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FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.

twacowfca

By twacowfca
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Guest cherzeca

Guest cherzeca

Posted
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you can want peace, but if you are at war, you keep fighting until you shake hands on a deal

muscleman Collaborator

muscleman

Posted
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I certainly am not privy to what the leaders are thinking -- and its reasonable to not want to address this complex task -- but this article's message is not inconsistent with a team who is waiting on a Collins verdict and is attempting to buy time. 

 

Is it waiting for Collins or is it trying to delay Collins?

Luke 532 Newbie

Luke 532

Posted
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More delays.  Not entirely unexpected, but frustrating for sure...

 

Perhaps most significantly, Treasury and FHFA could halt a policy that requires the companies to send nearly all their earnings to the Treasury. Though one person familiar with the matter cautioned that ending the so-called profit sweep is unlikely to happen this year.

 

Signs that the administration is moving more slowly than anticipated are evident. The Treasury is yet to issue a long-awaited report on its plan for getting Fannie and Freddie out of the government’s grip, despite Calabria saying he hoped it would be released by the end of June. Now, agencies are aiming to get the document out within the next couple of months, according to people familiar with the matter.

 

By the way, not sure if this matters, but Josh Rosner is calling B.S. on this article:

 

muscleman Collaborator

muscleman

Posted
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More delays.  Not entirely unexpected, but frustrating for sure...

 

Perhaps most significantly, Treasury and FHFA could halt a policy that requires the companies to send nearly all their earnings to the Treasury. Though one person familiar with the matter cautioned that ending the so-called profit sweep is unlikely to happen this year.

 

Signs that the administration is moving more slowly than anticipated are evident. The Treasury is yet to issue a long-awaited report on its plan for getting Fannie and Freddie out of the government’s grip, despite Calabria saying he hoped it would be released by the end of June. Now, agencies are aiming to get the document out within the next couple of months, according to people familiar with the matter.

 

By the way, not sure if this matters, but Josh Rosner is calling B.S. on this article:

 

Disappointing for sure. But I don’t think it is BS. Remember Calabria’s tone changed from IPO in Q1 next year to Hopefully sometime next year? That’s good enough indication for me to completely unload even if I were still a pure FA investor. If I were still hoping on Collins, at least I’d sell half.

Luke 532 Newbie

Luke 532

Posted
Posted

Disappointing for sure. But I don’t think it is BS. Remember Calabria’s tone changed from IPO in Q1 next year to Hopefully sometime next year? That’s good enough indication for me to completely unload even if I were still a pure FA investor. If I were still hoping on Collins, at least I’d sell half.

 

Sure, but I am more disappointed on the report being delayed.  It's likely not the actual IPO taking place that moves the stock, it's the plan to do so officially being announced (along with other details involving the capital raise, how to deal with the lawsuits, etc.). 

 

I'm not into trying to time things like you are, so there's no way I'd sell a single share given the price relative to par and what I believe is a very strong thesis for the preferred shares.

 

And for what it's worth, I fully expect the share prices to fall based on people selling some or all of their position.  It's easier to sell a position when it's small.  I'd rather have the price temporarily fluctuate against me than sell a large position that would take a long time to reacquire and likely at higher prices given the illiquid nature of the preferreds.

orthopa Explorer

orthopa

Posted
Posted

Lots of chatter/opinions from the "other side" lately huh? As Rosner points out no one is named and and like the IMF article just negative fluff with no real basis. Not much to read into IMO other then there must be a TON of pressure behind the scenes against everything we as shareholder want OR a full court press by the opposition as a last gasp.

 

What I have found interesting is you havent heard/cant hear much from "our side" as those that would benefit greatly surely would be cast in a negative light as part of the hedge fund windfall crowd. Thus all you get is dialogue from calabria etc but nothing else. Let the price goes down, wont affect the end product.

 

Either the plan comes out in a couple months, FHFA capital rules come out soon, the NWS stops this fall, capital build/IPO happens in Q1-Q2 of 2020 or this gets delayed till after the election.

hardincap Newbie

hardincap

Posted
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Were Otting's comments on the record?

