than diabetes and poor math scores. We deserve the inept politicians we keep electing.

 

I agree, I have made a similar point to people when they make comments about being frustrated at the government.  If you look at the US as an aggregate we have,

 

A population that is in debt over their heads

Extremely short term oriented

Avoids long term hard work for short term fixes (obesity problems, diet pills etc)

Is enamored by entertainment

A population with a very shallow understanding of history

 

I know some people on here will say "that's not me" sure it isn't, but if you look at the country in aggregate this is what we have, and our government who represents us?  Seems like they fit the same mold as the people.  I'm not surprised at the clowns in Washington, but then again I'm not surprised at the clowns wandering this great land who elected them either.

 

This is my own personal theory, but I think if you want to change the course of things either of two things need to happen:

1) A crisis which forces a change (our current course)

2) Change the people

 

Obviously changing the people is a much harder and longer problem, but I think ultimately this is the one that rewards the populace.  Doing things like getting people to do budgets, save money, pay down debt, eat healthy, exercise, do well in school. 

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Lee Kuan Yew, our country are run by second-rate politicians.

 

brker_guy, Here is shalab's theorem - "A country gets the politicians it deserves". ( not necessarily the system it deserves )If you apply induction into what Lee Kuan Yew has supposedly said with shalab's theorem, the answer is obvious  ;D.

 

I am still a believer that the U.S system, despite its many flaws works better than many others out there.

 

 

 

Recall WEB's definition of a great business: "a business so good that any idiot could run it.".  Go USA!

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"A country gets the politicians it deserves"

 

So true. The incumbent rate in the house during the last decade has averaged 94%. It's always assumed that Americans "get it." McCain and Obama both said this multiple times during the campaign. Politicians just need to listen to America damnit!

 

But that's bs. It's easy to forget that the American public elects the politicians. American's don't "get" anything, other than diabetes and poor math scores. We deserve the inept politicians we keep electing.

 

I agree, I have made a similar point to people when they make comments about being frustrated at the government.  If you look at the US as an aggregate we have,

 

A population that is in debt over their heads

Extremely short term oriented

Avoids long term hard work for short term fixes (obesity problems, diet pills etc)

Is enamored by entertainment

A population with a very shallow understanding of history

 

I know some people on here will say "that's not me" sure it isn't, but if you look at the country in aggregate this is what we have, and our government who represents us?  Seems like they fit the same mold as the people.  I'm not surprised at the clowns in Washington, but then again I'm not surprised at the clowns wandering this great land who elected them either.

 

This is my own personal theory, but I think if you want to change the course of things either of two things need to happen:

1) A crisis which forces a change (our current course)

2) Change the people

 

Obviously changing the people is a much harder and longer problem, but I think ultimately this is the one that rewards the populace.  Doing things like getting people to do budgets, save money, pay down debt, eat healthy, exercise, do well in school. 

 

The only problem with a crisis, is that the reaction is so hard to predict. For example, various crises have put in some of the most tyrannical dictators in history. Does anybody really think that the US populous is smart/not splintered enough to stave that off (think of how split Germany was in the 20s and 30s, while we are a long shot off from that, things are strange here)? While I certainly hope not, I am skeptical.

 

In an age where the average person probably couldn't explain to you why the US losing it's AAA credit rating will likely make interest rates rise, I am skeptical of anything but our ability to continue screwing stuff up.

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In many states like California a very large percentage don't even speak English well, don't know the history of this country or care. They can tell you all about their countries though and what their flag looks like. But can't tell you what the stars on the US flag mean. So why would they even care about or understand what the debt limit is or what's going on in our government.

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http://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/

 

1) Be Careful What You Wish For. Politicians are popping champagne bottles and celebrating the end of cantankerous negotiations over the debt ceiling. I say be careful what you wish for. Let me give you my quickie, back of the envelope analysis of the debt ceiling deal in Washington.

 

The compromise calls for $2.4 trillion in spending cuts over ten years. That amounts to 16.6% of GDP, or 1.6% per year. If the Federal Reserve’s 3.0% forecast comes true, that means our economic growth rate is about to fall to 1.4% a year. If my prediction comes true, and we grow at a 2.5% rate, that plunges to 0.9%.

 

There is another country where GDP growth is measured in mere basis points: Japan. Congress has just voted for ten years of austerity. To do this at this stage of the economic cycle, when growth is feeble at best, and we have just seen two back to back quarters of growth at the 1% handle, is to guarantee us a second lost decade of zero stock market returns.

 

Sure, the spending cuts are back end loaded. But you know what? Investors will front end load the discounts in asset prices this slow growth scenario demands. This is not good news for long term holders of risk assets of any description, be they stocks, commodities, or homes.

