ERICOPOLY Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 Anybody seen this series? http://moneymorning.com/2011/05/23/where-money-goes-die-after-decade-decline-can-microsoft-intel-and-cisco-pull-off-rebound/ I can't say this is a compelling reason against owning them -- isn't this taught in the chart watcher school of stock picking? Of course, the show is called Fast Money after all. Over the last 10 years, while the Nasdaq Composite Index rose about 34% and the Standard & Poor's 500 Index 8%, Microsoft has slumped 25%, Intel 15% and Cisco 12.5%. "That's where money goes to die - all three of those stocks. I have no reason to own them," OptionMONSTER co-founder Jon Najarian told CNBC during a discussion of the trio's long history of poor returns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sswan11 Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 I would agree, though this seems to be what the market perceives right now. I own both MSFT and INTC, btw, and worked (as a contractor) at both, 94-98 at MS and 99-00 at Intel. Here's another article from same source: http://moneymorning.com/2011/05/26/after-a-decade-of-miscues-can-microsoft-corp-nasdaq-msft-hook-up-with-the-mobile-revolution/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest VAL9000 Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 I can't say this is a compelling reason against owning them -- isn't this taught in the chart watcher school of stock picking? Agreed - charts are meaningless in a value investing context. I read something today about Intel possibly manufacturing non-Intel designed chips (e.g. ARM chips). I thought that was surprising. I bet Intel is fervently working on a real competitor to chips like the A5, Snapdragon, Cortex, etc. And it's likely that they'll pair up with Microsoft's Windows 8 SoC/Tablet and WP7 operating systems handily. That is, an attempt to reproduce the Wintel monopoly on tablet and phone form factors is underway. If this is actually happening, Microsoft may have an interesting advantage over Apple in the tablet world. Whereas Apple requires that all application developers rebuild their offerings for the iOS operating system, Microsoft platform applications can more easily be ported to tablets. The meat of these thick-client applications is already compatible with the underlying operating system. The conversion effort will mostly be an exercise in UI redesign. Intel and Microsoft both have a lot to gain from maintaining this successful business relationship. You can bet that they will push hard to extend the PC to the tablet, and the tablet to the phone. Open question, at what point does a tablet become a phone, or a phone become a tablet? Other than size, my iPad and my friend's iPhone seem to support the exact same feature set (with Skype acting as my traditional phone set). Is a phone a tablet? What's in a name? PS. I have been using Bing on my work computer for two weeks now. I'm completely satisfied. There's no measurable gap between results. PPS. I made a smallish investment in MSFT, so I'm now long MSFT. I will probably make a more substantial buy over the coming weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
txlaw Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 I can't say this is a compelling reason against owning them -- isn't this taught in the chart watcher school of stock picking? Agreed - charts are meaningless in a value investing context. I read something today about Intel possibly manufacturing non-Intel designed chips (e.g. ARM chips). I thought that was surprising. I bet Intel is fervently working on a real competitor to chips like the A5, Snapdragon, Cortex, etc. And it's likely that they'll pair up with Microsoft's Windows 8 SoC/Tablet and WP7 operating systems handily. That is, an attempt to reproduce the Wintel monopoly on tablet and phone form factors is underway. If this is actually happening, Microsoft may have an interesting advantage over Apple in the tablet world. Whereas Apple requires that all application developers rebuild their offerings for the iOS operating system, Microsoft platform applications can more easily be ported to tablets. The meat of these thick-client applications is already compatible with the underlying operating system. The conversion effort will mostly be an exercise in UI redesign. Intel and Microsoft both have a lot to gain from maintaining this successful business relationship. You can bet that they will push hard to extend the PC to the tablet, and the tablet to the phone. Open question, at what point does a tablet become a phone, or a phone become a tablet? Other than size, my iPad and my friend's iPhone seem to support the exact same feature set (with Skype acting as my traditional phone set). Is a phone a tablet? What's in a name? PS. I have been using Bing on my work computer for two weeks now. I'm completely satisfied. There's no measurable gap between results. PPS. I made a smallish investment in MSFT, so I'm now long MSFT. I will probably make a more substantial buy over the coming weeks. That would be dangerous for them to try to reproduce Wintel, and recent statements between the two companies suggest that they aren't so buddy buddy. Take a look at this article: http://arstechnica.com/microsoft/news/2011/05/intel-takes-pot-shots-at-arm-windows-misses-point-completely.ars Microsoft doesn't want Intel saying that legacy Microsoft programs won't be supported by Windows on ARM. And Intel is just saying that to show that they may get more market share than is expected because of the purported legacy software issue. My thinking is that MSFT will want to work with all the manufacturers to get Windows on as many devices as possible. Intel is not going to have a monopoly on these new mobile devices. