FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.

[hardincap]

phillips had been consistent about returning to private sector after 2 years.  also was just awarded treasury's Alexander Hamilton award.  still sticking with the fired scenario?

 

never meant to insinuate craig was fired. simplest explanation imo is that there was/is internal resistance within admin, as tim howard speculates, and craig either got fed up, protested, or saw nothing more he could do so he resigned

[Guest cherzeca]

so think it out. lets say Tim howard is right and there are pro-tbtf guys in the treasury, fed and even WH...what have they been asking for?...initially various forms of wind down of GSEs, which only congress could deliver, and congress got nowhere with strong R majorities...now fallback position is multiple guarantors and a fed guaranty...which will be a nonstarter in HFSC and given sen brown's latest comments, not in the offing on a bipartisan basis in SBC...which leaves us with status quo...which I dont think we will have, a delay yes but the status quo for the next year and a half?  doesn't seem like that is Calabria's agenda, not saying that calabria knows how to raise $100B, but that scenario doesn't seem to be likely.

 

my thought is to wait for the plans, which frankly I think will be more general than specific, but potus did call for a delineation of what can be implemented administratively v only by congress, and lets see what the admin starts doing, and then see what if anything congress starts doing

[muscleman]

phillips had been consistent about returning to private sector after 2 years.  also was just awarded treasury's Alexander Hamilton award.  still sticking with the fired scenario?

 

never meant to insinuate craig was fired. simplest explanation imo is that there was/is internal resistance within admin, as tim howard speculates, and craig either got fed up, protested, or saw nothing more he could do so he resigned

 

I don't think Craig was fired, but it is hard to say if he left happily or unhappily, and then Calabria's comment changed from "IPO early next year" to "Hopefully IPO sometime next year" (Something like that. Don't hold me on this). That is a hint that something is changing. On top of that, Otting's 2-4 week promise never materialized.

 

There is an incredible magic force that works on these guys, and works on the court as well. As we know, the Perry Appeal was supposed to be a 2:1 win, but some members here posted rumors that Ginsburg got flipped in the last moment. Could the same happen in the 5th appeal court? They just need to flip 1-2 judges to alter the outcome.

[SnarkyPuppy]

Did you guys forget about the part where Calabria, an extremely calculated individual, went on public TV and reiterated IPO while referencing conversion or par for preferreds like 3 weeks ago? 

 

None of these weird theories would be discussed if the market price hadn't dipped a little bit.

[muscleman]

Did you guys forget about the part where Calabria, an extremely calculated individual, went on public TV and reiterated IPO while referencing conversion or par for preferreds like 3 weeks ago? 

 

None of these weird theories would be discussed if the market price hadn't dipped a little bit.

 

It is more concerning that just "market price dipping". It is normal for a stock to pull back after a good run. What concerned me was the internals of the chart. The behavior of the chart looked like a top instead of a retracement before the continuation of another up move. I am not going to disclose how I use TA to analyze and draw these conclusions. Even if I do, I'll be labelled as voodoo one more time.

[Guest cherzeca]

typically when you do a deal in a normal financial context, you need to concern yourself with parties' rights and incentives, and typically pricing is the way to reach agreement.  when you do a financial transaction in a political context, there are all sorts of extraneous concerns and influences, and it becomes a clusterF unless you have a very coherent core group that can find a political substitute for pricing.  there is not a lot of political transacting going on between admin and congress and, frankly perhaps, within the admin itself.  so this is all muddled and ugly. 

[muscleman]

typically when you do a deal in a normal financial context, you need to concern yourself with parties' rights and incentives, and typically pricing is the way to reach agreement.  when you do a financial transaction in a political context, there are all sorts of extraneous concerns and influences, and it becomes a clusterF unless you have a very coherent core group that can find a political substitute for pricing.  there is not a lot of political transacting going on between admin and congress and, frankly perhaps, within the admin itself.  so this is all muddled and ugly.

 

 

That's true. I am glad I am no longer a pure fundamental investor. Otherwise these endless uncertainties freak me out completely.

[orthopa]

sorry to be blunt, but that is borderline delusional. you might say, perhaps I am the delusional one? could be! but i say, always better to entertain disconfirming narratives (esp when coming from experts with insider knowledge like tim howard) than confirming. good luck everyone.

