biaggio Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 http://www.google.ca/search?client=safari&rls=en&q=The+Charms+of+Cash&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&redir_esc=&ei=xloeTbW8ONaJnAe8uNSfDg "The charms of cash" Wishing all great returns in the future, but most of all good health + happiness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldfinger Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 That's what you were saying Smazz, but there were a number of people who thought we were headed back to the lows of 2009. Cheers! I do not know about your time horizon but it really is not finished yet. The system is fully loaded with risks. Crowds' denial is not providing me with any sense of comfort. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
claphands22 Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 Yeah, I've noticed increased bullish behavior. Couple of my relatives have gotten back in the stock market and are boasting about how their picks are making more money. Gurufocus has a neat, daily updated article on "Where Are We with Market Valuations" and it finally dipped in the modestly overvalued territory about a week ago. http://www.gurufocus.com/stock-market-valuations.php I mean, take it all with a grain a salt. My relatives are not indicative of the entire population and you can't base your investment philosophy off a GuruFocus article but it's all starting to smell optimistic again. I also like packer's ideas - especially MGAM. They have a nice presentation on their website http://ir.multimediagames.com/events.cfm and the Baupost group http://www.dataroma.com/m/stock.php?sym=mgam is also a shareholder. Personally don't own a position since it's recent rally has turned me off and I haven't done my required reading the co yet. But yeah, there definitely seems to be some cheap stuff still laying around. Happy New Year! 新年快樂! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest broxburnboy Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Looks like government debt yields have bottomed out and are beginning to rise. Obvious consumer price inflation is about to spike upwards .. most commodities have hit all time USD highs in the last 6 months and the mother of all inflation drivers - the price of oil has broken out to the upside. Governments need more tax revenues which they will happily tack on to the pump price of gasoline. QE2 has successfully driven the appearance of a stock market rally (not a rally in inflation adjusted terms). QE3 is needed to monetize municipal and state debt and to buy sovereign debt to "contain" rising interest rates... it is widely anticipated. Ergo... we will have a stock market rally driven by inflation fears, another helicopter drop of freshly printed money, rising interest rates and search for real yield... that is what is intended. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merkhet Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 I think there are certainly significant risks on the horizon, but I wonder a little bit as to whether I'm fighting the last war. For instance, I hear a lot of people saying that they're not finding as much value as they'd like to in the markets, but the question is whether they're subconsciously comparing the current market to the 2009 lows. In other words, if they're finding companies that are potentially selling at a 50% discount, do they automatically think, "well, that's great, but it's not selling at a 75% discount like in 2009." Feet to the fire, I'd obviously err on the side of caution, but I do wonder whether the recency of the last crash is causing some bias. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldfinger Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 I think there are certainly significant risks on the horizon, but I wonder a little bit as to whether I'm fighting the last war. I am not sure the war is over yet. It may have only started and more battles are to follow. I find it absolutely weird that so many are already partying when there is so much debt in both public and private sectors as compared to any rational measure of solvency in most advanced countries and when the most important emerging nations seem to be catching our diseases pretty quickly. There are not that many historical periods like that. Moreover we may be in the process of discovering that our assets may not be sufficient to cover that debt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Myth465 Posted January 6, 2011 Author Share Posted January 6, 2011 Excellent Interview / Debate Robert Shiller And Jeremy Siegel Debate On Economy In 2011 http://www.gurufocus.com/news.php?id=118925 Shiller is on point for the medium and long term. I actually agree with Siegel in the short term, its hard to bet against an election year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merkhet Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I think you got a quick glimpse of the current bullishness today from comparing the a priori NFP numbers with the eventual NFP number. People were thinking 140K-160K with possible upside, and we got 100K. (Putting aside the fact that even 140K would really only cover new entrants and makes no progress towards plugging the old hole.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valuebo Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Not sure how accurate it is but these surveys make me wonder : http://www.aaii.com/sentimentsurvey This is probably more accurate : http://www.market-harmonics.com/free-charts/sentiment/investors_intelligence.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scorpioncapital Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 "Moreover we may be in the process of discovering that our assets may not be sufficient to cover that debt." I find this claim very hard to believe. US total net worth as of Q3 2010 is about $55 trillion. US total debt is just shy of $14 trillion. Some have argued about social security and medicare costs, but you have to remember these are future promises that may or may not end up in their current form, nor is the net worth figure static, it is growing. In all, I don't see how the massive wealth of the US is even close to our total debts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest broxburnboy Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 "Moreover we may be in the process of discovering that our assets may not be sufficient to cover that debt." I find this claim very hard to believe. US total net worth as of Q3 2010 is about $55 trillion. US total debt is just shy of $14 trillion. Some have argued about social security and medicare costs, but you have to remember these are future promises that may or may not end up in their current form, nor is the net worth figure static, it is growing. In all, I don't see how the massive wealth of the US is even close to our total debts. Whatever you feel the total wealth of the US is composed off... one thing is undisputable... income from it is declining.... and present and future liabilites attached to it are increasing... capital is being sold off through a permanent trade imbalance and monetary dillution to close the gap. Risk of default is increasing as the enterprise moves private losses onto public balance sheets. The massive wealth is decreasing.. and there is no end in sight. The reported net worth is "growing" by using unsound accounting practices like carrying the accumulated cost of the wealth destroying wars as an off balance sheet asset at cost, when in fact it is ongoing self stoking liability, ditto most of the "pork-barrel" spending. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oec2000 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 "Moreover we may be in the process of discovering that our assets may not be sufficient to cover that debt." I find this claim very hard to believe. US total net worth as of Q3 2010 is about $55 trillion. US total debt is just shy of $14 trillion. Some have argued about social security and medicare costs, but you have to remember these are future promises that may or may not end up in their current form, nor is the net worth figure static, it is growing. In all, I don't see how the massive wealth of the US is even close to our total debts. Is the $55t net worth that of the entire nation - public and private? If so, shouldn't that be compared with total debt held by both the pubic and private sector. Your $14t figure appears to be that of the Federal govt only. On the other hand, it is not clear to me whether we should just look at debt held by foreigners only since debt held by domestic investors would simply offset a large chunk of the debt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scorpioncapital Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Here you can read the report at this link: http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/z1/Current/z1r-5.pdf and http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/z1/Current/z1.pdf $55 trillion is household net worth, that is the wealth of individuals (and non-profits). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shalab Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Looks like 70% of the global wealth in US & Europe still. http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/09/14/americas-dominance-of-global-wealth-is-slipping/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Myth465 Posted January 14, 2011 Author Share Posted January 14, 2011 Another interesting read. http://www.zerohedge.com/article/sp-melt-price-momentum-once-never-event It seems like the prudent thing to do is hold some cash. If I was in charge I would want a pull back now and a rally into year four for reelection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merkhet Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 A contrary view: http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/01/is-equity-sentiment-really-overbullish/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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