 

Did you not read about a month ago when it was said Phillips would leave but not until he was done?  It's not like his leaving was in the middle of the night... it was announced at least a few weeks before he departed.

 

Sure, confirmation bias is a b****, but mere confirmation from those calling the shots is a beautiful thing.

 

luke, how do you explain the continued delays and reneging of previously committed timelines and positions (collins about-face)?

Luke 532 Newbie

Luke 532

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Posted

Were Otting's comments on the record?

 

Did you not read about a month ago when it was said Phillips would leave but not until he was done?  It's not like his leaving was in the middle of the night... it was announced at least a few weeks before he departed.

 

Sure, confirmation bias is a b****, but mere confirmation from those calling the shots is a beautiful thing.

 

luke, how do you explain the continued delays and reneging of previously committed timelines and positions (collins about-face)?

 

I explain the continued delays by saying I was wrong.  Wrong on the timing of this but I still haven't read anything that says the preferreds get hurt long-term.  May take longer than I had hoped, but I don't think the thesis has changed.

muscleman Collaborator

muscleman

Posted
Posted

Disappointing for sure. But I don’t think it is BS. Remember Calabria’s tone changed from IPO in Q1 next year to Hopefully sometime next year? That’s good enough indication for me to completely unload even if I were still a pure FA investor. If I were still hoping on Collins, at least I’d sell half.

 

Sure, but I am more disappointed on the report being delayed.  It's likely not the actual IPO taking place that moves the stock, it's the plan to do so officially being announced (along with other details involving the capital raise, how to deal with the lawsuits, etc.). 

 

I'm not into trying to time things like you are, so there's no way I'd sell a single share given the price relative to par and what I believe is a very strong thesis for the preferred shares.

 

And for what it's worth, I fully expect the share prices to fall based on people selling some or all of their position.  It's easier to sell a position when it's small.  I'd rather have the price temporarily fluctuate against me than sell a large position that would take a long time to reacquire and likely at higher prices given the illiquid nature of the preferreds.

 

 

what you mentioned about illiquidity is exactly what I felt last year. I have the ability to time stocks but a lot of times I didn’t sell because of the same reason you mentioned and then it just kept falling and falling and eventually I got out when it was way down. Not related to GSEs but other super illiquid name in general. So this year I am only focusing on stocks that I can build positions within one day.

 

A few days ago when people were Taunting me and saying down 7% from the top is nothing to worry about, now it is down another 14% today. Be very careful of the crack of the canary of the coal mine situation. My biggest shortcoming as a value investor was not knowing when to sell. Almost the entire value investing literature is teaching how to buy and what to buy (not even when to buy). Regarding selling, there is almost no mention of that. Last year my primary focus was to figure that out.

hardincap Newbie

hardincap

Posted
Posted

IMO, you are further wrong to think the pref thesis still holds. Because prefs have a capped return, timing has to be a part of the thesis, so if you are wrong on timing, the thesis is wrong. so to clarify your thesis then, how long do you think is "longer than I had hoped"?

Luke 532 Newbie

Luke 532

Posted
Posted

A few days ago when people were Taunting me and saying down 7% from the top is nothing to worry about, now it is down another 14% today. Be very careful of the crack of the canary of the coal mine situation. My biggest shortcoming as a value investor was not knowing when to sell. Almost the entire value investing literature is teaching how to buy and what to buy (not even when to buy). Regarding selling, there is almost no mention of that. Last year my primary focus was to figure that out.

 

I want to be clear I was never taunting you.  Others maybe were, but I wasn't.

 

Your points are appreciated but they still have to do with pricing of a security and don't take into account the thesis of the underlying company.  The stocks could be down 50% today, does that change the thesis?  No.  The stocks could be up 50% today, but again doesn't change the thesis.  As a value investor the buy price and sell price matter to me, what happens in the interim is irrelevant. 

 

I think most value investors would tell you to sell when the stock is at or near intrinsic value.  It's probably not discussed more because it seems like that would be the only logical place for someone in the value investing philosophy to sell... we wouldn't hold it past intrinsic value, and we wouldn't be tempted to sell it at a steep discount from intrinsic value.