 

Dont know about delusional but certainly some GSE investor fatigue. The more you think about this saga the more it will drive you nuts.

[orthopa]

Did you guys forget about the part where Calabria, an extremely calculated individual, went on public TV and reiterated IPO while referencing conversion or par for preferreds like 3 weeks ago? 

 

None of these weird theories would be discussed if the market price hadn't dipped a little bit.

 

It is more concerning that just "market price dipping". It is normal for a stock to pull back after a good run. What concerned me was the internals of the chart. The behavior of the chart looked like a top instead of a retracement before the continuation of another up move. I am not going to disclose how I use TA to analyze and draw these conclusions. Even if I do, I'll be labelled as voodoo one more time.

 

I think the internals of the chart for FNMAS as a generic pfd view look like an upturn is coming. The pullback has happened on low volume, MACD looks to be turning up soon, stochs are where a turn around has been before, OBV hasnt falled off a cliff and Accum/Dist looks fine too. Market is waiting for upcoming news.

[orthopa]

It has been slow the last couple of weeks but it could be the quiet before the storm (confirmation bias?). Does not mean anything about the outcome/this investment has changed. Phillips left bc he was/is done with the plan. He was hired to construct a plan, and is gone now bc the plan is at the WH. Not sure how much more you can glean from that. IMO fuck Tim Howard. He only hears/types what he wants to hear and has no more pull then anyone outside of the admin. He is on the outside pushing his agenda on his blog and what benefits him most.

 

Could just be admin waiting for en banc? If so, so be it. It is frustrating to wait long now that the end of June is here but it is what it is. Does not mean plan is off the rails.

[Guest cherzeca]

howard is extremely knowledgeable about GSEs and understands the animus directed to the GSEs by the tbtf crowd.  for sure this colors his views.  there is a difference between what should be done and what is likely to be done, and Tim resists that compromise.  as investors we dont want the perfect to destroy the good.  Tim wants the perfect because he is the smartest guy in the GSE room and is not motivated by an investment return.  I think his blog has made huge strides in attempting to educate people about the facts relating to the GSEs, and has done all GSE investors a great service.

[muscleman]

Did you guys forget about the part where Calabria, an extremely calculated individual, went on public TV and reiterated IPO while referencing conversion or par for preferreds like 3 weeks ago? 

 

None of these weird theories would be discussed if the market price hadn't dipped a little bit.

 

It is more concerning that just "market price dipping". It is normal for a stock to pull back after a good run. What concerned me was the internals of the chart. The behavior of the chart looked like a top instead of a retracement before the continuation of another up move. I am not going to disclose how I use TA to analyze and draw these conclusions. Even if I do, I'll be labelled as voodoo one more time.

 

I think the internals of the chart for FNMAS as a generic pfd view look like an upturn is coming. The pullback has happened on low volume, MACD looks to be turning up soon, stochs are where a turn around has been before, OBV hasnt falled off a cliff and Accum/Dist looks fine too. Market is waiting for upcoming news.

 

 

Just like FA, where different people disagreeing on the same names, TA is the same. I wouldn't mind seeing disagreements with me.

BTW, I haven't found any of these indicators useful. (MACD, stoch, and almost every indicator known.).

[Eye4Valu]

howard is extremely knowledgeable about GSEs and understands the animus directed to the GSEs by the tbtf crowd.  for sure this colors his views.  there is a difference between what should be done and what is likely to be done, and Tim resists that compromise.  as investors we dont want the perfect to destroy the good.  Tim wants the perfect because he is the smartest guy in the GSE room and is not motivated by an investment return.  I think his blog has made huge strides in attempting to educate people about the facts relating to the GSEs, and has done all GSE investors a great service.

 

Well said

[orthopa]

howard is extremely knowledgeable about GSEs and understands the animus directed to the GSEs by the tbtf crowd.  for sure this colors his views.  there is a difference between what should be done and what is likely to be done, and Tim resists that compromise.  as investors we dont want the perfect to destroy the good.  Tim wants the perfect because he is the smartest guy in the GSE room and is not motivated by an investment return.  I think his blog has made huge strides in attempting to educate people about the facts relating to the GSEs, and has done all GSE investors a great service.

 

No question he is most knowledgeable. The problem is if anyone has every brought up an opinion or point contrary to him he deletes it off of his blog and immediately dismisses it. I get that its his blog but sometimes a little back and forth is helpful to evaluate the entire range of outcomes.

