FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.

[Guest cherzeca]

Corker and Trump really going at it this morning. #bullish

 

this escalated quickly.  Corker's comments crossed the line this week and so a response was certainly incoming.  but this is not repairable at this point and corker will likely become popular with the press.

 

trump cant seem to keep too many friends around

 

Corker must have small hands

[rros]

Corker and Trump really going at it this morning. #bullish

 

this escalated quickly.  Corker's comments crossed the line this week and so a response was certainly incoming.  but this is not repairable at this point and corker will likely become popular with the press.

 

trump cant seem to keep too many friends around

Trump has a ton of support from voters. Making sense of the irrational is not easy but it is as real as anything else. Even when most policies might work against his voters a popular speech based on a popular narrative - all under the name of a movement- is so pervasive that it prevails over failed policies. The crowd will not see they may be shooting themselves in their feet and continue to irrationally support their leader. 

 

One of the most powerful popular movements in history was founded/created by a colonel in Argentina, Juan D. Peron, back in the mid 40's. His first wife, Evita, is probably a more familiar name. The movement he created -mostly based on the blue collar segment but with sparkles of elites here and there- not only exists today, it is as powerful as it was back then.

 

All it will take for Trump to rally the crowd is to make a little speech in mid-west tiny town America and Corker gets buried. No matter how much CNN appearances he gets. It looks to me it is Corker who doesn't understand what is happening.

 

Military people, and needless to say Trump, also understand incredibly well popular sentiment and the madness of the masses. It is no surprise he surrounded himself with the military. Trump and his generals are in this together. Tillerson may depart but none of the other guys. And Corker will not be part of this administration now or ever. He is not getting it and is about to risk a lot.

 

[Guest cherzeca]

@rros

 

I agree. Corker is digging his own hole. But to Doug's point how effective is corker’s voice on housing reform now?

[investorG]

based on what we know now, does anyone guess that the remaining documents are potentially toxic enough to warrant settlement talks prior to handing them over early next month?  at this point, I guess a settlement would be either a voluntary tender closer to par and/or an agreement to retire sr preferred post jan1?

[Guest cherzeca]

based on what we know now, does anyone guess that the remaining documents are potentially toxic enough to warrant settlement talks prior to handing them over early next month?  at this point, I guess a settlement would be either a voluntary tender closer to par and/or an agreement to retire sr preferred post jan1?

 

I think the remaining docs have to be at least as interesting as the prior docs and likely more so. But so what?  All of the actors have left and DOJ is just playing things out. Sessions has shown no interest in changing course.

[investorG]

based on what we know now, does anyone guess that the remaining documents are potentially toxic enough to warrant settlement talks prior to handing them over early next month?  at this point, I guess a settlement would be either a voluntary tender closer to par and/or an agreement to retire sr preferred post jan1?

 

I think the remaining docs have to be at least as interesting as the prior docs and likely more so. But so what?  All of the actors have left and DOJ is just playing things out. Sessions has shown no interest in changing course.

 

ok fair enough. i'll use that as a base case.  but if it's really bad (explicit commentary on GSE DTA windfalls paying Obamacare cost sharing subsidies?) then who knows.  sessions (and mnuchin indirectly) now owns this, having defended it for 8 months; they might prefer the documents remain hidden even if it wasn't their misdoings.  also, as tom cotton said a few months ago, it's difficult for congress to evaluate reform costs with these cases still outstanding.   

 

 

[Midas79]

If Trump decides that he really wants to spite Corker and have the last word, he can come out on the side of the GSEs. I find this quite unlikely but it adds to the list of potential positive black swan events.

[rros]

I am of two minds re Corker. Although I still think Trump has the *voters* card and the popular narrative on his side helping him exert leverage it is also possible Corker has acquired new power. Not running for the Senate he now feels free to enlist other Republicans against Trump, who in turn has lost any possible control over Corker by him not running for re-election. How may this affect housing reform and our fate I have no idea.

[Guest cherzeca]

I am of two minds re Corker. Although I still think Trump has the *voters* card and the popular narrative on his side helping him exert leverage it is also possible Corker has acquired new power. Not running for the Senate he now feels free to enlist other Republicans against Trump, who in turn has lost any possible control over Corker by him not running for re-election. How may this affect housing reform and our fate I have no idea.

