FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.

[Luke 532]

I just get the feeling and maybe I'm completely wrong that the buffer size is going to be a shock and if so they're likely to call the jr's so they can issue new with much lower rates. Or maybe they convert, but at least you still get a par value IMO. At the very least, I don't see how a situation where prfd get a bad deal yet common come out ok. The largest players, friends of Trump and litigants are all prfd so I don't see them just rolling over.

 

+1... and doing this with Junior prefs makes most of the major/big/important lawsuits vanish.  That's a benefit for gov't players like Mnuchin.

[hardincap]

?? who in the world would buy newly issued preferreds?

[Flynnstone5]

?? who in the world would buy newly issued preferreds?

 

If they create a utility model and a do a new offering, who wouldn't?

[hardincap]

buffer will be shocking -> X happens -> utility model and new offering?

 

what is X?

[Midas79]

At the very least, I don't see how a situation where prfd get a bad deal yet common come out ok. The largest players, friends of Trump and litigants are all prfd so I don't see them just rolling over.

 

I agree with the first part. I just think there are plausible scenarios where the junior prefs come out good and the commons come out way better. This is the basis of my "higher upside" opinion.

[Flynnstone5]

"X" is common gets wiped out or heavily diluted. Doesn't make sense to pay divs on jr., decrease earnings and bring down market cap, but it does make sense to call and be able to cover a solid 10% of the capital raise through new issuance of jr. They could avoid not calling and say not paying divs either fro extended period, but that doesn't solve any issues with litigation.

 

Don't agree?

[Guest cherzeca]

I just get the feeling and maybe I'm completely wrong that the buffer size is going to be a shock and if so they're likely to call the jr's so they can issue new with much lower rates. Or maybe they convert, but at least you still get a par value IMO. At the very least, I don't see how a situation where prfd get a bad deal yet common come out ok. The largest players, friends of Trump and litigants are all prfd so I don't see them just rolling over.

 

+1... and doing this with Junior prefs makes most of the major/big/important lawsuits vanish.  That's a benefit for gov't players like Mnuchin.

 

there is no call provision

[hardincap]

"X" is common gets wiped out or heavily diluted. Doesn't make sense to pay divs on jr., decrease earnings and bring down market cap, but it does make sense to call and be able to cover a solid 10% of the capital raise through new issuance of jr. They could avoid not calling and say not paying divs either fro extended period, but that doesn't solve any issues with litigation.

 

Don't agree?

 

who does x? who is they?

[no_free_lunch]

there is no call provision

 

Perhaps it is just a terminology issue but the preferred's can be redeemed.

 

Series R:

 

Optional Redemption by Fannie Mae:

On or after November 21, 2012 at $25 per share plus accrued dividends from the most recent payment date

 

Series S is more complicated, not sure how this would be handled:

 

Optional Redemption by Fannie Mae:

On December 31, 2010, and on each fifth anniversary thereafter, at $25 per share plus accrued dividends from the most recent payment date, whether or not the dividend was declared

 

[investorG]

there is no call provision

 

Perhaps it is just a terminology issue but the preferred's can be redeemed.

 

Series R:

 

Optional Redemption by Fannie Mae:

On or after November 21, 2012 at $25 per share plus accrued dividends from the most recent payment date

 

Series S is more complicated, not sure how this would be handled:

 

Optional Redemption by Fannie Mae:

On December 31, 2010, and on each fifth anniversary thereafter, at $25 per share plus accrued dividends from the most recent payment date, whether or not the dividend was declared

 

it would be a tender rather than a call. it could settle lawsuits. likely done @ a reasonable price well above current levels and decently below par.  but that is about 10 steps ahead from now, so not too relevant at the moment.  we're still in a firm downtrend for the last 3 months.

[undervalued]

Thanks for the feedback everyone. Emily - have to say I think you're absolutely crazy being 100% common. I think you're missing the big picture and unbelievable risk IMO.

 

Mentioned in an earlier post that she's trying to pay for tuition.  Can't see how this ends poorly  ::)

 

Either college is all paid for or no college.

[SnarkyPuppy]

Thanks for the feedback everyone. Emily - have to say I think you're absolutely crazy being 100% common. I think you're missing the big picture and unbelievable risk IMO.

 

Mentioned in an earlier post that she's trying to pay for tuition.  Can't see how this ends poorly  ::)

 

Either college is all paid for or no college.

 

Poor Berkowitz has 35% of his fund in this and now he has to worry about someone going to school

[undervalued]

Thanks for the feedback everyone. Emily - have to say I think you're absolutely crazy being 100% common. I think you're missing the big picture and unbelievable risk IMO.

 

Mentioned in an earlier post that she's trying to pay for tuition.  Can't see how this ends poorly  ::)

 

Either college is all paid for or no college.

