Jump to content

Sorry for you...


Cardboard
 Share

Recommended Posts

Use any logic in this market and you end up being a loser.

 

Hold EBIX, KSP, JNJ, MSFT, FBK and other stocks that have been discussed many times on this board for their attractive valuation and you are underperforming.

 

Hold overvalued garbage and hype and you end up a winner. See NFLX on a "rumour" that they may have a deal with AAPL. See AMZN on a potential foray into TV.

 

Also, have you noticed the flash crash today in the SPY? At 11:27 am the SPY, which is extremely liquid by the way, went down to $105.39 from $108.24 then back up to $108.24. What happened? Is that normal?

 

I am optimistic that value will triumph in the long term. However, it does not appear that value moved stocks much since early 2008. Unless you were lucky to be bought out via a take-over, it seems very difficult for value to be recognized by the market anymore. It seems to be a wild gyration based on emotions, macro and other factors. Normally this wears off quickly, but it has been going on for over 2 years now. Very frustrating out there.

 

Cardboard 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I had a 3% day today.

 

Everyone has their differrent definition of Arb - I have mine.

 

Bought Yesterday at lowball, put in a high sell for this morning.

 

Id only do it with something i am ok owning for the long haul if i get caught in an unforseen Psunami.  

 

Its not something I am known for but You have to find a way for the volatility to work for you.

 

So as per that earlier poll, I was more heavily weighted invested for about 6-8 trading hrs ;D

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Use any logic in this market and you end up being a loser.

 

Hold EBIX, KSP, JNJ, MSFT, FBK and other stocks that have been discussed many times on this board for their attractive valuation and you are underperforming.

 

Cardboard  

 

Maybe there's a miscalculation in valuation. JNJ isn't the cheapest stock around.

And with MSFT, maybe you're not pricing in MSFT's problems with long term growth. It's a bit like DELL really.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Use any logic in this market and you end up being a loser.

 

Hold EBIX, KSP, JNJ, MSFT, FBK and other stocks that have been discussed many times on this board for their attractive valuation and you are underperforming.

 

Cardboard  

 

Maybe there's a miscalculation in valuation. JNJ isn't the cheapest stock around.

And with MSFT, maybe you're not pricing in MSFT's problems with long term growth. It's a bit like DELL really.

 

I am as frustrated as anyone but I can say my bets were off with KSP, and FBK. Both have slight Management issues, and with both I should have demanded a higher margin of safety. With FBK Cardboard you were actually the voice of reason and even if it works out, I think we can all agree we were looking to capitalize on the temporary highs in pulp. Management mistimed things and robbed us of a chance to sale high.

 

The banks forced KSP to raise equity, but they did it in the worst possible way. Now they are at the mercy of a hedge fund who can wait them out and potentially force them to issue shares at $3. They should have just issued shares at $6 when it rallied given the situation.

 

Today was a great day, but it does appear that we are losing more then winning. I like MSFT, but they are one or two Yahoos away from being overvalued.

 

Also those guys who are winners if they hold they will be burned too at some point. Its all about timing. Its been a bad few months, which hopefully means good news is around the corner.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Hi guys,

 

I am lucky enough to have a good friend who is wildly passionate about Technical Analysis and I have learned from him and he from me. 

 

Over the last few years we have morphed our styles together so that we market time instruments whose valuations we feel are compelling. If there is something that we want to own we use the charts to time our entry and exit points and given the volatility we have been outperforming handily.

 

Using the TA in helping us make decisions is enormously helpful.  For example, look at a weekly chart of TLT the 20+ Year T Bond index. You'll notice that yields haven't been this low since Dec 08.  This is a reflection of QE to be sure but it is also a measure of fear. In one picutre I can see that bonds look too high, the equity markets are in all likelihood too low. As a measure of fear it looks to be a good time to put on risk.

 

At any rate, finding what you like, buying when the chart says so, selling when the chart says so has worked well in the last 18 months for me. If I end up in a losing position and nothing has changed with the fundamentals of the company then I don't have to worry about it, I hang on, or add as the situation dictates.

 

If I make a mistake and sell something too soon, I look for the next opportunity and keep on trucking. :)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

 

Isn't the 'real' logic here that its either 'buy & hold forever', or stay in cash ?

Nothing wrong with a flyer here & there but you've got to recognize that its a gamble - not an investment.

 

SD

 

Like anything else in life, its a gamble if you dont know what you are doing or are a novice.  Luckily Ive been at this going through the 80s 90s new millenium though to now.

As was mentioned above there is more at work than just the fundamentals - It would be easier if that was not the case but as Bill Gates said "Lifes not fair, get over it"

 

Some things are just not for the weak of heart and mind.

 

To Carboards point ive seen some posters buy companies on here in the name of value where as i see them as a bigger gamble than what Ive ever bought as solely a trade.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

 

 

Isn't the 'real' logic here that its either 'buy & hold forever', or stay in cash ?

Nothing wrong with a flyer here & there but you've got to recognize that its a gamble - not an investment.

 

SD

 

Like anything else in life, its a gamble if you dont know what you are doing or are a novice.  Luckily Ive been at this going through the 80s 90s new millenium though to now.

As was mentioned above there is more at work than just the fundamentals - It would be easier if that was not the case but as Bill Gates said "Lifes not fair, get over it"

Ive found ive made the most gains when ive used all info avail to me and decipher what is most important. I always use the fundamentals however not using the macro info is a waste IMO

 

Some things are just not for the weak of heart and mind.