 

disagree.  no lame duck is going to enlist other republicans against trump unless they are lame duck themselves, or unless corker announces soon that he will challenge trump for potus in 2020.  that would create some chaos

[rros]

I am of two minds re Corker. Although I still think Trump has the *voters* card and the popular narrative on his side helping him exert leverage it is also possible Corker has acquired new power. Not running for the Senate he now feels free to enlist other Republicans against Trump, who in turn has lost any possible control over Corker by him not running for re-election. How may this affect housing reform and our fate I have no idea.

 

disagree.  no lame duck is going to enlist other republicans against trump unless they are lame duck themselves, or unless corker announces soon that he will challenge trump for potus in 2020.  that would create some chaos

Oh.. ok. That makes more sense.

[Luke 532]

https://www.insidemortgagefinance.com/imfnews/1_1208/daily/-1000043172-1.html#Login

 

Treasury Department counselor Craig Phillips “is believed to be helping craft a statement of principles on housing finance reform, perhaps to coincide with an executive order from the president tasking agencies to pursue its goals,” according to a new report from Capital Alpha. We heard about a possible GSE-related executive order from President Trump two weeks back, but little in the way of detail…

[Luke 532]

https://amp.theguardian.com/business/2017/oct/10/deloitte-hack-hit-server-containing-emails-from-across-us-government

 

The Guardian has established that a host of clients had material that was made vulnerable by the hack, including:

 

• The US departments of state, energy, homeland security and defence.

 

• The US Postal Service.

 

• The National Institutes of Health.

 

• “Fannie Mae” and “Freddie Mac”, the housing giants that fund and guarantee mortgages in the US.

[rros]

https://amp.theguardian.com/business/2017/oct/10/deloitte-hack-hit-server-containing-emails-from-across-us-government

 

The Guardian has established that a host of clients had material that was made vulnerable by the hack, including:

 

• The US departments of state, energy, homeland security and defence.

 

• The US Postal Service.

 

• The National Institutes of Health.

 

• “Fannie Mae” and “Freddie Mac”, the housing giants that fund and guarantee mortgages in the US.

https://www.americanbanker.com/news/fannie-freddie-not-impacted-by-deloitte-breach-gses-say

[Luke 532]

https://www.americanbanker.com/news/fannie-freddie-not-impacted-by-deloitte-breach-gses-say

 

Thanks for the update.

[rros]

https://www.americanbanker.com/news/fannie-freddie-not-impacted-by-deloitte-breach-gses-say

 

Thanks for the update.

No problem. Here is more:

http://www.themreport.com/daily-dose/10-10-2017/deloitte-says-hack-not-affect-gses

[Midas79]

No problem. Here is more:

http://www.themreport.com/daily-dose/10-10-2017/deloitte-says-hack-not-affect-gses

 

The $64,000 question: were there any emails related to the imposition of conservatorship? The GSEs can say that they were unaffected by the hack, but that could just mean with respect to day-to-day operations and current client data security.

 

It's a true longshot but if FHFA accounting directives from 2008 were hacked, I don't think that is inconsistent with the language used in the articles.

[TwoCitiesCapital]

https://blog.pimco.com/en/2017/10/will-fannie-and-freddie-draw-from-the-treasury-much-ado-about-nothing

 

 

[Guest cherzeca]

trump has just signed an executive order ordering executive agencies to deregulate much of the individual health care insurance market.  trump gave congress ample opportunity to act first, and then acted under his own power to the extent he could after congress failed to act.

 

looks like a great template for fixing the GSEs

[Midas79]

trump has just signed an executive order ordering executive agencies to deregulate much of the individual health care insurance market.  trump gave congress ample opportunity to act first, and then acted under his own power to the extent he could after congress failed to act.

 

looks like a great template for fixing the GSEs

 

And yet Trump kept making the ACA payments up until this EO even though they were successfully challenged in court. This could also be a parallel to the GSEs where the NWS payments keep going through even though Mnuchin (via an order from Trump) could refuse them.