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest VAL9000 Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 That would be dangerous for them to try to reproduce Wintel, and recent statements between the two companies suggest that they aren't so buddy buddy. This pairing matters more to Intel than it does to Microsoft. I don't think that it's particularly dangerous for either party if they reproduce this monopoly. I do think that it's dangerous if they both move aggressively in that direction.. the backlash would be significant. Branching some of the monopoly talk over to this thread, monopoly market power is very desirable and the problems really only crop up when that power is abused. Intel will have to take the lead on pushing out rivals because of what's at stake for them. Given what's at stake, I expect Intel to be very aggressive about this. Take a look at this article: http://arstechnica.com/microsoft/news/2011/05/intel-takes-pot-shots-at-arm-windows-misses-point-completely.ars Microsoft doesn't want Intel saying that legacy Microsoft programs won't be supported by Windows on ARM. And Intel is just saying that to show that they may get more market share than is expected because of the purported legacy software issue. Yeah Microsoft doesn't want them saying that, but it is true to a degree. .Net applications will be fine, and native C applications will have compatible compilers, so most applications will be compatible. The trickiness is when you get down into assembly-level application code. Assembler on ARM is completely different than assembler on x86, so code rewrites will need to occur at that level. This isn't really all that big of a deal, however. Ars gets it right in that the UI efforts will far exceed the porting efforts, but Ars makes the mistake of assuming that all SoC devices will adopt the tablet form factor. This isn't true. The SoC chipset will grow up into traditional computing as the Intel chipset shrinks down into low power computing. My thinking is that MSFT will want to work with all the manufacturers to get Windows on as many devices as possible. Intel is not going to have a monopoly on these new mobile devices. Agreed. The game theory works out that way for them. It's a low cost bet for them to support all architectures for now. Over time, winners will be declared and losers will have their support dropped. We'll see if the PC world was instructive or an anomaly in this regard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
S2S Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Updates on the (developing) Microsoft tablet strategy: A trio of sources speaking to Bloomberg have seemingly shed light on Acer's concerns with Microsoft's new tablet strategy. Seems that the boys beneath Ballmer hope to speed delivery of the company's new tablet OS by limiting variations. To accomplish this, Microsoft is offering incentives to chip and computer makers that agree to form sole alliances (i.e., one chipmaker works exclusively with one computer manufacturer) including enhanced feature sets and lower prices on Microsoft software. Under the plan, chip suppliers will be able to select a second company to produce a clamshell-style laptop using Microsoft's next wares. The plan is not mandatory and does not apply to desktop use of Microsoft next operating system, according to Bloomberg's sources. However, if true, then it represents a dramatic departure from Microsoft's traditional war-of-attrition approach to the laptop and tablet market that has resulted in a near limitless choice of brands and configurations so synonymous with Wintel... And now DigiTimes has jumped in with support for Acer CEO, J.T. Wang, claiming that Taiwan's PC makers have been excluded from Microsoft's Integrated Development Program (IDP) for Windows 8 tablet PCs. According to the Taiwanese rumor rag, long time Microsoft partners Acer, ASUS, and even HTC have been shut out of the proceedings. Instead, DigiTimes claims that chipmakers Intel, AMD, TI, Qualcomm and NVIDIA have been invited by Microsoft to choose manufacturers from a first-round list of participants limited to Dell, HP, and Samsung. http://www.engadget.com/2011/06/01/microsoft-incentivizing-chipmakers-and-tablet-manufacturers-to-f/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
