FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.

[Guest cherzeca]

why would they invest so as to destroy their current investment.

 

If the terms of the new Senior Pref are good enough they might not care about their current Junior Pref position.

 

fuggedahboudit

[Luke 532]

I don't think it will happen, but it's a good practice at this juncture to think what out-of-left-field actions that might happen to hurt junior prefs. I appreciate Snarky for bringing it up.

[SnarkyPuppy]

Right-  I don't think it's likely but it would be a way of recapping them very quickly ahead of elections.  Just trying to come up with some unique ways we can get f'cked. 

[rros]

Right-  I don't think it's likely but it would be a way of recapping them very quickly ahead of elections.  Just trying to come up with some unique ways we can get f'cked.

The most unique would be investors shying away.

 

It already happened once.

 

FMCKJ, FNMAS issued at the end of 07 and FNMAT on 5/08 with yields of 8%+ each were an indication of markets drying up to Hank Paulson. By May, he knew there was no more private capital to be raised. The more this extends and the closer we get to the next crisis, the more remote the chances of seeing any kind of IPO.

[Guest cherzeca]

@rros. Yes bad execution in a bad market. And with Calabria spouting off this is not how well executed capital raises are done

[orthopa]

Both common and prfd not liking presumably Mnuchins comments today. Maybe soon time to buy more if your so inclined.

 

I dont see the incentive to screw jr prfd shareholders in a private capital recap situation. If a new sweetheart Prfd is issued then Jrs maybe forced to convert at no option but right now those running the show who are involved private capital wise hold Jr Prfd. These guys are not idiots either and not going to standby while others sweep in to get a sweetheart deal.  The capital raising is going to be hard enough as it is without pissing off certain groups of potential capital.

[DocSnowball]

Both common and prfd not liking presumably Mnuchins comments today. Maybe soon time to buy more if your so inclined.

 

I dont see the incentive to screw jr prfd shareholders in a private capital recap situation. If a new sweetheart Prfd is issued then Jrs maybe forced to convert at no option but right now those running the show who are involved private capital wise hold Jr Prfd. These guys are not idiots either and not going to standby while others sweep in to get a sweetheart deal.  The capital raising is going to be hard enough as it is without pissing off certain groups of potential capital.

 

Agree on preferred. Personally I have little hope from the legislative side given what's transpired so far, esp Collins. Waiting to buy second half of a 10% position after Collins if the opportunity arrives. Lamberth's opinion on FHFA needing to fairly represent shareholders in any negotiation with Treasury is a silver lining as the capital build unfolds; at the very least they won't want to take actions that generate even more lawsuits rather then making them go away.

[Guest cherzeca]

bought more fnmas this morning. Mnuchin's comments consistent with what he has said in past.  get GSEs out of conservatorship, but we need "reform" and it would be great if congress could give an explicit guarantee. Bloomberg happy to spin it negatively in their article

 

EDIT:  this is a muscleman point really, but I think the chart needed some release, a cathartic, before moving up, even with good news such as a favorable collins ruling and a treasury plan that makes some sense (though we can now expect it to also call congress to act).  Mnuchin's statement in Japan, reported just by Bloomberg as far as I can see and we know bbg is anti-gse, was a nothing burger imo but the market just needed to flush out some LIFOs and set the stage for next move...hopefully up

[hardincap]

bought more fnmas this morning. Mnuchin's comments consistent with what he has said in past.  get GSEs out of conservatorship, but we need "reform" and it would be great if congress could give an explicit guarantee. Bloomberg happy to spin it negatively in their article

 

He said housing reform is a necessary condition for releasing the companies. I dont recall him saying that before? only congress can do housing reform, so back to square one?

[Guest cherzeca]

I have seen "reform" mean different things to different people.  its like the word "privatize". yes it could mean that congress has to act first, and it also could mean some way of making permanent the reforms that fhfa has implemented during conservatorship...by regulation or more likely a contractual agreement in the amendment to the SPSA.  the best answer to your question is to see what the treasury plan says, but even after that, to watch what fhfa and treasury do (and congress not do).  TINA

[Guest cherzeca]

I have been thinking lately that all GSE shareholders should be wildly in favor of a congressional act that did the two things that calabria and Mnuchin have mentioned:  expand fhfa authority to license more charters, and implement some type of catastrophic guarantee on mbs.

