FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.

[allnatural]

There is an order granting oral argument on 7/3, but no date set it appears. See attached

18-00281-0036.pdf

[muscleman]

 

That's interesting - can you elaborate? What do they do and how does that turn up in a chart? I would've thought that if the volume isn't there, then there's not much they can, unless it's off market transactions (but then they would not be in your charts? And why would someone take the other side in size off market if the big players know something?)

Thank you!

 

Usually, when a big player wants to get out, he would either find another big player for a block trade, or he would pay someone to say bullish things about it to attract less sophisticated investors to take over the position. (Maloni's Collins ruling rumor definitely counts. CNBC talking heads. Possibly ACG  Analytics video as well). This is why when everyone is expecting something to happen, it usually goes the other way. This "something everyone is expecting" is likely the lie that the big player has manufactured to facilitate his own position moving effort. And as stock drifts lower each day, he would release "planned" bullish news on schedule to support the faith of these investors and may even trick them to think it is a lower and better price to add.

 

I don't know about off market transactions, but dark pool trades are not recording intra day, but they have to be reported a bit after market close on that day. The volume is low since June, but who knows if they FINISHED selling. Sometimes it drifts lower and lower before the next big volume drop. Check out SHSP for example.

 

Checkout this twit:

ACG Analytics

@ACGAnalytics

Bedtime in DC. #NWS to end as part of new negotiated Amendment in 4th quarter

 

Is ACG Analytics running charity and be so nice that they would care about mundane investors like you and me making money in GSEs? It reads like material information, so why would they share it for free instead of distributing that among their paid clients?

 

 

I previously said I'd stop sharing my TA view because I knew people are gonna get pissed off. There were a few folks who said it was helpful so I posted again, and this time it upsets even more people. So I guess it is time for me to stop making this thread "laughable". Good luck guys! I think we are at a critical juncture and the bullish setup scenario isn't dead, but I assign it a 30% probability.

 

 

[Guest cherzeca]

There is an order granting oral argument on 7/3, but no date set it appears. See attached

 

ha! plum missed it. 

 

07/03/2019 36 ORDER granting 35 Motion for Oral Argument. The court will hold oral argument on those portions of defendant's motion to dismiss that concern jurisdiction and standing. The court will provide additional information to the parties via e-mail. Signed by Chief Judge Margaret M. Sweeney. (jhk) (Entered: 07/03/2019)

 

nothing after this....unless I missed it

[Guest cherzeca]

 

That's interesting - can you elaborate? What do they do and how does that turn up in a chart? I would've thought that if the volume isn't there, then there's not much they can, unless it's off market transactions (but then they would not be in your charts? And why would someone take the other side in size off market if the big players know something?)

Thank you!

 

Usually, when a big player wants to get out, he would either find another big player for a block trade, or he would pay someone to say bullish things about it to attract less sophisticated investors to take over the position. (Maloni's Collins ruling rumor definitely counts. CNBC talking heads. Possibly ACG  Analytics video as well). This is why when everyone is expecting something to happen, it usually goes the other way. This "something everyone is expecting" is likely the lie that the big player has manufactured to facilitate his own position moving effort. And as stock drifts lower each day, he would release "planned" bullish news on schedule to support the faith of these investors and may even trick them to think it is a lower and better price to add.

 

I don't know about off market transactions, but dark pool trades are not recording intra day, but they have to be reported a bit after market close on that day. The volume is low since June, but who knows if they FINISHED selling. Sometimes it drifts lower and lower before the next big volume drop. Check out SHSP for example.

 

Checkout this twit:

ACG Analytics

@ACGAnalytics

Bedtime in DC. #NWS to end as part of new negotiated Amendment in 4th quarter

 

Is ACG Analytics running charity and be so nice that they would care about mundane investors like you and me making money in GSEs? It reads like material information, so why would they share it for free instead of distributing that among their paid clients?

 

 

I previously said I'd stop sharing my TA view because I knew people are gonna get pissed off. There were a few folks who said it was helpful so I posted again, and this time it upsets even more people. So I guess it is time for me to stop making this thread "laughable". Good luck guys! I think we are at a critical juncture and the bullish setup scenario isn't dead, but I assign it a 30% probability.