 

I just hope Trump takes less time with the GSEs than he did with health care, though the 9 years of conservatorship and inaction in Congress is plenty of excuse.

[Luke 532]

trump has just signed an executive order ordering executive agencies to deregulate much of the individual health care insurance market.  trump gave congress ample opportunity to act first, and then acted under his own power to the extent he could after congress failed to act.

 

looks like a great template for fixing the GSEs

 

ObamaCare subsidy is going to be gone, too.

http://www.politico.com/story/2017/10/12/trump-obamacare-subsidy-243736

[Guest cherzeca]

from a political science perspective, it is interesting to see how obama and trump are both resorting to pushing executive power to the edge in the face of congressional dysfunction.  congress has become too polarized to act in its intended manner.  for someone who loves the constitution and this country, this is nauseating.  potus is not supposed to be an enacting branch but an executing branch. 

[muscleman]

from a political science perspective, it is interesting to see how obama and trump are both resorting to pushing executive power to the edge in the face of congressional dysfunction.  congress has become too polarized to act in its intended manner.  for someone who loves the constitution and this country, this is nauseating.  potus is not supposed to be an enacting branch but an executing branch.

 

The pendulum is simply swinging from one extreme to the other. When Obama crossed the lines to do all these controversial things, it takes Trump to go to the other extreme to correct it.

[TwoCitiesCapital]

from a political science perspective, it is interesting to see how obama and trump are both resorting to pushing executive power to the edge in the face of congressional dysfunction.  congress has become too polarized to act in its intended manner.  for someone who loves the constitution and this country, this is nauseating.  potus is not supposed to be an enacting branch but an executing branch.

 

The pendulum is simply swinging from one extreme to the other. When Obama crossed the lines to do all these controversial things, it takes Trump to go to the other extreme to correct it.

 

It's not the opposite extreme - it's the same extreme by an opposing party.

 

I tend to agree with Cherzeca. I hated it when Obama did it. I hate it when Trump does it. I hate 90% of the members of Congress, but I also don't know what can be done to fix the system. Congress is simply a reflection of the population - ultimately, the responsibility rests with the people since we're the ones who put these chumps in power.

[Guest cherzeca]

from a political science perspective, it is interesting to see how obama and trump are both resorting to pushing executive power to the edge in the face of congressional dysfunction.  congress has become too polarized to act in its intended manner.  for someone who loves the constitution and this country, this is nauseating.  potus is not supposed to be an enacting branch but an executing branch.

 

The pendulum is simply swinging from one extreme to the other. When Obama crossed the lines to do all these controversial things, it takes Trump to go to the other extreme to correct it.

 

It's not the opposite extreme - it's the same extreme by an opposing party.

 

I tend to agree with Cherzeca. I hated it when Obama did it. I hate it when Trump does it. I hate 90% of the members of Congress, but I also don't know what can be done to fix the system. Congress is simply a reflection of the population - ultimately, the responsibility rests with the people since we're the ones who put these chumps in power.

 

when potus just does what it wants, then you get stupid decisions like the net worth sweep.  sure congress can do dumb things too, but there seems to be more inertia (which is both good and bad)

[Sunrider]

Start by stopping gerrymandering - I read somewhere that some states apparently have gotten rid of that practice, so it can be done.

 

 

from a political science perspective, it is interesting to see how obama and trump are both resorting to pushing executive power to the edge in the face of congressional dysfunction.  congress has become too polarized to act in its intended manner.  for someone who loves the constitution and this country, this is nauseating.  potus is not supposed to be an enacting branch but an executing branch.

 

The pendulum is simply swinging from one extreme to the other. When Obama crossed the lines to do all these controversial things, it takes Trump to go to the other extreme to correct it.

 

It's not the opposite extreme - it's the same extreme by an opposing party.

 

I tend to agree with Cherzeca. I hated it when Obama did it. I hate it when Trump does it. I hate 90% of the members of Congress, but I also don't know what can be done to fix the system. Congress is simply a reflection of the population - ultimately, the responsibility rests with the people since we're the ones who put these chumps in power.