 

Poor Berkowitz has 35% of his fund in this and now he has to worry about someone going to school

 

I think recent interview he said he will lose 12-15% if things doesn't work out.

[SnarkyPuppy]

Thanks for the feedback everyone. Emily - have to say I think you're absolutely crazy being 100% common. I think you're missing the big picture and unbelievable risk IMO.

 

Mentioned in an earlier post that she's trying to pay for tuition.  Can't see how this ends poorly  ::)

 

Either college is all paid for or no college.

 

Poor Berkowitz has 35% of his fund in this and now he has to worry about someone going to school

 

I think recent interview he said he will lose 12-15% if things doesn't work out.

 

Depends on timing.  He had 35% of his fund in it as of the last report and as high as 40% in it when prices were at their highs pre-perry decision.

[Flynnstone5]

"X" is common gets wiped out or heavily diluted. Doesn't make sense to pay divs on jr., decrease earnings and bring down market cap, but it does make sense to call and be able to cover a solid 10% of the capital raise through new issuance of jr. They could avoid not calling and say not paying divs either fro extended period, but that doesn't solve any issues with litigation.

 

Don't agree?

 

who does x? who is they?

 

 

Treasury/FHFA/Mnuchin/Trump/Congress - I think the "what" is done is key, not the "who". What are your thoughts? You're one of the reasons I originally joined this board so I absolutely respect your opinion.

[beaufort]

My guess is that Berkowitz is a happy man (Sears aside).

 

He has said in his interviews that he views things simply.  He likes to 'count the cash'.  Pretty soon, there will be more cash to count on the GSEs balance sheet.  It's that simple as a first step.  Cash that covers the junior pref liquidation preference (assuming senior prefs are agreed by Treasury to have been made whole) and any accounting earnings volatility.  Cash that also contributes to the long term viability of the GSEs, which is good for the common.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[waynepolsonAtoZ]

I think this makes a decent (encouraging) point.

 

"“Even if Secretary Mnuchin doesn’t appear warm to the idea but does have a statement ready, then it could indicate Treasury is open to considering new directions to jump start GSE reform,” stated Jim Vogel, Interest Rate Strategies Group executive president and manager.

 

“It seems too early to dismiss Watt’s idea this spring, so a firm ‘no’ presents a different story,” Vogel continued."

 

http://www.housingwire.com/articles/40147-treasury-secretary-mnuchin-to-address-senate-banking-committee-on-gse-reform

[Desert_Rat]

If by 'jump start' Vogel means nothing will change except our status as conservatees and a few myopic rules (to make principles look better), than I totally agree.

[Eye4Valu]

If by 'jump start' Vogel means nothing will change except our status as conservatees and a few myopic rules (to make principles look better), than I totally agree.

 

 

The opposite of Progress is Congress.

[rros]

Anybody expects any issues with Corker, tomorrow?

[Spekulatius]

Thanks for the feedback everyone. Emily - have to say I think you're absolutely crazy being 100% common. I think you're missing the big picture and unbelievable risk IMO.

 

Mentioned in an earlier post that she's trying to pay for tuition.  Can't see how this ends poorly  ::)

.

 

Either college is all paid for or no college.

 

 

Assume I have $7.50 in one preferred share. I sell and buy 3 common shares instead.  In few weeks, the pfds jumps to $14.00 and common jumps to only $7.50. I sell my common shares for $22.50. Is $22.50 better or $14.00? Even today if I had any preferred left, I would convert to commons at these prices. I thought you all were smarter than me.

 

ok., assume common only goes up to 4.00 and pfds to $9.00. I still have $12.00 rather than $9.00. Let’s poke holes in my analysis and if I made a stupid decision. I want the money now to pay for education and not wait 10 years. why are you not ready to convert to commons ?

 

The folks here are probabły smarter than you.  You made a scenario with made up numbers where common made up better than preferred, but that does not tell us anything. Preferred are senior in the capital structure to common, so there is a possibility that preferred get made up whole and common could get nothing.

 

FWIW, I have not met many people in my life that won money gambling just when they needed it.

[DocSnowball]

No worries Emily I'll raise my hand to be the most stupid. Just trying to disconfirm every day, and after Perry ruling which stated it is legal for our companies pay all their profits to Treasury but they don't even count as repayment, I wonder everyday why I'm still in this.

 

Why doesn't Mnuchin just expose what the previous admin is trying to hide? No better time!

[Midas79]

https://www.treasury.gov/press-center/press-releases/Pages/sm0089.aspx

 

Mnuchin's prepared statement. Effectively nothing about the GSEs: they're mentioned but nothing new.

[Flynnstone5]

No good news so far. He made clear that he wants the payments to continue per agreement.

[Luke 532]

No good news so far. He made clear that he wants the payments to continue per agreement.

 

He also said he has a strong preference to working with Congress on this issue. 

 

Did anybody catch the quote for the 75 day thing?  Corker said something about 75 days...