 

if an institutional investor asked a competent securities lawyer about the conduct you just described, the II would be advised that this is market manipulation under the securities exchange act of 1934.  I am not saying the conduct you described doesn't happen, it is just that the II would be engaging in unlawful behavior.

 

but I dont understand your basic point.  block trades get publicly reported.  there is no dark underground unreported securities market.

[Midas79]

Usually, when a big player wants to get out, he would either find another big player for a block trade, or he would pay someone to say bullish things about it to attract less sophisticated investors to take over the position. (Maloni's Collins ruling rumor definitely counts. CNBC talking heads. Possibly ACG  Analytics video as well). This is why when everyone is expecting something to happen, it usually goes the other way. This "something everyone is expecting" is likely the lie that the big player has manufactured to facilitate his own position moving effort. And as stock drifts lower each day, he would release "planned" bullish news on schedule to support the faith of these investors and may even trick them to think it is a lower and better price to add.

 

I don't know about off market transactions, but dark pool trades are not recording intra day, but they have to be reported a bit after market close on that day. The volume is low since June, but who knows if they FINISHED selling. Sometimes it drifts lower and lower before the next big volume drop. Check out SHSP for example.

 

What were the dates of those events (Maloni's comment, etc), and how did the price and volume react after those? I'm not sure it's so easy to tease out that signal from all the noise. While your argument sounds plausible, that doesn't make it probable. Saying "if a big player wants out, then they pay someone to rumormonger in order to drive up the price" is not at all the same as saying "if we hear positive rumors, then a big player must want out".

 

Do you have any examples of what you claim clearly happening in the past?

 

Also, what does SHSP have to do with this? The chart alone doesn't support your argument, you would need to show examples of people coming out with speculation and such that directly and immediately affected the price.

 

Checkout this twit:

ACG Analytics

@ACGAnalytics

Bedtime in DC. #NWS to end as part of new negotiated Amendment in 4th quarter

 

Is ACG Analytics running charity and be so nice that they would care about mundane investors like you and me making money in GSEs? It reads like material information, so why would they share it for free instead of distributing that among their paid clients?

 

To the first question, I think there are plenty of reasons for them to say this other than your theory that they are being paid to do so in order for a big holder to get out at a good price:

 

• Some organizations like to get the scoop more than the money they would make.
  
• If their clients had already built their desired positions, why sit on the information?
  
• Some like to speculate ahead of time in order to claim later that they got it right, even without being paid by anyone to do so.
  

 

To the second, if they tried to hide stuff behind a paywall it would come out anyway. Just look at the Asset-Backed Alert and Bloomberg Intelligence bits that end up here and on other message boards.

[Guest cherzeca]

@midas/MM

 

the treasury plan is a document that is easily copied and transmitted.  I suspect that it was circulated widely within administration for comment.  the likelihood that a copy has been read by people like ACG is high, and so I expect that II clients have already been briefed on contents....and those contents are not going to be controversial.  the plan will describe an avenue for reform that can be pursued by the administration alone, or together with congress. 

 

we all know this.  we also know that congress wont be doing anything about the GSEs in the next year, though I do expect senator Warner to grumble and grandstand.

 

what we dont know is how quickly treasury and fhfa will pursue a negotiation and what the terms of that negotiation will be.  I also suspect that both mnuchin and Calabria have discussed this and have reached a broad agreement, with many important details needed to be filled in.  while there has been much discussion about a capital raise, there certainly is the possibility that the GSEs simply retain earnings for awhile, and this would be "bad news" for the junior prefs...but this type of detail wont be in the plan and wont be known, if it happens, for at least a few months.  I have not seen any rumors that bankers have been retained, so the details of the negotiation and capital raise are likely very much in flux until bankers have been retained. 

 

so we are in waiting mode, and the junior pref price reflects this.  you dont need to be a TA maven to understand this.