 

To Carboards point ive seen some posters buy companies on here in the name of value where as i see them as a bigger gamble than what Ive ever bought as solely a trade.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest HarryLong

Use any logic in this market and you end up being a loser.

 

Hold EBIX, KSP, JNJ, MSFT, FBK and other stocks that have been discussed many times on this board for their attractive valuation and you are underperforming.

 

Hold overvalued garbage and hype and you end up a winner. See NFLX on a "rumour" that they may have a deal with AAPL. See AMZN on a potential foray into TV.

 

Also, have you noticed the flash crash today in the SPY? At 11:27 am the SPY, which is extremely liquid by the way, went down to $105.39 from $108.24 then back up to $108.24. What happened? Is that normal?

 

I am optimistic that value will triumph in the long term. However, it does not appear that value moved stocks much since early 2008. Unless you were lucky to be bought out via a take-over, it seems very difficult for value to be recognized by the market anymore. It seems to be a wild gyration based on emotions, macro and other factors. Normally this wears off quickly, but it has been going on for over 2 years now. Very frustrating out there.

 

Cardboard 

 

Ebix has outperformed. Have you actually checked?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'm still finding a lot of values if the economy is nearing a trough and will schlump around for a bit. But I'm not finding values that can withstand major inflection point scenarios like what Klarman and Watsa are hedging against.

 

I have a few liquid stocks like KMX, AN, TU and SPLS that seem to hold up compared to the overall market so I've shed some of my weaklings like CBS, NARA, EIG, and JACK and migrated the funds to companies who should take market share over time. I might actually get out of TU as it's had a good run lately and I'm less comfortable with its 10 year prospects than my other companies.

 

Hopefully, I am in spots that will continue to take market share in a favorable economy, but that will allow me to sell 50 cent dollars if everything else falls to 25 cent dollars.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

"Ebix has outperformed. Have you actually checked?"

 

Yes I did and as I said it is a massive underperformer relative to CRM, NFLX, AMZN. It is unable to trade above 15 times earnings while the others trade as high as 200 times earnings.

 

Unless you have more invested in CRM than EBIX at the moment, your capital has been poorly employed. You are no different than us Harry. Value is killing your performance. Join the new Nifty-Fifty. The Internet stocks that can do no wrong.

 

Cardboard

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest HarryLong

"Ebix has outperformed. Have you actually checked?"

 

Yes I did and as I said it is a massive underperformer relative to CRM, NFLX, AMZN. It is unable to trade above 15 times earnings while the others trade as high as 200 times earnings.

 

Unless you have more invested in CRM than EBIX at the moment, your capital has been poorly employed. You are no different than us Harry. Value is killing your performance. Join the new Nifty-Fifty. The Internet stocks that can do no wrong.

 

Cardboard

 

PVD just hit a new 52 week high today. Great dividend, lower valuation than EBIX, growing nicely. It's really important to check your facts. Stop being bitter and get to work. Try not to get in the habit of ignoring half of what people say to fit your own preconceived notions. And yes, unless if you have a big PVD position, I am different from you :) Lol. I've been discussing PVD a lot, you've just been ignoring it.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest HarryLong

"Ebix has outperformed. Have you actually checked?"

 

Yes I did and as I said it is a massive underperformer relative to CRM, NFLX, AMZN. It is unable to trade above 15 times earnings while the others trade as high as 200 times earnings.

 

Unless you have more invested in CRM than EBIX at the moment, your capital has been poorly employed. You are no different than us Harry. Value is killing your performance. Join the new Nifty-Fifty. The Internet stocks that can do no wrong.

 

Cardboard

 

"Hold EBIX, KSP, JNJ, MSFT, FBK and other stocks that have been discussed many times on this board for their attractive valuation and you are underperforming."

 

I assume you mean relative to the S&P. You never said relative to CRM, NFLX, AMZN. You just made that up. Ebix has outperformed relative to to the S&P.

 

It seems you love to whine. If you spent half as much time doing research, I think your performance would improve.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest HarryLong

We need to be honest about what we're really talking about on this thread. The bull case for a "blue chip" that has stopped growing rapidly is that it's a bump in the road, true intrinsic value will be recognized, strong growth will resume, or cash flow will remain stable, new upstart competitors won't destroy their business, etc.

 

The bear case is that new competitors will take the market, the popular blue chip will become mortally wounded, and the P/E and price will decline further, or at least languish, and the intrinsic value will fall.

 

There seems to be almost no thought given at all on this board to the notion that certain large, well known companies might NEVER regain their former glory, valuation, earnings growth, market position, etc. (anyone buy GE in 2008?) Just a lot of whining about how other people "don't get it" and don't oblige you in making your stocks go up.

 

Cardboard, if you really do believe in your positions, and I'm not saying you don't, you would be so pleased to have the opportunity to increase your stake in the businesses you you like. Maybe you are pleased, but you don't seem like it.

 

Never underestimate your competition. Try to poke holes in your own theses. Blockbuster looked cheap for a while. It's business was destroyed, and unless the Internet and all other forms of telecommunications (and package delivery) go away, it's never coming back. NFLX and Red Box, to my way of thinking, are the new market. Anyone buying blockbuster on the way down in size, with a large % of their portfolio, has gone the way of the Dodo bird.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

×
×
  • Create New...