Japan Just Got Hit By An 8.4 Earthquake...Near Sendai!

[zippy1]

I went on google map to check out this area.  Most of the population on the map appears to be within 1-2 miles from the shores. So if the tsunami comes inland by 5-10 miles, the results will be really really bad.

 

Both Fukushima No.1 and Fukushima No.2 nuclear power stations, having 4 and 3 reactors, are having problems with the colling systems.

 

The backup diesel colling system is supposed to be destroyed by the tsunami.  They are running the second backup coolling systems with battery power.  Near power plant No. 1, population within 10 miles radius are being told to evacuate.  Near power plant No. 2, population within 3 miles radius are being told to evacuate. 

 

This nuclear incident probably will be a bigger problem than the direct damage created by the tsunami. 

 

One of the coworker was from Sendai with parents still living in the area.  He tried to fly back last afternoon. 

 

Another Japanese coworker told me that this is much worse than he would ever expected. I can see the great sadness and pain in his eyes.

 

Let's pray for the people's safety.

[Rabbitisrich]

I'm not sure that Japan needs money--they so far have only requested expertise and manpower--but here is a list of charities with established relationships in Japan:

 

http://www.charitynavigator.org/index.cfm?bay=content.view&cpid=1221

[zippy1]

More bad news. According to NHK. Video shows that the outer shell of the reactor building is now gone after the explosion. 

Explosion "heard" at quake-hit nuclear plant

 

Tokyo Electric Power Company says an explosion was heard at one of its nuclear reactors in quake-hit Fukushima Prefecture. It says several workers were injured.

 

The power plant operator told a news conference on Saturday that it had been informed smoke was seen near the scene of the explosion, the Fukushima Number One power station.

 

The utility firm had been releasing air from the container of the reactor to lower pressure.

 

Pressure inside the container had been rising after the reactor's cooling system broke down due to power failure.

Radioactive substances have been detected near the reactor.

 

Saturday, March 12, 2011 17:34 +0900 (JST)

[Guest broxburnboy]

I sat on the beach yesterday afternoon here in Banderas Bay, Mexico and watched the effects of the tsunami generated 6000 miles away. We had several mini tidal cycles with about 2 feet difference high to low, 20 minutes apart. It was like watching the sun rise in the West and then reset again.. very disconcerting. It should serve as a reminder to how small the planet is and how dependent we are on it.

Perhaps the Hopi say it best .. "mother is angry" <with us>.

[Hoodlum]

AIR Worldwide has increased it's estimated range for losses.  A Police official also said the death toll will likely exceed 10,000.

 

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20110313/bs_nm/us_air_worldwide_japan

 

AIR said its loss estimate range was $14.5 billion to $34.6 billion. That was based on a range of 1.2 trillion yen to 2.8 trillion yen, converted at 81.85 yen to the dollar.

 

The firm cautioned the estimate was preliminary, and it has said its models do not factor in the effects of the tsunami that followed the earthquake, or any potential losses from nuclear damage.

 

AIR cautioned that in some cases, buildings will have been damaged by the 8.9-magnitude earthquake and then swept away by the flooding thereafter, making precise counting difficult.

 

 

 

 

[Crip1]

Understanding the population of Sendai is upwards of 1,000,000, and the fact that there were smaller towns/cities along that area of the Japanese coast, there seems to be little doubt that the previous death toll estimates of 2,000 or so will be woefully low. New video clips continue to come in which, frankly, look like CGI from a disaster movie...it simply does not look real. Simply said, this is the most epic disaster in our lifetimes.

 

Part of me hates that we are focusing less on the human tragedy (The countless number of sons, daughters, mothers, fathers, friends, etc were taken), but the world does go on, so does the "business" aspect of this as well.

 

The question I have is whether or not the citizens and businesses in Japan have insurance coverages/limits similiar to what one would find in North America? If so, then the losses will be astronomical. 

 

-Crip

[Hoodlum]

The human and economic loss will be much greater than projected so far.  Japan will be starting rolling blackouts on Monday and they expect this to continue for at least another month.  I think they are being overly optomistic on this and is the worse type of environment for electronics manufacturing.  This will impact all plants in Japan.  The one nuclear plant with it's outer shell gone and the reactor filled with corrosive sea water will likely need to be rebuilt.   Japan is highly dependant on nuclear power and this will take years to replace.

 

Unfortunately the situation will likely worsen. 

 

Japan declares state of emergency at another nuclear plant

[dowfin1]

From Bloomberg:

 

 

“Insurance penetration and density is very low when compared to leading Western markets, particularly in commercial and industrial lines,” RMS said of Japan in an e-mailed statement. “Many small- to medium-sized businesses are completely uninsured.”