 

This may be the riot act that financial markets are reading us today. Instead of getting the short covering rally that many of us expected, we were given a cascading series of flash crashes. The (SPX) cratered 35 points, oil cracked by $5, the Euro plunged 3 cents against the dollar, copper gave back 20 cents, and even gold pared $15. In the meantime, a flight to safety bid took bonds up two points to an incredibly low yield of 2.72%.

 

Armchair historians out there have to be recognizing the similarity of 2011to 1937. That is when a republican congress forced Franklin D. Roosevelt to throttle back government spending too soon, throwing the country back into round two of the Great Depression. That triggered a 49% plunge in the stock market. The downturn continued until WWII delivered the greatest stimulus package of all time and ignited a 25 year bull market.

 

To a large extent, there is not much anyone can do to repair the economy. Possibly as much as half of the economic growth of the past 30 years was borrowed from the future. This is because it was fueled by the $3 trillion that Ronald Reagan borrowed largely from the Japanese during 1980 to 1988, and the $5.5 trillion George W. Bush borrowed from the Chinese from 2000 to 2008.

 

The bill is now due, but the piggy bank is empty. Decades of minimal growth will be the consequence. I doubt that there is a single business out there that can point to a new customer coming to them as a result of the debt deal. There will be tens of thousands that will moan about lost business. The republicans now own the economy. That may be something they come to regret.

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Guest Hester

The only problem with a crisis, is that the reaction is so hard to predict. For example, various crises have put in some of the most tyrannical dictators in history. Does anybody really think that the US populous is smart/not splintered enough to stave that off (think of how split Germany was in the 20s and 30s, while we are a long shot off from that, things are strange here)? While I certainly hope not, I am skeptical.

 

This is a good point. German society was very progressive at one point, they even happened to publicly fund Einstein's education. Economic turmoil can really do crazy things.

In an age where the average person probably couldn't explain to you why the US losing it's AAA credit rating will likely make interest rates rise, I am skeptical of anything but our ability to continue screwing stuff up.

 

Unfortunately, you're overestimating the average American's knowledge. Only 53% of adults know how long it takes for the Earth to revolve around the Sun. Only 59% of adults know that the earliest humans and dinosaurs did not live at the same time. Only 47% of adults can roughly approximate the percent of the Earth's surface that is covered with water. Only 21% of adults answered all three questions correctly. This is according to a recent survey.

 

Granted these are scientific facts, and one of the questions (humans/dinosaurs) might be partly due to religious dogma, and Americans but will know more about current economics. But still, I would feel very comfortable taking the bet that a significant minority, if not majority of Americans don't know WHAT a credit rating is, much less why US may lose their triple A one.

 

I spent a whole day a while ago just finding every study and statistic of this sort I could, and being amazed at the results. If the surveys are to be believed, and I've had enough rural midwest and southern anecdotes in my experience to think that they mostly are, then Americans are shockingly ignorant.

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I spent a whole day a while ago just finding every study and statistic of this sort I could, and being amazed at the results. If the surveys are to be believed, and I've had enough rural midwest and southern anecdotes in my experience to think that they mostly are, then Americans are shockingly ignorant.

 

Couldn't the same be said about people everywhere in the world?  What percent of people in China know these things, or in India?  Great stats by the way, I think this just confirms what was posted on this thread or another about commentators disease. I mean just by shear numbers you have to figure 15% is above average, 70% average, and 15% below average (above average being one std dev).  Unfortunately most above average people overestimate what exactly average means when it comes to knowledge.

 

In defense of people in the Midwest (I grew up in Ohio..) while most might not know who Moody's is, or the how the government works most could probably do practical things like fix a car, or home repairs etc.  And honestly at the end of the day putting a new alternator in my car is more meaningful to me then some esoteric debt ceiling.  If the debt ceiling is raised it might or might not affect me, whereas if my car's alternator is fried I'm definitely affected.

 

I know it's probably hard to believe for the audience on this board, but not following politics, or economics hasn't negatively impacted many people's lives who I'm friends with.  They worry about their kids, their job and hanging out on weekends and seem pretty happy.  I'd actually say knowing some of this stuff can add a layer of stress that most people never have to deal with.

 

I would beg to differ on the credit rating bit though, I'm guessing almost all American's know what a credit rating is through the lens of a credit card/credit score.

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"not following politics, or economics hasn't negatively impacted many people's lives"

 

Is that not perhaps the problem? Apathy towards government is why we get the government we deserve. Then again, I don't have much faith in the average voter who will vote for whatever politician will promise them the most despite the long range cost.

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