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Posted

Eric,

 

Thank you for emphasizing to me that the market is an auction. But what I was referring to was, when most goods were sold at public auction. Certain companies would hire people to circulate in the crowd and if they were good at reading people could wring quite a few more bids out of people. Some would even use their ring men to yell out bids that weren't there. They got more business from selling higher than the next auctioneer and more commission from higher prices. Until people realized that they were in fact bidding against the seller as the auctioneer is agent for the seller. While it can be a hard thing to catch, once they were suspected, business dried up as people lost faith in the fairness of that auction house.  I'm sure even Ebay frowns against that practice today.

 

Dan

 

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Posted

merc ups another 10 pt.

 

Alert me you are ruining my week. Was looking hard at some calls for them. Wanted longer than 9 months. This was 3 weeks ago. 20 points would have been nice.

 

We should be right behind them. A smart man would be buying FBK if he thought the gains were sustainable.

Posted

Regarding MERC:

 

They are NYSE listed, and may be some significant short covering going on ...

 

  - they had 10% of shares shorted

              http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=MERC+Key+Statistics

  - there was activity reported from buyins.net

              http://www.tmcnet.com/usubmit/2011/02/08/5295848.htm

 

Regarding NBSK:

 

A WSJ article today that was rather bullish (Global Pulp: Softwood Price Outlook Firming ... by Lester Aldrich)

 

http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20110208-712982.html

 

 

Posted

TD Waterhouse just upgraded MERC to a buy with a target of US $14.00 (up from US $9.50). They are also increasing their NBSK pulp price forecast to US $950 for 2011 (+6%)

Posted

TD Waterhouse just upgraded MERC to a buy with a target of US $14.00 (up from US $9.50). They are also increasing their NBSK pulp price forecast to US $950 for 2011 (+6%)

 

The overhang (250,000 on the ask) either pulled the order or was filled earlier. Regardless, its gone from the que now.

;D

Posted

"Regarding NBSK:

A WSJ article today that was rather bullish (Global Pulp: Softwood Price Outlook Firming ... by Lester Aldrich)

http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20110208-712982.html"

 

The link doesn't work but I was able to get the "cached" webview.

 

By Lester Aldrich

  Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

KANSAS CITY (Dow Jones)--The world outlook for softwood pulp prices is firming as traders come to grips with an improving global economy and rising paper demand coupled with a lack of fresh production prospects.

 

Andrew Shapiro, president of Lawndale Capital Management, said the Chicago Mercantile Exchange futures market shows a significant flattening of closing futures prices from a month ago and even from a week ago. The industry is expecting more price strength through the year, he said.

 

Many traders expected to see prices strengthen this year, but the improvement is greater than they predicted, Shapiro said.

 

If the trend continues, the market could see the price curve in futures move to show expected price gains for softwood pulp through the year, Shapiro said.

 

North American pulp producers are working $20-per-metric-ton list price increases for Northern Bleached Softwood Pulp going to China, and Mark Wilde, market analyst at Deutsche Bank, said in an e-mailed comment that spot prices for NBSK in China are up $30 a ton from a month ago.

 

Further gains over the short term, however, will depend largely on the level of demand in China after the Chinese New Year and world inventories reported by the Pulp and Paper Products Council in late February, Wilde said. The current softwood demand picture in China looks like it is moving upward, though, with reports of rising list prices by Chinese producers and some substitution to NBSK from dissolving pulp by Chinese buyers.

 

The latest figures from China Customs show that total imports in December were up 1.3% from November, as gains in softwood imports overcame declines in hardwood pulp imports. China Customs also said December softwood pulp imports were 52.3% higher than a year earlier as hardwood pulp imports declined 21.0% for an overall increase of 11.4%.

 

However, 2010 pulp imports by China were down 18.8%, led by a 25.6% dip in hardwood pulp, which eclipsed a 16.2% decline in softwood imports, China Customs said.

 

Meanwhile, global trade in wood chips was up 25% in 2010 because of increased production of pulp and paper products worldwide, Hakan Ekstrom, market analyst at Wood Resources International LLC, said in a weekly commentary. China showed the greatest growth in wood-chip imports with a more-than-fivefold increase in the last two years. Australia continued to be the major exporter and shipped 11% more in 2010 than in the previous year.

 

Wood chips are the basic ingredient in pulp, which is made into paper. Softwood chips are the premier product since their longer fibers produce a stronger product.

