AI/GPU/Data Center Bubble Collapsing?

[rogermunibond]

This rumor/news keeps getting brought up - TD Cowen says MSFT canceling

 

https://archive.ph/RAxeI

 

Joe Tsai says start of AI bubble in the US

 

https://www.reuters.com/technology/alibaba-chairman-says-china-business-more-confident-since-xis-tech-summit-2025-03-25/

[Cityzoo]

Not sure how accurate the analysis is, but for someone whose feet are both firmly planted on the sideline and who hasn't done any digging into AI stocks whatsoever, this segment really helped destroy any FOMO feelings I might have (briefly) had...

 

https://www.wnycstudios.org/podcasts/otm/articles/brooke-talks-ai-with-ed-zitron 

[Milu]

With meta at pe of 25, google at around 20. Which bubble stocks do you feel are at risk of collapse? As far as I’m aware most AI companies such as open ai, Anthropic etc are private companies.

[Ver]

I haven't seen good substantiated arguments in favor of this. Where is the root of this claimed collapse coming from, Deepseek-type model optimization? Why would Jevon's paradox not apply?

 

Yes Microsoft cancelled a few leases. However the cancelled leases were immediately grabbed by Google and Meta and "Microsoft says it remains on track to spend about $80 billion building out AI data centers in its fiscal year that ends in June."

 

Core data center requirements like power supply are booked 2 years out in certain areas. Hyperscaler capex is real. It may slow but will it drop off a cliff?

 

22 minutes ago, Milu said:

With meta at pe of 25, google at around 20. Which bubble stocks do you feel are at risk of collapse? As far as I’m aware most AI companies such as open ai, Anthropic etc are private companies.

Data center suppliers are one category. Nvidia, Broadcom, Marvell, Credo, Vertiv, Astera labs etc. 

[Castanza]

People were saying and writing articles about Cloud in 2010+ calling for “peak usage and buildout”. The market then was about ~24b. Here we sit today pushing ~800b. I think it’s likely AI will be the same over the next decade+. Computing is still in its infancy; and I don’t think companies will stop finding ways to become more efficient. This is just a new avenue of optimization. 

“Everyone is a tech company” has a different meaning today that it did in 99/00. 

Example:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/reuvencohen/2012/05/24/interest-in-cloud-computing-has-peaked/

 

[rogermunibond]

Coreweave IPO downsized.

 

$40 IPO price - latest looks like it will open trading at... $40

 

Data center capex is going to be cyclical just as many other things are.