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Time Capsule time: Your 1 year prediction


libor.plus1
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So, here's a little game.

 

State your idea of what the economy/world will look like 12 months from now, and in a year, we'll see how accurate we all were. I'll start:

 

In 12 months, we will likely be where we are now, but the trajectory will be much different. I expect the economy to bounce back slightly from the lull we are in now. In a few months  I think commodity prices will recover, as will the general economy. Problems with europe will be pushed back and temporarily leave the headlines. The stock market will do well in the winter months. Facebook will go public.

 

However, underneath the quiet calm, interest rates will still be 0, employment will be less than inspiring, and house prices will continue a downward trend. Growth in China will encounter larger problems related to reduced ROI from capital investments and higher inflation.

 

These strains will start to turn the economy south in about a year. New stimulus will have very limited impact, particularly on main street. The problems in Europe will become more pronounced as Germany and France admit that the only way out of the problem is through restructuring, and Greece is forced to default.

 

 

 

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"However, underneath the quiet calm, interest rates will still be 0, employment will be less than inspiring, and house prices will continue a downward trend. Growth in China will encounter larger problems related to reduced ROI from capital investments and higher inflation."

 

You can't go wrong predicting the present :)

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Guest VAL9000

In 12 months, most people on this board will still not have felt the touch of a woman.

You're probably wrong.  Personal experience is an overweight contributor when making predictions.

 

;D

 

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In 12 months, most people on this board will still not have felt the touch of a woman.

You're probably wrong.  Personal experience is an overweight contributor when making predictions.

 

;D

 

 

Indeed.  This seems to be some kind of anchoring bias.

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I wish I could play, but I have no idea where the economy will be 12 months from now. That's why I try to buy businesses that should do well over time regardless..

 

You're that guy who when asked what he would do for a million dollars would answer "as little as I had to" =)

 

Wow, a million bucks seems so trivial since the days of Breakfast Club.

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In 12 months, most people on this board will still not have felt the touch of a woman.

You're probably wrong.  Personal experience is an overweight contributor when making predictions.

 

;D

 

 

Both of these are quite funny. Lol.

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I wish I could play, but I have no idea where the economy will be 12 months from now. That's why I try to buy businesses that should do well over time regardless..

 

You're that guy who when asked what he would do for a million dollars would answer "as little as I had to" =)

 

Wow, a million bucks seems so trivial since the days of Breakfast Club.

 

Ha! There's definitely a lot I would do, but none of them is "making macro predictions"  ;)

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I wish I could play, but I have no idea where the economy will be 12 months from now. That's why I try to buy businesses that should do well over time regardless..

 

You're that guy who when asked what he would do for a million dollars would answer "as little as I had to" =)

 

Wow, a million bucks seems so trivial since the days of Breakfast Club.

 

So many great lines in that movie.  I remember seeing it as a double feature of all things along with Purple Rain. 

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Glad to see we are not taking ourselves too seriously.

 

I tend to agree with libor.plus1. I think (hope?) that the current slide has been a factor of the time of year, the after effects of the quake in Japan, markets getting a little ahead of themselves, and a general lack of positive news. I am hoping to see better figures next month and then an upturn in the Fall.

 

I sometimes get very pessimistic about the long term, but I temper those thoughts with the realization that Asia is capable of such a huge demand. When you unleash a century's pent up demand over just a few years - by half the world's population - that is a driving force that may well balance out a lot of problems.

 

I remember seeing pictures of those huge multi-lane highways in China taken 20-30 years ago and marveling that there was almost no cars or trucks on those roads. I see pictures of the same roads today that are gridlocked with bumper to bumper traffic and yet less than 10% of the population owns vehicles. The demand for all things will be staggering.

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