 

meanwhile it is soon 7 months since the collins en banc oral arg and one can develop theories about this, but all it takes is one or two slow judges out of 16, and the slowness could be strategic or just summer commitments. 

[hardincap]

Is ACG Analytics running charity and be so nice that they would care about mundane investors like you and me making money in GSEs? It reads like material information, so why would they share it for free instead of distributing that among their paid clients?

 

They’ve been publicly bullish since end of last year, and you were quite bullish early this year. So now that the stock has fallen, you think their subsequent bullish comments are bearish? Aren’t you contradicting yourself here? Or at least confusing TA with FA

[buffetteer1984]

@MM you seem to be basing your opinion on information arbitrage and because information is readily available and share price is going down it somehow implies that there's info that maybe WE don't know.  This could simply be market irrationality which is a basic concept.  Stock prices don't always go up and when it goes down it doesn't automatically mean something is bad or we don't know something.  Could it not be that people aren't willing to invest until the concrete plans are public?  I'm sure investors are watching and not front running the position willing to miss out on some upside to ensure certainty that the plan will come out and will be what is assumed. Market prices don't always make sense i'm sure most of us can agree on that for any positions we own.

[muscleman]

Is ACG Analytics running charity and be so nice that they would care about mundane investors like you and me making money in GSEs? It reads like material information, so why would they share it for free instead of distributing that among their paid clients?

 

They’ve been publicly bullish since end of last year, and you were quite bullish early this year. So now that the stock has fallen, you think their subsequent bullish comments are bearish? Aren’t you contradicting yourself here? Or at least confusing TA with FA

 

 

no. If you check my prior posts. I made three trades this year. When I bought at mid 9.6 area and a few days later this ACG video came out, I sold the next day, and only booked a marginal profit.

[investorG]

Is ACG Analytics running charity and be so nice that they would care about mundane investors like you and me making money in GSEs? It reads like material information, so why would they share it for free instead of distributing that among their paid clients?

 

They’ve been publicly bullish since end of last year, and you were quite bullish early this year. So now that the stock has fallen, you think their subsequent bullish comments are bearish? Aren’t you contradicting yourself here? Or at least confusing TA with FA

 

 

no. If you check my prior posts. I made three trades this year. When I bought at mid 9.6 area and a few days later this ACG video came out, I sold the next day, and only booked a marginal profit.

 

don't sweat the negativity, muscleman, your transparency is refreshing.  you, me, the others, we're just educated and instinctually guessing.  bets have been made on both sides and now imo it's up to 16 judges and mnuchin/trump/Calabria to show or not show if there's honor left in our government.  I wish everyone good luck.

[Jcmeg35]

Read earlier this morning that there are rumblings that Mnuchin is thinking of leaving this fall because he is "exasperated on trade". This seems like a real risk IMO since it would most likely serve to dramatically elongate the R&R process, especially if the end to NWS has not been negotiated and announced - new TRSY Sec. would have to get up to speed and might have a very different view than Mnuchin.

 

Anyone with a different view?

[muscleman]

Chris, do you know if a Dem appointed judge in one of those 16 judges could strategically drag the ruling past 2020?

 

[muscleman]

 

That's interesting - can you elaborate? What do they do and how does that turn up in a chart? I would've thought that if the volume isn't there, then there's not much they can, unless it's off market transactions (but then they would not be in your charts? And why would someone take the other side in size off market if the big players know something?)

Thank you!

 

Usually, when a big player wants to get out, he would either find another big player for a block trade, or he would pay someone to say bullish things about it to attract less sophisticated investors to take over the position. (Maloni's Collins ruling rumor definitely counts. CNBC talking heads. Possibly ACG  Analytics video as well). This is why when everyone is expecting something to happen, it usually goes the other way. This "something everyone is expecting" is likely the lie that the big player has manufactured to facilitate his own position moving effort. And as stock drifts lower each day, he would release "planned" bullish news on schedule to support the faith of these investors and may even trick them to think it is a lower and better price to add.

 

I don't know about off market transactions, but dark pool trades are not recording intra day, but they have to be reported a bit after market close on that day. The volume is low since June, but who knows if they FINISHED selling. Sometimes it drifts lower and lower before the next big volume drop. Check out SHSP for example.

