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Bill Miller says Large Cap Stocks Represent a Once in a Lifetime Opportunity


falconof880
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I don't agree with everything Miller said, and I don't think it's once in a lifetime (that may have been February/March 2009 for my lifetime), but quality, large-cap stocks are very cheap relative to alternatives.  Cheers!

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Miller and Grantham and Greenwald and Vita Maida - current US large caps are priced attractively.

 

They are interesting companies; if we have deflation they should be able keep their prices constant - if we have inflation they should be able to raise prices, and probably benefit from inflation.

 

 

 

 

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Bill Miller claims that the top 5% of the U.S. population make over $210k a year.  Shyeah!  According to the US census, less than 2.5% of U.S. households earn that much. 

 

Miller drew his numbers from the Motoko Rich article, which cited a Moody's study of Fed data. I can't find the actual study, or even the data referenced, but they may estimate income differently.

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It's definitely not a once in a lifetime opportunity for large cap stocks as a whole.  That was back during the market bottoms -- a time, I might add, when Bill Miller was telling folks to buy Bear Stearns on the way down.  Whoops!

 

But certain large cap companies are inexplicably trading at very attractive levels.

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It's definitely not a once in a lifetime opportunity for large cap stocks as a whole.  That was back during the market bottoms -- a time, I might add, when Bill Miller was telling folks to buy Bear Stearns on the way down.  Whoops!

 

I think you may be confusing '08 and '09... BS was long gone by the market bottom unless I'm forgetting something.

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It's definitely not a once in a lifetime opportunity for large cap stocks as a whole.  That was back during the market bottoms -- a time, I might add, when Bill Miller was telling folks to buy Bear Stearns on the way down.  Whoops!

 

I think you may be confusing '08 and '09... BS was long gone by the market bottom unless I'm forgetting something.

 

No, not confusing the timing -- just meant that when the shit hit the fan during the financial crisis (Bear Sterns forced sale to JPM, Lehman going under, Citi and AIG getting bailed out), Bill Miller had been on record as recommending that people buy Bear Stearns as there was a "run on the bank."  I think he also held quite a bit of Fannie and Freddie stock. 

 

So I don't really listen to anything Bill Miller has to say anymore and am a little confused as to why he still gets so much press.  Perhaps I'm being overly harsh though.

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Obviously BS is back and may go away again one of these days...

 

They are definitely cheap relative to other opportunities but may not look that cheap in the "new normal" era.

I do not have 100B to invest like Grantham so that I can afford to be less in a rush and more demanding. I really like Klarman's position at this point: buying insurance while he is watching. Grantham named Klarman the smartest guy out there.

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Obviously BS is back and may go away again one of these days...

 

They are definitely cheap relative to other opportunities but may not look that cheap in the "new normal" era.

I do not have 100B to invest like Grantham so that I can afford to be less in a rush and more demanding. I really like Klarman's position at this point: buying insurance while he is watching. Grantham named Klarman the smartest guy out there.

 

I'm a huge fan of both Klarman and Grantham.  I wonder what Klarman's stance is on the type of "high quality" companies that Grantham refers to.

 

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Obviously BS is back and may go away again one of these days...

 

They are definitely cheap relative to other opportunities but may not look that cheap in the "new normal" era.

I do not have 100B to invest like Grantham so that I can afford to be less in a rush and more demanding. I really like Klarman's position at this point: buying insurance while he is watching. Grantham named Klarman the smartest guy out there.

 

I'm a huge fan of both Klarman and Grantham.  I wonder what Klarman's stance is on the type of "high quality" companies that Grantham refers to.

 

 

You don't really see Baupost investing in quality large cap US stocks, really ever. At least not thematically. They seem to stick to their knitting with more special situation type plays (FACT is a recent example)

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