[BTShine]

If I had to guess, I'd think the Administration drops big news of their plan regarding the GSEs over the July 4th Holiday.  Doesn't give the media much chance to go nuts over Trump "handing billions of $$$ to his buddies Paulson & Co."  Journalists are on vacation and no one is reading the news while they're at their BBQ, Lake House or Boat. 

 

Akin to Tesla dropping bad news after market close on Friday night. 

[muscleman]

If I had to guess, I'd think the Administration drops big news of their plan regarding the GSEs over the July 4th Holiday.  Doesn't give the media much chance to go nuts over Trump "handing billions of $$$ to his buddies Paulson & Co."  Journalists are on vacation and no one is reading the news while they're at their BBQ, Lake House or Boat. 

 

Akin to Tesla dropping bad news after market close on Friday night.

 

Be careful with wishful thinking like this. I think a more realistic assessment is that there is some magic force probably from the tbtf banks that delays this again. Think about this:

Why is Otting’s 2-4 week comment failed to deliver?

Why did Calabria changed his tone from IPO in the 1st quarter next year to hopefully sometime next year?

[orthopa]

If I had to guess, I'd think the Administration drops big news of their plan regarding the GSEs over the July 4th Holiday.  Doesn't give the media much chance to go nuts over Trump "handing billions of $$$ to his buddies Paulson & Co."  Journalists are on vacation and no one is reading the news while they're at their BBQ, Lake House or Boat. 

 

Akin to Tesla dropping bad news after market close on Friday night.

 

Be careful with wishful thinking like this. I think a more realistic assessment is that there is some magic force probably from the tbtf banks that delays this again. Think about this:

Why is Otting’s 2-4 week comment failed to deliver?

Why did Calabria changed his tone from IPO in the 1st quarter next year to hopefully sometime next year?

 

FWIW the presidential memo outlining the request for a plan did come out in March so it was what ~4 weeks late?  Otting was implying at the time the everyone is one board with what was going to happen. The memo could have been what he was referring to a plan that was coming out.

 

There certainly could be a TBTF force behind the scenes and they can delay all they want but will in the end they will lose. EVERYTHING has lined up for what we as longs have hoped for. Its just may take longer then we thought. What is a couple weeks or month extra? There is a presidential memo requesting a plan that will put $$$ in our pockets and there have been clues along the way with recent comments from Calabria what that may mean in regards to return.

 

All the delay does it speed up the recap in the end. I believe there is a set deadline this is all up against and that is the upcoming election. The longer the delay the harder the recap cram. The big picture is still there. Concerning oneself with every little word and detail will make you crazy.

[orthopa]

I went and looked back in the thread and FWIW since I tend to like patterns last time hardincap got real down on FnF the WH released the presidental memo a couple days later. Maybe we are close! ;) :D

[Guest cherzeca]

delay for the treasury/HUD plans?  do you think the trump administration works like a Swiss watch?

 

scotus just ruled that while the secretary of commerce has broad authority to construct the form and content of the census, he still had to give a reason for the citizenship question under the APA, and the reason given didn't make sense given the record developed by the secretary.

 

in other words, chaos reigns supreme in the trump administration.

 

all ross had to do is explain why he was doing what he was doing, but the record showed the reason offered (help the DOJ implement the voting rights act) was not the real reason...apparently the record showed that ross told DOJ to tell ross to include citizenship question. in other words, BS. 

 

you may or may not like trump admin policies, but no one can argue that it is a well run ship

 

[rros]

Everybody relax... The big picture: back in the days of the Berko run from end of 2012 through Lamberth 2014 the 5 monthly ma contained all retracements. A history of 23 months. Today's 5 MMA for fnmas stands at $11.43, for fmckj at $11.31 and for fnmat at $10.74. We are well within normal retracement territory and likely July will test these levels. Preferreds just ran too fast, too strong. Nothing has changed.

[Wiggins]

Question:

What, pray tell, could be in the Treasury plan that is bad for investors in the short to intermediate term?

My thoughts are realistically, nothing. In the short term bullish given that the plan should suggest ending the NWS, probably replace it with a periodic commitment fee. In the long term, probably a wish list of very bank friendly legislative suggestions...