 

Checkout this twit:

ACG Analytics

@ACGAnalytics

Bedtime in DC. #NWS to end as part of new negotiated Amendment in 4th quarter

 

Is ACG Analytics running charity and be so nice that they would care about mundane investors like you and me making money in GSEs? It reads like material information, so why would they share it for free instead of distributing that among their paid clients?

 

 

I previously said I'd stop sharing my TA view because I knew people are gonna get pissed off. There were a few folks who said it was helpful so I posted again, and this time it upsets even more people. So I guess it is time for me to stop making this thread "laughable". Good luck guys! I think we are at a critical juncture and the bullish setup scenario isn't dead, but I assign it a 30% probability.

 

if an institutional investor asked a competent securities lawyer about the conduct you just described, the II would be advised that this is market manipulation under the securities exchange act of 1934.  I am not saying the conduct you described doesn't happen, it is just that the II would be engaging in unlawful behavior.

 

but I dont understand your basic point.  block trades get publicly reported.  there is no dark underground unreported securities market.

 

Got it thank you. Yeah I wasn't sure if there could be block trades not reported. My understanding is that they can't, and dark pool trades are required to be reported after market close. My point is that someone might have known something negative and started selling, even though they may not have finished selling, based on the dwindling volume. While technical indicators like two moving average crossing each other is complete junk, there are valuable ones that could give you a tip off. For example, count the number of shares each day when bid was hit vs ask was hit. That tells you if there are motivated sellers. And if you see that going on continuously for weeks, you know something is not right.

 

My question on what you said regarding "unlawful behavior", does the law say if Kyle Bass or whatever publicly stated that he is very bullish about this, then within how many days, he could not sell his own position?

I have very limited knowledge about the law, but I kinda feel like this is a grey area that's not clearly defined, and it leaves room for these guys to take dirty actions.

 

[Luke 532]

Read earlier this morning that there are rumblings that Mnuchin is thinking of leaving this fall because he is "exasperated on trade". This seems like a real risk IMO since it would most likely serve to dramatically elongate the R&R process, especially if the end to NWS has not been negotiated and announced - new TRSY Sec. would have to get up to speed and might have a very different view than Mnuchin.

 

Anyone with a different view?

 

Where'd you hear that? Thanks in advance.

[Jcmeg35]

https://perspectives.agf.com/a-government-in-paralysis/

"Two of the remaining heavyweights in the Cabinet — Mike Pompeo and Stephen Mnuchin — are thinking of leaving this fall. Pompeo knows that ISIS and the Taliban haven’t been defeated, yet the president wants to disengage. Mnuchin is exasperated on trade, and both are grappling with enormous unfilled vacancies."

 

 

Read earlier this morning that there are rumblings that Mnuchin is thinking of leaving this fall because he is "exasperated on trade". This seems like a real risk IMO since it would most likely serve to dramatically elongate the R&R process, especially if the end to NWS has not been negotiated and announced - new TRSY Sec. would have to get up to speed and might have a very different view than Mnuchin.

 

Anyone with a different view?

 

Where'd you hear that? Thanks in advance.

[Luke 532]

https://perspectives.agf.com/a-government-in-paralysis/

"Two of the remaining heavyweights in the Cabinet — Mike Pompeo and Stephen Mnuchin — are thinking of leaving this fall. Pompeo knows that ISIS and the Taliban haven’t been defeated, yet the president wants to disengage. Mnuchin is exasperated on trade, and both are grappling with enormous unfilled vacancies."

 

Thank you. That would definitely be concerning if he were to leave prior to plan being implemented.

[muscleman]

https://perspectives.agf.com/a-government-in-paralysis/

"Two of the remaining heavyweights in the Cabinet — Mike Pompeo and Stephen Mnuchin — are thinking of leaving this fall. Pompeo knows that ISIS and the Taliban haven’t been defeated, yet the president wants to disengage. Mnuchin is exasperated on trade, and both are grappling with enormous unfilled vacancies."