Luke 532 Newbie

Luke 532

Posted
Posted

IMO, you are further wrong to think the pref thesis still holds. Because prefs have a capped return, timing has to be a part of the thesis, so if you are wrong on timing, the thesis is wrong. so to clarify your thesis then, how long do you think is "longer than I had hoped"?

 

You think the pref thesis is shot? 

 

I hear what you're saying regarding timing, hardincap.  If this were trading much closer to par then timing would be a much bigger issue in terms of rate of return.  But trading at half or less than half of par the favorable outcome would dwarf the market even if it took a very long time. 

orthopa Explorer

orthopa

Posted
Posted

IMO, you are further wrong to think the pref thesis still holds. Because prefs have a capped return, timing has to be a part of the thesis, so if you are wrong on timing, the thesis is wrong. so to clarify your thesis then, how long do you think is "longer than I had hoped"?

 

Someone is really negative now! ;)

 

Unless someone is involved in the process directly how do you expect them to give an accurate estimate? Its would be a blind guess and useless. Thus the question is useless.

 

Preferred capped at par at yesterdays prices ~100% upside. So if it takes 3 years 100% in years not a good return?

Luke 532 Newbie

Luke 532

Posted
Posted

also, how do you (and others here) interpret craig's departure now?

 

Definitely brings into question whether his work was completed or not.  He may have completed as much as he could, or perhaps he was fed up with the process. 

 

I also wouldn't completely discount the possibility that articles in the past two days discussing receivership and delay, delay, delay without one high-ranking source or even an anonymous quote were the work of those that have been so adamantly against the GSE's for many years.

Guest cherzeca

Guest cherzeca

Posted
Posted

as I recall Bloomberg pays its reporters more money if they have an effect on the market.  this is crap journalism and it calls into question this reporting.

 

the part I believe in this story is that mnuchin is incredibly stretched and is the linchpin for delivering the treasury report to potus...and for doing just about everything else in this administration.  the speculation that the GSEs are a political football that are best addressed after 2020 election is something I dont believe.  I think this is Bloomberg reporters trying to make more money by quoting an unnamed source who isn't in charge of anything.

 

I still like the risk/reward of the junior pref, even more now at this price. and @hardincap. I expect a conversion so that the return will not be capped

 

muscleman Collaborator

muscleman

Posted
Posted

A few days ago when people were Taunting me and saying down 7% from the top is nothing to worry about, now it is down another 14% today. Be very careful of the crack of the canary of the coal mine situation. My biggest shortcoming as a value investor was not knowing when to sell. Almost the entire value investing literature is teaching how to buy and what to buy (not even when to buy). Regarding selling, there is almost no mention of that. Last year my primary focus was to figure that out.

 

I want to be clear I was never taunting you.  Others maybe were, but I wasn't.

 

Your points are appreciated but they still have to do with pricing of a security and don't take into account the thesis of the underlying company.  The stocks could be down 50% today, does that change the thesis?  No.  The stocks could be up 50% today, but again doesn't change the thesis.  As a value investor the buy price and sell price matter to me, what happens in the interim is irrelevant. 

 

I think most value investors would tell you to sell when the stock is at or near intrinsic value.  It's probably not discussed more because it seems like that would be the only logical place for someone in the value investing philosophy to sell... we wouldn't hold it past intrinsic value, and we wouldn't be tempted to sell it at a steep discount from intrinsic value.

 

I never felt like you taunted me. Don’t worry about that.

However a 50% drop of a stock sometimes bounces back and sometimes not. By claiming a 50% drop has nothing to impact on its fundamentals is a flawed statement because I’ve seen a lot of times when bad news come out later after the stock moves. It is too idealistic to assume others know the same information to act on as you are. A lot of times these big drops tell you that someone knows something that you don’t know. But also sometime like the FMCKJ top where they probably already know these info but started selling day after day on low volume to avoid panicking others to also sell with them. That’s the crack of the canary of the coal mine type top.

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