 

Shapiro said the softwood pulp is of greater importance as world paper demand grows since the paper from all-hardwood pulp is softer and weaker, requiring a mix of hard and soft wood pulps just to prevent it from tearing in the paper-making machines as well as for making a higher-quality paper.

 

Softwood pulp is of even greater importance now since there is no new production that can be brought on line to augment current production, Shapiro said.

 

Finland's index provider FOEX this week reported its U.S. list price index for Northern Bleached Softwood Kraft pulp was $959.51 a metric ton, unchanged from a week earlier and $7.60 below Jan. 1.

 

FOEX also reported its index for European NBSK list pulp prices was down $0.31 from a week earlier at $949.08 a ton, which is $0.13 below the level of Jan. 1.

 

In addition, FOEX reported its European list price index for Bleached Hardwood Kraft Pulp was down $0.38 at $848.35 a ton, or $0.81 above the level of Jan. 1

 

Pulpandpaper.net reported northern bleached softwood kraft pulp at $940 to $960 a ton as of Feb. 1, unchanged from a month earlier. Bleached eucalyptus pulp was listed at $830 to $850 a ton, also flat with a month earlier.

 

In Europe, Pulpandpaper.net reported NBSK pulp at $940 to $950 a ton on Jan. 1, unchanged from a month earlier. Eucalyptus pulp was listed at $658 a ton, up $16 from December.

 

-By Lester Aldrich, Dow Jones Newswires; 913-322-5179; [email protected]

 

Posted

Myth - this is for you:  ;D

 

merc up another 5pts, FBK backs to pathetic trading mode.

The fun part about value investing. You see value, you buy and wait until the value being seen by others.

 

 

Posted

Myth - this is for you:  ;D

 

merc up another 5pts, FBK backs to pathetic trading mode.

The fun part about value investing. You see value, you buy and wait until the value being seen by others.

 

 

 

It was such a nice Friday before your comments. I removed MERC from my watch list. Crazy stuff I would have done quite well with a 2% position in Merc September options. Quite well indeed, up 30 - 40 points. I didnt think Sep would be enough time for the story to play out. Shows what I know.

 

We picked the wrong horse. Merc looks like Sea-biscuit. Perhaps we have Secretariat though, he likes to come from behind towards the end.

 

Oh well, ATSG is up nicely though.

Posted

As they're redeeming half of the Debs, hope they reinstitute a (modest) dividend right away. That may be the "catalyst" (as Al put it) to lift this moribond share price to where it should be and get some visibility.

Posted

 

Mercer up another 5%....$12.

 

FBK may be the worst performing stock in the industry....time to pressure management? The cycle only lasts

so long!

 

Dazel.

Posted

 

Mercer up another 5%....$12.

The cycle only lasts

so long!

 

Dazel.

 

Makes one also wonder were CFX may set it's dividend at.

 

Dan

Posted

Fbk is up 50% in a couple months and it is still the worst performing. 

Fbk is still the most undervalued too. 

MERC had what it appears to be a blow out quarter.

Nbsk pricing is firming. 

FBK stayed at $1.00 for the longest time.  Frustrating for a few months or so but, really?  How much more of an opportunity do potential shareholders need?

I looked at Apple in the low teens and thought I missed the ride when it hit the high teens in a few months. DUH!  Not the same, but kinda.

Posted

Im up 40% on what was dead money for 9 months. I missed a crap load of money with MERC but am sitting quite pretty. The fact of the matter is we will catch them or be taken over. MERC could buy us for a song using stock and everyone would take it.

 

I plan to buy a bit more FBK if we stay at $1.5 today but we will move. She always does.

Posted

Every dog has its day, Dawg.

 

US NBSKP – The tightness of the BSKP market shows also in the US market, especially as the shipments of market pulp to North America were good in December, up 10.6% for the month – against December 2009 – and by 5.7% for the year as a whole. At least two major producers have separately announced price initiatives from March 1 on the US market, both by 30 USD/ton. Our PIX NBSKP US index moved up by 49 cents, or by 0.05%, and closed at flat 960.00 USD/ton.

 

From Risi;

 

BRUSSELS , Feb. 15, 2011 (RISI) - Sweden's Billerud has informed clients that it will raise its price for northern bleached softwood kraft (NBSK) pulp in Europe by $30/tonne, effective March 1.

 

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