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Petrobank - Please take a look, I think it is an unusual opportunity


Swizzled
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I posted about Petrobakken a couple of days ago.  The parent company which Myth referred to is the better investment.

 

Buy a share of Petrobank today and you essentially pay for the market value of their shares in Petrobakken and Petrominerales (both of which I believe are considerably undervalued).  So that alone is a pretty good investment.

 

You get for free their Heavy Oil Business Unit which has over 700 million barrels of oil.  And you also get the rights to THAI which I'm sure most of you have heard of.

 

My note below recaps the Q3 conference call.  I was honestly not expecting THAI to be worth much to make this a very good investment.  I was shocked to hear how much progress they have made with the technology as it appears they are already producing at commercial levels and have two international oil companies ready to sign up to use it before year end.

 

Please be critical and let me know what you think.  Given the safety net of the two very solid and valuable subsidiaries (as well as another 700 million BOE of heavy oil) to protect you on the downside I think this is an incredibly attractive chance to get a free ride on a technology that could be worth billions.

 

http://www.gurufocus.com/news.php?id=114412

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I think we should post any new ideas on Investment Idea section only. 

 

Not a criticism but if I understood it right then in case of spin off,  the receipt of the new Petrominerales shares are expected to be treated as "qualified dividends" for US investors. So for a taxable account you give back decent chunk to uncle sam.

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I really like this idea. I will keep an close eye on the parent and praying it will spin off all other tangible assets and become a technology company. It will be worth billions easily if the technology is proven.

 

It is amazing we can always come up with new ways to deal with existing problems, even though it is very heavy!

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" I will keep an close eye on the parent and praying it will spin off all other tangible assets and become a technology company. It will be worth billions easily if the technology is proven."

 

Their intention is definitely to spin out PBN within the next couple of years.  I was surprised (and encouraged) that they are spinning out PMG this year.

 

You should give the Q3 conference call a listen, they think the technology is pretty much there already.  And their reserve engineers seemingly do as well.  I put a few notes together

 

http://valueinvestorcanada.blogspot.com/2010/11/petrobank-q3-that-free-option-thai-is.html

 

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Oh I htink I found it...

http://www.petrobank.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/04/21951_Petrobank-Notice-Info-Circ-Print-V2.pdf

 

Looks like the CEO owns $200+ million.  Several of the execs and directors own hundreds of thousands of shares as well so it looks like they are reasonably well aligned.  Haven't dug too deep into the compensation plan to know if it's egregious or shareholder friendly though...

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"Looks like the CEO owns $200+ million.  Several of the execs and directors own hundreds of thousands of shares as well so it looks like they are reasonably well aligned.  Haven't dug too deep into the compensation plan to know if it's egregious or shareholder friendly though..."

 

I think you found what you need.  I started digging into PBG this summer, so I don't have a long period of time tracking them.  But I've listened to every presentation possible and read everything I can find and I am very impressed with CEO Wright.

 

I have no concern about his interests being aligned with shareholders.  They capitalized this company with $30mil early in the decade and it now has a $4bil mkt cap and huge growth ahead of it with PBN, PMG and the HBU/THAI units.  They are in it for the long haul and have done an incredible job so far obviously.

 

http://valueinvestorcanada.blogspot.com/

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  • 2 years later...

Maaannn I've been looking at this for the last 2 days and I can't help but feel it's too good to be true (then again I said the same thing before I bought RIM, Indigo, WFC and the BAC class A warrants)..... I'm considering investing in PBN but I have some questions:

 

- why has the stock price fallen so low ? 0.04x book value ?? I can't wrap my mind around that LOL

 

- was there a recent reorganization and if so why did it occur and are there any surprises we should be looking out for (in regards to shares, dilution, hell anything) ?

 

- How did the CEO get $200 million dollars worth of shares in PBG ?

 

- Can you point me in the direction to any thread on PBG ?

 

 

Keep in mind I'm just being a skeptic - I don't know about PBN nor have I read the annual report yet. But if you can peak my interest I'll take an intricate look at it & eventually add it...

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Maaannn I've been looking at this for the last 2 days and I can't help but feel it's too good to be true (then again I said the same thing before I bought RIM, Indigo, WFC and the BAC class A warrants)..... I'm considering investing in PBN but I have some questions:

 

- why has the stock price fallen so low ? 0.04x book value ?? I can't wrap my mind around that LOL

 

- was there a recent reorganization and if so why did it occur and are there any surprises we should be looking out for (in regards to shares, dilution, hell anything) ?

 

- How did the CEO get $200 million dollars worth of shares in PBG ?

 

- Can you point me in the direction to any thread on PBG ?

 

 

Keep in mind I'm just being a skeptic - I don't know about PBN nor have I read the annual report yet. But if you can peak my interest I'll take an intricate look at it & eventually add it...

 

Have been following this story since swizzled first brought it to our attention, and made some money from it just after spinoff of Petrominerales.  I haven't dug enough to know but I suspect that the properties (Asset number) held by PBG as oil producers may be conditional on THAI being used - no THAI, no oil.  So if they have a bunch of property in Alberta that will produce oil using THAI and Alberta is making it impossible for them to use THAI then those properties are worth NIL.  That might explain the crazy price/book.  Sheer speculation on my part.

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The cash will be spent trying to monitize thai which they have been unable to do for three years. I still own some pbn but I will sell it on any sort of a pop. I remember calculating about $2-3 in heavy oil assets and $1 on cash. Value this one on the liquidation value of the oil assets, about $1...

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Maaannn I've been looking at this for the last 2 days and I can't help but feel it's too good to be true (then again I said the same thing before I bought RIM, Indigo, WFC and the BAC class A warrants)..... I'm considering investing in PBN but I have some questions:

 

- why has the stock price fallen so low ? 0.04x book value ?? I can't wrap my mind around that LOL

 

- was there a recent reorganization and if so why did it occur and are there any surprises we should be looking out for (in regards to shares, dilution, hell anything) ?

 

- How did the CEO get $200 million dollars worth of shares in PBG ?

 

- Can you point me in the direction to any thread on PBG ?

 

 

Keep in mind I'm just being a skeptic - I don't know about PBN nor have I read the annual report yet. But if you can peak my interest I'll take an intricate look at it & eventually add it...

 

Have been following this story since swizzled first brought it to our attention, and made some money from it just after spinoff of Petrominerales.  I haven't dug enough to know but I suspect that the properties (Asset number) held by PBG as oil producers may be conditional on THAI being used - no THAI, no oil.  So if they have a bunch of property in Alberta that will produce oil using THAI and Alberta is making it impossible for them to use THAI then those properties are worth NIL.  That might explain the crazy price/book.  Sheer speculation on my part.

 

 

That's interesting.  What's the reason for thinking that their rights to produce oil on those lands are conditional on using THAI?  Why haven't the rights to produce on the Dawson Creek lands lapsed since they suspended the  THAI  project there a few years ago?  They now sai that they are going back to Alberta and drill some wells to "condition" the field for THAI.  Is that a possible loophole for conventional production there?

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