 

I dont see startups, even organized by large financial institutions, presenting a significant competitive risk to the GSEs (how may startups successfully attack a $5T duopoly?), and a govt guarantee would lower GSE borrowing rates.  where are the tears in this scenario? 

 

I just dont see congress acting, point one, but point two is that I dont think calabria and mnuchin expect congress to act in the next year and a half, so all this talk is just eyewash...or as Taleb would say, tawk

[muscleman]

bought more fnmas this morning. Mnuchin's comments consistent with what he has said in past.  get GSEs out of conservatorship, but we need "reform" and it would be great if congress could give an explicit guarantee. Bloomberg happy to spin it negatively in their article

 

EDIT:  this is a muscleman point really, but I think the chart needed some release, a cathartic, before moving up, even with good news such as a favorable collins ruling and a treasury plan that makes some sense (though we can now expect it to also call congress to act).  Mnuchin's statement in Japan, reported just by Bloomberg as far as I can see and we know bbg is anti-gse, was a nothing burger imo but the market just needed to flush out some LIFOs and set the stage for next move...hopefully up

 

I agree. A lot of people laugh at technical analysis and say they are just non-sense. I think that's true with a lot of naive TAs who just learned the magic of "Slow moving average crossing faster MA", or buying when "RSI is oversold". Those things are completely non-sense to me as well.

 

Part of what I focus on is how price reacts to these bashing articles. It is very common for anyone to write up any kind of positive or negative opinions, and a lot of times these were written for a purpose. I still remember the day when Fiat Chrysler merger was announced, which was a huge positive for Fiat, and WSJ put out 8 articles on that same day to bash.

 

 

[hardincap]

i think there is a non trivial chance that the treasury plan calls for congress to enact housing reform as a last step in the process of releasing the gses. mnuchin's statement on its face highlights that risk and as we see today it was a negative surprise, as markets were primed for quick recap and release. what mnuchion actually meant, we'll find out soon enough

[Guest cherzeca]

i think there is a non trivial chance that the treasury plan calls for congress to enact housing reform as a last step in the process of releasing the gses. mnuchin's statement on its face highlights that risk and as we see today it was a negative surprise, as markets were primed for quick recap and release. what mnuchion actually meant, we'll find out soon enough

 

there is a nontrivial risk of many things screwing up the GSEs as we have found over past 5 years.  as for Mnuchin's "statement," all I saw was Bloomberg reporting on a side press availability while mnuchin was in Japan.  there were quotes about reform and private/public capital, but I dont see something that looks like a "statement".  let's see what the treasury plan says (which itself will have been written by committee and have things in there we will not like)

[orthopa]

As cherzeca noted with the LIFOs its safe to say there is ~10% premium of the common price at any time and 5-8% in the preferred of fast money that is looking for a surprise article or action. They sold today on the BB article. Who cares.

 

Mnuchin has always been the stronger voice for "congressional action" and it seems Calabria is the counterweight to that. I think its safe to assume the treasuries proposal is going to call for an explicit guarantee which maybe the extent of any congressional action that is called for. The BB article also mentioned executive action? Not sure if Trump could sign into law some of the reform Mnuchin wants but if true that is an angle I never thought about.

 

The article today still doesnt change ending the NWS by year end, IPO early 2020, par vs conversion comment from calabria etc.

[Guest cherzeca]

Buffett's be greedy when others are fearful comment comes to mind.  simple but never easy

[hardincap]

Buffett's be greedy when others are fearful comment comes to mind.  simple but never easy

 

his idea of greedy is getting convertible preferred with 10% dividend in companies with fortress balance sheets at depressed share prices. he wouldnt touch such a speculative investment as the gses with a 10 foot pole.

[allnatural]

Just highlighting Mnuchin's full comment re: GSE reform during Senate hearing 2 weeks ago.

 

"I think a lot can be done administratively, we're working on that, we're also working on a report for the President. But I would also encourage there is an opportunity for congress on a bipartisan basis to make some significant reforms. These were not entities that were intended to be under government control forever and funded by taxpayer money forever so I hope that Congress would look at this with us but if not we will do things administratively ... this is a priority of ours"

 

“Our fundamental view is that there should be risk capital in front the government’s money. And whether that’s a government guarantee on securities or treasury line, fundamentally there should be private risk capital that supports a a liquid 30 year mortgage market.”"