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-03-12/global-insurers-may-sidestep-most-claims-as-earthquake-costs-stay-in-japan.html

[onyx1]

Amazing before and after pictures:

 

http://www.abc.net.au/news/events/japan-quake-2011/beforeafter.htm

[twacowfca]

Understanding the population of Sendai is upwards of 1,000,000, and the fact that there were smaller towns/cities along that area of the Japanese coast, there seems to be little doubt that the previous death toll estimates of 2,000 or so will be woefully low. New video clips continue to come in which, frankly, look like CGI from a disaster movie...it simply does not look real. Simply said, this is the most epic disaster in our lifetimes.

 

Part of me hates that we are focusing less on the human tragedy (The countless number of sons, daughters, mothers, fathers, friends, etc were taken), but the world does go on, so does the "business" aspect of this as well.

 

The question I have is whether or not the citizens and businesses in Japan have insurance coverages/limits similiar to what one would find in North America? If so, then the losses will be astronomical.  

 

-Crip

 

 

Earthquake coverage for residences is almost entirely through a government scheme or absent.  Sadly, many, if not most, houses that were destroyed by the Tsunami won't be missed by their residents.  

 

Most commercial losses will be born by Japanese Insurers.  Retrocessional coverage will certainly be impacted above some of the higher attachment points of policies issued by international reinsurers.  RMS should have a first estimate of exposure tomorrow morning.  

 

The 100 year Japan earthquake PML for Lancashire is about 9% to 10% of equity, but their attachment points are fairly high.  A loss of this magnitude would be about the size of the combined losses they experienced in the first half of 2010 from the Chile earthquake plus Deepwater Horizon. So far, this earthquake doesn't appear to be a 100 year PML event, not counting Tsunami damage, despite the tragic loss of life.

 

I think flood losses may not be covered on most retrocessional policies.  Even so, losses could continue to rise because big losses often exceed modeled estimates.  The big international reinsurers should take a smaller percentage hit to their equity than the Lloyds and Bermuda companies that have substantial exposure to earthquakes, up to about 7% according to some wild early guesses.

 

 

[txlaw]

Man, this is horrible.  Hopefully, they can get the nuclear meltdowns under control and get people out of those areas that are at risk to radiation leaks.

 

I really hope that California wakes up to the dangers that are possible and that we are now seeing, unfortunately, in Japan.  I was talking to my sister who lives in SF yesterday, and nobody in California seems to be prepared for something like this happening. 

[Alekbaylee]

Some interesting comparative numbers...

 

Most expensive quakes.

Date               Country/Region       Total cost ($M)        (Insured costs $M)     Victims

 

17/01/95           Japan: Kobé            100 000                      3 000                 6 430

12/05/08          China : Sichuan         85 000                                              87 149

17/01/94          USA: Northridge        44 000                     15 300                      61

27/02/10          Chili                          30 000                      8 000                    520

23/10/04          Japan: Niigata            28 000                        460                      46

07/12/98          Armenia: Spitak         14 000                                             25 000

21/09/99          Taïwan: Nantou          14 000                        750                 2 370

16/07/07          Japan: Niigata            12 500                        335                     1

17/08/99          Turkey: Izmit             12 600                        600                15 000

23/11/80          Italy: Irpinia              11 000                          40                  2 914

17/10/89          USA: Loma Prieta       10 000                        960                       68

26/12/04          South-Asia (tsunami) 10 000                      1 000               210 000

12/01/10          Haïti                           8 000                         200               316 000

21/06/90          Iran (Gilan)                 7 100                         100                 40 000

 

 

Seems to confirm the low penetration (Kobe's was particulary strong)

 

 

 

 

[Alekbaylee]

World's costliest quakes in insured damages since 1980 (before this one)

 

Date              Country/Région      Total cost (M $)  Insured Costs  (M $)      Victims

 

17/01/94      USA ( Northridge)          44 000            15 300                        61

27/02/2010  Chili                              30 000              8 000                      520

17/01/95      Japan (Kobé)              100 000              3 000                    6 430

26/12/04      South Asia (tsunami)    10 000              1 000                  210 000

17/10/89      USA (Loma Prieta)        10 000                960                        68

23/10/04      Japan                            28 000                760                          46

21/09/99      Taïwan (Nantou)            14 000                750                    2 370

28/12/89      Australia (Newcastle)      1 200                670                          13

17/08/99      Turkey (Izmit)              12 000                600                    15 000

16/07/07      Japan                            12 500                335                          11

28/02/01      USA (Seattle)                  2 000                305

13/01/01      El Salvador                      1 500                290                        853

12/01/10      Haïti                                8 000                200                  316 000

 

 

[BargainValueHunter]

The first insured losses reports are coming in:

 

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Montpelier-Re-Reports-Initial-bw-53024522.html?x=0&.v=1

 

In view of the uncertainties associated with these initial estimates, actual losses may differ significantly from the estimate.

 

On March 11, 2011, a major earthquake and tsunami struck Japan’s northeast coast. The Company has commenced its estimation process for expected claims relating to this event but believes it is too early to issue a loss estimate at this time.