Ireland

[Eric50]

Very insightful article on Ireland debt crisis. I worry a lot about the coming funding crisis in Europe.

 

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/opinion/2011/0507/1224296372123_pf.html

[tengen]

Morgan Kelly seems to be Ireland's modern day fiscal Cassandra.

 

Michael Lewis wrote a very good article in Vanity Fair that features a lot of Kelly's views and provides background to the current situation: http://www.vanityfair.com/business/features/2011/03/michael-lewis-ireland-201103?currentPage=all

 

[ubuy2wron]

Ireland is unfixable the Irish people will eventually figure it out and vote for someone who will tell the ECB to stuff it. I do not know how you can fix the European problem with out money being destroyed which is deflationary. I think the world and the markets are about to get a lot more interesting I also think we just might see some bargains again. I just pray that it just ends with a downturn in mkts sometimes it ends in gun fire and blood shed.

[Ballinvarosig Investors]

Just to give you an idea of how bleak it is here. Debt-to-GDP is forecasted to rise to 120% by 2012 and close to 1 Euro in every 3 of the total tax take will go towards paying interest on the national debt. Unlike most other sovereign nations, we do not possess a printing press to QE our way out of trouble. Just like every dog on the street here knew that the Irish banks were finished in 2008, most people here acknowledge that it isn't a case if we default, it's when. Just last week, the government made a desperate grab for private pensions (similar to what Argentina did), we all know what happened in Argentina after that event. At the moment, the smart money is piling out of Irish financial institutions as there is a very real fear that the Irish government may go one step further and start confiscating deposits, or possibly exit the Euro, creating a new currency that will let them default by the backdoor (i.e. QE).

[Myth465]

Thanks for the link. I enjoyed it.

[PlanMaestro]

Just to give you an idea of how bleak it is here. Debt-to-GDP is forecasted to rise to 120% by 2012 and close to 1 Euro in every 3 of the total tax take will go towards paying interest on the national debt. Unlike most other sovereign nations, we do not possess a printing press to QE our way out of trouble. Just like every dog on the street here knew that the Irish banks were finished in 2008, most people here acknowledge that it isn't a case if we default, it's when. Just last week, the government made a desperate grab for private pensions (similar to what Argentina did), we all know what happened in Argentina after that event. At the moment, the smart money is piling out of Irish financial institutions as there is a very real fear that the Irish government may go one step further and start confiscating deposits, or possibly exit the Euro, creating a new currency that will let them default by the backdoor (i.e. QE).

 

It surely sounds like Argentina 2000. And the Money Kept Rolling In ... and Out (great book)

[SharperDingaan]

 

Perhaps a mixed blessing but it is more likely that there will be another bailout - with the money going to the German & French banks - & not Ireland.

 

Most folks would think that Greece, & Ireland, would be far better off if they were evicted from Euroland, allowed to declare a moratorium on their debt (as per Iceland), & float their own currencies. Each to their own solution. The fear to date has been the massive German & French bank write-downs that this would trigger – but it’s quite curable by redirecting the bailout, & will end the negotiation.

 

The reality for the young in both countries, is that if you’re ambitious & employable, you are going to have to leave Ireland &/or Greece to seek work elsewhere - & for at least the better part of the next decade.  Not a bad thing, but for those left behind or unable to move/adapt it will be gut wrenching.

 

Keep in mind that the last time Ireland was in such bad economic shape was during the Great Depression, & it took a very long time to come out of it. Eighty years of progress has at least produced a more humane approach.

 

SD

 

[roundball100]

Ireland is unfixable the Irish people will eventually figure it out and vote for someone who will tell the ECB to stuff it. [...] I think the world and the markets are about to get a lot more interesting I also think we just might see some bargains again. [...]

Suppose it does all end badly, with default or financial implosion of some sort.  Are you safer holding cash (where? aren't all the big global banks at risk again then - and we're back to worrying about even money market funds collapsing?), or holding stock in corporations with the deepest pockets and no debt and no financial exposure?  When I think back to March 2009, I felt safer hold stock in solid companies than anything else.  Am I crazy? 

[ubuy2wron]

Just to give you an idea of how bleak it is here. Debt-to-GDP is forecasted to rise to 120% by 2012 and close to 1 Euro in every 3 of the total tax take will go towards paying interest on the national debt. Unlike most other sovereign nations, we do not possess a printing press to QE our way out of trouble. Just like every dog on the street here knew that the Irish banks were finished in 2008, most people here acknowledge that it isn't a case if we default, it's when. Just last week, the government made a desperate grab for private pensions (similar to what Argentina did), we all know what happened in Argentina after that event. At the moment, the smart money is piling out of Irish financial institutions as there is a very real fear that the Irish government may go one step further and start confiscating deposits, or possibly exit the Euro, creating a new currency that will let them default by the backdoor (i.e. QE).

 

Ballin I said to myself just on the weekend, if I had any dough and I lived in Ireland I would be looking how to get the heck out. If I had no dough I might stick around as it made no difference. What do you see on the ground in terms of people letting their feet do the talking.

[BargainValueHunter]

...and two years later?

 

http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/can-irelands-celtic-tiger-roar-again/2013/08/16/1462304c-0460-11e3-a07f-49ddc7417125_print.html

 

One important facet of that globally competitive sector includes Ireland’s top universities, which engage in extensive research collaboration with industry and government. Certainly the best known, and most lavishly funded is the Center for Research on Adaptive Nanostructures and Nanodevices (CRANN) here at Trinity College. CRANN boasts 300 researchers from 45 countries, working hand in hand with more than 125 companies such as Intel and Merck. The companies make use of CRANN’s research and facilities, while CRANN’s students and post-doctoral fellows gain insights, experience and jobs at the companies.

 

Because of the continuing strength of this globally competitive export sector, there are clear signs that Ireland’s economy has begun a modest, if tentative, recovery. Some companies report having trouble finding highly skilled workers or experienced managers. And in the Dublin and Galway real estate markets, where values fell as much as 50 percent, shortages for certain types of housing and offices last year led to a 10 percent bounce off the bottom in real estate prices.

 

These days, in fact, foreign investors are swarming all over Dublin and Galway, looking to buy buildings put on the market by the National Asset Management Agency (NAMA), the government entity set up to take over $90 billion in bad loans to property developers after the banks were nationalized. The complaint from the real estate industry is that NAMA is not moving fast enough to dispose of the properties. But NAMA’s boss, Brendan McDonagh, is determined not to repeat the mistake made by the U.S. government following the savings and loan crisis of the early 1990s, when it sold off its inventory too quickly, allowing investors rather than taxpayers to reap the bonanza when the market rebounded.

[Guest ajc]

 

The Great Irish Share Valuation Project:

 

From Wexboy's excellent blog. Covers around 80 Irish stocks.

 

http://wexboy.wordpress.com/2014/02/03/2014-the-great-irish-share-valuation-project-part-i/