[Guest cherzeca]

@hardincap

 

"i think there is a non trivial chance that the treasury plan calls for congress to enact housing reform as a last step in the process of releasing the gses."

 

I expect the treasury plan to call for things from congress that nobody expects to see, at least until after 2020 election.  where I think we disagree is that I dont think the treasury plan will explicitly call for a govt guarantee as a condition for release from C.  this is up to fhfa director calabria who has stated that his touchstone for release from C is capital levels.  so I think there will be multiple balls up in the air, with congress called to act and stirring and stumbling around, but as I said, if congress did in fact act against all expectation, expanded charters and a govt guarantee should be just fine with GSEs.  calabria could always "shrink the GSE footprint" on his own, but he has said that he doesn't see withdrawing from multifamily at this point and doesn't see accelerating the removal of the QM patch.  so there are risks all around, but this mnuchin interview is a nothing burger imo

[muscleman]

i think there is a non trivial chance that the treasury plan calls for congress to enact housing reform as a last step in the process of releasing the gses. mnuchin's statement on its face highlights that risk and as we see today it was a negative surprise, as markets were primed for quick recap and release. what mnuchion actually meant, we'll find out soon enough

 

there is a nontrivial risk of many things screwing up the GSEs as we have found over past 5 years.  as for Mnuchin's "statement," all I saw was Bloomberg reporting on a side press availability while mnuchin was in Japan.  there were quotes about reform and private/public capital, but I dont see something that looks like a "statement".  let's see what the treasury plan says (which itself will have been written by committee and have things in there we will not like)

 

 

This is why I focus on technicals. There are way too many things that I like and way too many things that I don't like, and in the end all these information clogs up my brain's and I would end up freezing up without doing anything. There are definitely a lot of smart people who work hard and comb through all these complex clues, but not my brain.

 

[Guest cherzeca]

Buffett's be greedy when others are fearful comment comes to mind.  simple but never easy

 

his idea of greedy is getting convertible preferred with 10% dividend in companies with fortress balance sheets at depressed share prices. he wouldnt touch such a speculative investment as the gses with a 10 foot pole.

 

I was referring to his quote as possible advice for what we may want to do, not a prediction for what he will do

[hardincap]

yes im saying if we were to follow his advice in earnest, we wouldnt even be in this thread :P

 

and frankly with the sp having hit 50% of par, i think there are more interesting opportunities elsewhere. the best opportunities are always in compounders that can be held for decades, as opposed to capped upside where you have to harvest (and pay tax on) the gains then find something new

[Cox022]

https://www.abalert.com/search.pl?ARTICLE=183913

 

I know nothing about this website and maybe its b.s., just sharing a link i came across on twitter.  This article reports that a shareholder 'spoke' with Calabria last week.  The article uses pretty strong, high-confidence language that an IPO will happen.

 

Obviously this can't be verified so I don't know how to judge how meaningful this is. 

[muscleman]

https://www.abalert.com/search.pl?ARTICLE=183913

 

I know nothing about this website and maybe its b.s., just sharing a link i came across on twitter.  This article reports that a shareholder 'spoke' with Calabria last week.  The article uses pretty strong, high-confidence language that an IPO will happen.

 

Obviously this can't be verified so I don't know how to judge how meaningful this is.

 

 

You must be kidding me............ You guys trust this kind of fake sources more than Technical analysis? If you ever think TA is non-sense, then this kind of fake sources as 1000% more non-sense.  :o

[allnatural]

This is credible source with a lot of insight into alternative asset classes (including hedge funds). It's ~$4.5k/yr and lot of industry insiders subscribe.

 

https://www.abalert.com/search.pl?ARTICLE=183913

 

I know nothing about this website and maybe its b.s., just sharing a link i came across on twitter.  This article reports that a shareholder 'spoke' with Calabria last week.  The article uses pretty strong, high-confidence language that an IPO will happen.

 

Obviously this can't be verified so I don't know how to judge how meaningful this is.