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serendibz

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Everything posted by serendibz

  1. Both quoted figures refer to ton-miles. And according to those figures BNSF has a market share of 702m / 1.85t = <0.1%. But it is the number 1 railroad in terms of market share. What am I missing? BNSF's market share is much much higher in ton miles than it is in revenues, if that is what you are getting at - "In that respect, we are a strong number one among the seven large American railroads (two of which are Canadian-based), carrying 45% more ton-miles of freight than our closest competitor."
  2. On p21: "By 2014, Class I railroads carried 1.85 trillion ton-miles, an increase of 182%" On p22 (BNSF's share): "Last year the comparable figures were 702 million ton-miles (plus 71%) and 47,000 employees (plus only 4%)" Is there a typo somewhere because BNSF's market share seem to be way too low.
  3. I remember reading a thread where someone posted old BRK annual reports from the 70s and 80s, but I can't seem to find the thread now. Can someone kindly direct me?
  4. INTJ too. Are many successful investors on this board INTJ?
  5. Coca Cola takes 10% stake and the price shoots up.
  6. The variance in poker is very high. Just by purely looking at results of any single session, you can't really conclude who is the better poker player whereas for bridge it is much closer to chess, ie it is relatively clear who is the better player based on short term results.
  7. I don't understand why he would put more money in something that has 5x potential than in something with 2x potential in the same timeframe
  8. This leads me to think how many years of performance data and magnitude of overperformance can we conclude that an investor will outperform in the future.
  9. [amazonsearch]One Click: Jeff Bezos and the Rise of Amazon[/amazonsearch] Has anyone read this book yet? Would you recommend it?
  10. 1. Say you are valuing company X using a discounted cash flow model. What is the appropriate discount rate to use? 2. Say you now are the only person who knows the annual free cash flow of company X with certainty to perpetuity. Assume further that all FCF will be paid out to shareholders annually. What is the appropriate discount rate to use and why? 3. If your answer to 2. was the long term risk free rate, does it mean that the reason for using a discount rate that is higher to the risk free rate when valuing company X is to adjust for uncertainty in its future FCF? 4. If your answer to 3. was yes, why do we not adjust the numerator (FCF) instead of the denominator (discount rate). 5. Or am I just wrong to think in this way and that DCF models are next to worthless for valuing companies given its many flaws
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