txlaw Posted June 2, 2011 Share Posted June 2, 2011 Windows 8 UI Preview: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p92QfWOw88I&feature=youtu.be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest VAL9000 Posted June 2, 2011 Share Posted June 2, 2011 I'm happy to see two of my UI annoyances with touch browsers have been addressed: landscape mode keyboard can't be reached with your thumbs, and the browser nav bar is at the bottom of the screen instead of the top. This looks pretty cool. We'll see how it plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
txlaw Posted June 2, 2011 Share Posted June 2, 2011 It's a pretty radical change. I suspect a lot of the business users who want continuity in terms of the way their employees interact with their work computers will keep the old UI, which is an option in Windows 8. I'm not really a fan of the tile interface. But some of the other stuff in the video was pretty cool. It will be interesting to compare it with iOS 5, OSX Lion, and whatever else Apple announces next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Myth465 Posted June 2, 2011 Share Posted June 2, 2011 I think some of you guys are being a bit rough. This isnt a hot dog stand business where 5-8x earnings makes sense. It is probably the most dominate tech company on the planet. I dont like to pay up for anything but they have a virtual monopoly which will grow with the computing industry. Thats worth at least 10x - 12x earnings after cash deductions. Windows 8 makes a good catalyst for 2013 leaps. MBI down a few more to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest HarryLong Posted June 3, 2011 Share Posted June 3, 2011 Our systems have me short MSFT. It will be interesting to see how this plays out. I think I have only a 60% chance of making money off this short. As Paul Tudor Jones once said, "The obvious trade is obviously wrong." I must be the only guy on this thread to make any money so far on MSFT ;D It could always go the other way, we'll see what happens. This seems like it might turn into one of those divergent problems in which the structure of the problem itself almost guarantees that most people will not be able to solve it correctly. As a friend of mine once pointed out, that's why certain problems, such as education, are very hard for democracies to solve, they are divergent problems by their very nature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rranjan Posted June 3, 2011 Share Posted June 3, 2011 Our systems have me short MSFT. It will be interesting to see how this plays out. I think I have only a 60% chance of making money off this short. I must be the only guy on this thread to make any money so far on MSFT ;D I think the last laugh matters most ;D Care to share the logic why it's a good short? Let’s not take 5-7% price fluctuations in few months as logic. I will be interested to see if you have any rational argument for shorting this. May be I am missing something and it will help me. If it’s purely based on technical’s or charts or something similar then we are talking two different language and you can ignore my question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
enoch01 Posted June 3, 2011 Share Posted June 3, 2011 This seems like it might turn into one of those divergent problems in which the structure of the problem itself almost guarantees that most people will not be able to solve it correctly. Why do you think that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
20ppy Posted June 3, 2011 Share Posted June 3, 2011 Shorting stocks appears to be the last choice for most people on this board, even if you make money sometimes. "There’s plenty of money to be made in the center of the court". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benchmark Posted June 6, 2011 Share Posted June 6, 2011 I think it's both, you have both options. Also, in the money 2013 calls with strikes like $15 are selling for $9.50; i.e. 15+9.5 = 24.5, with current price at 24.2. Or 12.5 + 11.8 = 24.3, vs 24.2. That way you don't have to worry about expiring options. I'm also trying to get a handle on options. Are you saying that buy in the money option in this case is better that Jan 2013 25 option for $2.37, which has the largest number of open positions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prunes Posted June 10, 2011 Share Posted June 10, 2011 IDC: Windows Phone 7 / Windows Mobile to command #2 spot globally in mobile OS market by 2015, lagging behind Android - http://www.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?containerId=prUS22871611 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ERICOPOLY Posted June 10, 2011 Share Posted June 10, 2011 IDC: Windows Phone 7 / Windows Mobile to command #2 spot globally in mobile OS market by 2015, lagging behind Android - http://www.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?containerId=prUS22871611 They need to stop calling these things "smartphones". They're no more "phone" than "camera", or many other things. Maybe they are "smartbrowsers", or just truly "pocket computers". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest VAL9000 Posted June 10, 2011 Share Posted June 10, 2011 They need to stop calling these things "smartphones". They're no more "phone" than "camera", or many other things. Maybe they are "smartbrowsers", or just truly "pocket computers". Way to channel your inner crotchety old man! Why settle on Pocket Computer? I think Miniature Mainframe, or Smarter Dumb Terminal, or even Super-Advanced Difference Engine would be just as accurate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ERICOPOLY Posted June 10, 2011 Share Posted June 10, 2011 They need to stop calling these things "smartphones". They're no more "phone" than "camera", or many other things. Maybe they are "smartbrowsers", or just truly "pocket computers". Way to channel your inner crotchety old man! Why settle on Pocket Computer? I think Miniature Mainframe, or Smarter Dumb Terminal, or even Super-Advanced Difference Engine would be just as accurate. Mine is a streaming media server (iPhone streaming iTunes via bluetooth to my Pioneer Elite receiver). I probably did get the "pocket computer" name from the days when we were impressed by a "pocket" calculator. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ERICOPOLY Posted June 10, 2011 Share Posted June 10, 2011 They need to stop calling these things "smartphones". They're no more "phone" than "camera", or many other things. Maybe they are "smartbrowsers", or just truly "pocket computers". Way to channel your inner crotchety old man! Why settle on Pocket Computer? I think Miniature Mainframe, or Smarter Dumb Terminal, or even Super-Advanced Difference Engine would be just as accurate. Mine is a streaming media server (iPhone streaming iTunes via bluetooth to my Pioneer Elite receiver). I probably did get the "pocket computer" name from the days when we were impressed by a "pocket" calculator. Ericopoly Why stream with bluetooth? Why not get an airport express and a toslink cable? This is my area, it will sound a lot better. Heck, you can even get an apple TV, hook up HDMI or Optical and with the touch of a button stream to the pioneer without having to turn on the TV, but get the free option of using apple TVs services as well. DW Bluetooth is already there, and it sounds "good". My hearing isn't the best in the world though, and I'd have to hear it side by side with the other to see if I can really tell the difference. Perhaps I'd have to upgrade my amplifier and speakers to really know the difference. Thanks for the suggestions. Will now have to go and read about airport express and toslink. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted June 10, 2011 Share Posted June 10, 2011 If what is being transmitted over the bluetooth connection is a digital file, it should sound just the same as if it came from another source. But if the file is being decoded on the device and it's the analogue signal that is being transmitted, then yes, sound quality is probably being degraded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest misterstockwell Posted June 15, 2011 Share Posted June 15, 2011 http://www.engadget.com/2011/06/15/windows-phone-beta-app-plays-nice-with-whs-2011-streams-media-f/?icid=maing-grid7%7Caim%7Cdl6%7Csec3_lnk3%7C70684 This is an excellent development for those who want their own personal cloud without paying Jobs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prunes Posted June 16, 2011 Share Posted June 16, 2011 Microsoft's CEO, Steve Ballmer, is rumored to step down after Windows 8 launch, Business Insider reports. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zarley Posted June 16, 2011 Share Posted June 16, 2011 Probably better to not post baseless rumors . . . certainly without a link or any context. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest VAL9000 Posted June 17, 2011 Share Posted June 17, 2011 1. It's a mistake to believe cellular bandwidth is or will become inexpensive to deploy. Every time the government put up a dozen MHz or so of spectrum on the block, bidding ends at $1B+. AT&T's shelling out $35B+ for T-Mobile US and in the process taking on significant regulatory risk of ramming the deal through the DoJ and the FCC, Clearwire and Lightsquare's having any value at all despite being massive capital sinkhole; it all goes back to the spectrum landgrab. Ask yourself why Sprint's CapEx is going up 50+% year over year. All that while over the air Netflix, video calling etc etc are still far from mainstream. I just came across an interesting data series on this exact topic, so I thought I'd resurface the idea that carriers will go all data instead of voice+txt+data as they do today: http://blog.nielsen.com/nielsenwire/online_mobile/average-u-s-smartphone-data-usage-up-89-as-cost-per-mb-goes-down-46/ In 1 year, the cost of bandwidth has been cut in half, while data usage has shot up 90%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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