 

Thank you. That would definitely be concerning if he were to leave prior to plan being implemented.

 

This may explain why my TA reading suddenly went from neutral to negative last week.

[Guest cherzeca]

Mnuchin's leaving would be very bad news.  I would expect him to leave after the 2020 election.  his wife is getting into film production, and I am sure he would like to join her in that.

 

@MM a judge could very well slow walk a dissenting opinion.  this would be unusual since judges are highly professional and collegial.  but in an en banc case which is by definition an addition to a normal workload, this seems possible. as for market manipulation, your original post had an II "pay" someone for doing something that conditions the market in a way advantageous for the II.  this is classic market manipulation.  something short of this (favor bank deposits) can and does go on of course.

[Midas79]

If Mnuchin goes, that is borderline catastrophic in my opinion. It would be nearly impossible to get a new Treasury secretary up to speed, even if he or she is on board with recap and release. The longer this takes the harder it is with election season coming up. The timeline is already tight. I am strongly considering selling 20% of my position right now, and I likely will if the rumor is corroborated.

 

Edit: I can only hope that, if Mnuchin indeed does want out, he gets as much of the recap and release process done as he can before leaving. Ending the NWS, settling the lawsuits, doing something with the seniors if the Fifth Circuit doesn't cancel them, etc.

[allnatural]

Mnuchin leaving will always be a tail risk for this trade. Mick Mulvaney would be the only person in the admin i can think of who would do a good job as replacement on progressing the recap/reform/release agenda given his past views being pro recap/release, anti-NWS, and believing the governments been fully paid back.

[muscleman]

 

@MM a judge could very well slow walk a dissenting opinion.  this would be unusual since judges are highly professional and collegial.  but in an en banc case which is by definition an addition to a normal workload, this seems possible. as for market manipulation, your original post had an II "pay" someone for doing something that conditions the market in a way advantageous for the II.  this is classic market manipulation.  something short of this (favor bank deposits) can and does go on of course.

 

 

But what if there is no money in the process, but just a big player telling his best buddy analyst how much he loved this stock and would like this analyst to share with the world about this great opportunity to make money? Then two days later he “changed” his mind and started selling?

[Guest cherzeca]

Mnuchin leaving will always be a tail risk for this trade. Mick Mulvaney would be the only person in the admin i can think of who would do a good job as replacement on progressing the recap/reform/release agenda given his past views being pro recap/release, anti-NWS, and believing the governments been fully paid back.

 

I hope mnuchin gets some R&R in next few weeks and gets firing on GSEs.  very strange investment:  great recurring cash flows over the last >5 years and we all depend on one guy who has FU money to refrain from saying FU

[Guest cherzeca]

 

@MM a judge could very well slow walk a dissenting opinion.  this would be unusual since judges are highly professional and collegial.  but in an en banc case which is by definition an addition to a normal workload, this seems possible. as for market manipulation, your original post had an II "pay" someone for doing something that conditions the market in a way advantageous for the II.  this is classic market manipulation.  something short of this (favor bank deposits) can and does go on of course.

 

this is a pump and dump and these usually involve some sort of quid quo pro

 

 

But what if there is no money in the process, but just a big player telling his best buddy analyst how much he loved this stock and would like this analyst to share with the world about this great opportunity to make money?

[Midas79]

The Mnuchin leaving thing might be overblown, there's this quote from 4 weeks ago.

 

STEVEN MNUCHIN: I'm definitely going to be here with the President for the second term

 

https://www.broadwayworld.com/bwwtv/article/CNBC-Transcript-Treasury-Secretary-Steven-Mnuchin-Speaks-with-CNBCs-SQUAWK-BOX-Today-20190724

 

Naturally Mnuchin cannot guarantee a second Trump term, but he would be abandoning the possibility of continuing as Treasury secretary into that term if he left before next November.

 

Today's comments are more recent, we're not completely out of the woods here.

[hardincap]

I’d fade the Mnuchin leaving trade. It would basically ruin his reputation to leave at such a critical point, not for housing but trade and trump election, and to break his very public commitments. It is very much in his interests to stick it out for another year