Jump to content

Short Green Mountain Coffee Roaster (GMCR)?


smo001
 Share

Recommended Posts

Interesting article from the Financial Post about GMCR. Company trades at "trade at 295 times cash flow, according to data compiled by Bloomberg." But, 25% of the float is already short according to Yahoo Finance. Also, "the company also faces the prospect of increasing competition as patents on the Keurig K-Cup system are set to expire next year."

 

For the records I don't short nor do I have the desire to. But I do know some other board members do. Simply food for thought. Cheers!

 

http://www.financialpost.com/thought+Starbucks+expensive/4309836/story.html

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 2 years later...

 

Shorting is a tough game.

We had considered looking at hedging somewhat lately at frothy levels but holy shit...one deal and you are really really smoked. Ackman and Einhorn or two of the best in the business....and they have not only lost a ton of money...their reputations have gotten hit badly...

 

Is cash not a better option?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

 

 

There was a long thread about gmcr? Still around did anyone call or even think about this?

 

http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/coca-cola-pods-will-let-people-make-drinks-at-home/2014/02/05/7a46a6c4-8ec4-11e3-878e-d76656564a01_story.html

 

Has the nature of quick serve drinks changed?

 

If this is the case it has "huge implications".

 

There was a good article in Fortune recently about Green Mountain. 

 

http://money.cnn.com/2014/01/16/technology/keurig-green-mountain.pr.fortune/

 

They talk about doing soup and other things as well with the Keurig machines.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest deepValue

Can anyone tell me why Starbucks, Campbell Soup, etc. would sign an agreement with GMCR on anything but the most favorable terms (unfavorable for GMCR)? It seems like they could go to any other white-label manufacturer for the same thing.

 

And I don't really understand this agreement with KO. My understanding is that Coke is just signing up as a licensed product on Keurig Cold. Is that right? And my guess is they get manufacturing and distro for free in exchange for the equity investment. I don't understand why the bulls would get so excited about this, but I don't really understand the GMCR bull case in the first place.

 

I can say that I'm really glad I don't short stocks.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Can anyone tell me why Starbucks, Campbell Soup, etc. would sign an agreement with GMCR on anything but the most favorable terms (unfavorable for GMCR)? It seems like they could go to any other white-label manufacturer for the same thing.

[/size]

[/size]Because they've found that it's more expensive to do on their own than licensing GMCR, who already has the infrastructure in place. I've been saying Einhorn was wrong on this for a while (see here).

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest 50centdollars

Anyone know what the Coca-cola Keurig cold is going to be? Are we going to be buying are own little Coca-cola syrup packs?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

 

DCG,

 

Do not know if you are long GMCR...I am not...I looked at shorting it a long time ago and passed. If the hedge funds pile on Einhorn like they did Ackman could get very interesting for GMCR holders.

Ackman

- they all bought into Herbalife at the same time he had to cover driving up the price

- they shorted the stocks Ackman owned knowing he would have to sell to get leverage ratios on side

- and they short squeezed all of his other short positions...so they would rise where he had to cover...

- it was ugly...CP rail probably saved Ackman...He had  to cover as we know...and later bought puts...

 

Einhorn was short Herbalife....I do not know if he was part of the group that ganged up on Ackman....but you can be sure that Ackman is looking at revenge.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

 

DCG,

 

Do not know if you are long GMCR

 

 

I'm not any more. I owned it for a while and unfortunately sold it way to early to move cash into something else (don't even remember what). They're a local company mainly based here in Vermont so things I was hearing from a couple people who worked there (nothing really that wasn't public news) and other news I was reading just didn't match up with Einhorn's thesis (which was basically that once their patent expired, the company was doomed).

 

 

Producing K-Cups is a much more involved process than it seems. There's actually a great article in the latest Fortune magazine about GMCR which touches on k-cup production. Starbucks tried doing it themselves and struggled with it.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest deepValue

Producing K-Cups is a much more involved process than it seems. There's actually a great article in the latest Fortune magazine about GMCR which touches on k-cup production. Starbucks tried doing it themselves and struggled with it.

 

Would you mind posting the link or telling me what the title of the article is? I can't seem to find it on the Fortune website.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Producing K-Cups is a much more involved process than it seems. There's actually a great article in the latest Fortune magazine about GMCR which touches on k-cup production. Starbucks tried doing it themselves and struggled with it.

 

Would you mind posting the link or telling me what the title of the article is? I can't seem to find it on the Fortune website.

 

 

Took way too long to find, but I finally found the link. Here you go: http://money.cnn.com/2014/01/16/technology/keurig-green-mountain.pr.fortune/

 

Edit: damn..looks like you have to be a subscriber to view the whole article. Guess you'll have to pick up a copy of the magazine. Anyway, it gives some good insights into the company, and shows they have more of a moat than you might think.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

×
×
  • Create New...