[muscleman]

Everybody relax... The big picture: back in the days of the Berko run from end of 2012 through Lamberth 2014 the 5 monthly ma contained all retracements. A history of 23 months. Today's 5 MMA for fnmas stands at $11.43, for fmckj at $11.31 and for fnmat at $10.74. We are well within normal retracement territory and likely July will test these levels. Preferreds just ran too fast, too strong. Nothing has changed.

 

No intention for insult, but if this is the kind of technical analysis you do, no wonder why you guys all think TA is just non-sense and voodoo.  :o

[Wiggins]

@muscleman

 

I haven't seen any evidence that everyone thinks TA is voodoo. I think many don't understand what you do is all. What I have seen is that some people are curious about it, myself included. And I generally enjoy your posts.

Why don't you ever explain what you're doing, or provide a link to some illustrative instructional info?

 

 

Everybody relax... The big picture: back in the days of the Berko run from end of 2012 through Lamberth 2014 the 5 monthly ma contained all retracements. A history of 23 months. Today's 5 MMA for fnmas stands at $11.43, for fmckj at $11.31 and for fnmat at $10.74. We are well within normal retracement territory and likely July will test these levels. Preferreds just ran too fast, too strong. Nothing has changed.

 

No intention for insult, but if this is the kind of technical analysis you do, no wonder why you guys all think TA is just non-sense and voodoo.  :o

[Guest cherzeca]

@muscleman

 

I haven't seen any evidence that everyone thinks TA is voodoo. I think many don't understand what you do is all. What I have seen is that some people are curious about it, myself included. And I generally enjoy your posts.

Why don't you ever explain what you're doing, or provide a link to some illustrative instructional info?

 

 

Everybody relax... The big picture: back in the days of the Berko run from end of 2012 through Lamberth 2014 the 5 monthly ma contained all retracements. A history of 23 months. Today's 5 MMA for fnmas stands at $11.43, for fmckj at $11.31 and for fnmat at $10.74. We are well within normal retracement territory and likely July will test these levels. Preferreds just ran too fast, too strong. Nothing has changed.

 

No intention for insult, but if this is the kind of technical analysis you do, no wonder why you guys all think TA is just non-sense and voodoo.  :o

 

I think all investors (especially in GSEs) are trying to predict future events under conditions of uncertainty.  I typically use my research and life experience to make this analysis...very subjective.  I suppose reading charts is more objective, until you hear all of the subjective discussion about what is the right why to do TA.  I have seen TA that makes very precise assertions about future action and this is the part that seems delving into black magic.  but if it keeps you sane and even makes some money for you I'm all for it...for you

[muscleman]

@muscleman

 

I haven't seen any evidence that everyone thinks TA is voodoo. I think many don't understand what you do is all. What I have seen is that some people are curious about it, myself included. And I generally enjoy your posts.

Why don't you ever explain what you're doing, or provide a link to some illustrative instructional info?

 

 

Everybody relax... The big picture: back in the days of the Berko run from end of 2012 through Lamberth 2014 the 5 monthly ma contained all retracements. A history of 23 months. Today's 5 MMA for fnmas stands at $11.43, for fmckj at $11.31 and for fnmat at $10.74. We are well within normal retracement territory and likely July will test these levels. Preferreds just ran too fast, too strong. Nothing has changed.

 

No intention for insult, but if this is the kind of technical analysis you do, no wonder why you guys all think TA is just non-sense and voodoo.  :o

 

I think all investors (especially in GSEs) are trying to predict future events under conditions of uncertainty.  I typically use my research and life experience to make this analysis...very subjective.  I suppose reading charts is more objective, until you hear all of the subjective discussion about what is the right why to do TA.  I have seen TA that makes very precise assertions about future action and this is the part that seems delving into black magic.  but if it keeps you sane and even makes some money for you I'm all for it...for you

 

 

There are lots of naive TA traders who are new to the market and just learned the magic of buying a stock because one fast moving average cross a slow moving average, or a stochastic indicator is oversold. Those things are complete non-sense and voodoo.

 

I used to be that kind of guy when I was 18, and got my whole forex account wiped out. (only $800 though, but still meaningful even how young I was and how little I earn when I was in China).

I gave up TA completely for a decade, and learned FA really hard, until I realized that I am really not the type of guy who can sit tight reading 10-Ks 100 hours a week.

 

Then I came back to TA and tried to study it with a different angle, and I like what I am doing so far.