In the context of add speculation -

[Haryana]

The TSX60 add may happen or Not.

 

The price may spike after the add or Not.

 

The price may spike before result date or Not.

 

[KFRCanuk]

Diamond Hands!

[Haryana]

This poll is anonymous but feel free to disclose and/or discuss your vote to compare with the result on the New Year 2025. 

 

I voted CAD 2100 just for being one conservative speculator! 

[hardcorevalue]

not seeing what the value add is on this stuff. feels like dogecoin traders speculating on next weeks price. 

 

good luck if that’s your thing though

[Haryana]

On 11/14/2024 at 9:01 AM, hardcorevalue said:

not seeing what the value add is on this stuff. feels like dogecoin traders speculating on next weeks price. 

 

good luck if that’s your thing though

Au Contraire!

 

Rather than being about short term speculation, this is about quantifying discussion around the speculation of the Tsx add.

 
The qualitative discussion gets deviated from main topic and it is difficult to make an analysis. 

 

We see that Fairfax investors are highly conservative and just expect touch of $2000 before year end while we have already touched 1950 today. 

 

Fairfax retail investors, like the ones on this board, are unlikely to have caused the run up in the share price, rather they are looking to trim their position as per their position comfort level.

 

Institutionals and funds are the likely buyers at present as they would want to look good when it gets added for having held it.

[Haryana]

Final call to vote in this poll!

 

Long term investing is boring. 

 

However that is a good thing, a virtue in the value framework.

 

This boringness can make one vulnerable to the temptations of more lucrative opportunities in the near short term, though. 

 

This poll is just one attempt to keep things interesting for the long term buy and hold types. 

[KFRCanuk]

Coming in late here. Didn't want to start a new post.

 

If you believe the CBC, the Canadian dollar is trending down vs USD.

 

 

I'm unsure how that affect's the stock  price.

[Xerxes]

As long as it reaches $2025 before the calendar year changes to 2025, it is a win !

[Haryana]

The volatility of the stock is too high in addition to the volatility of the earnings and diversity of international sources to worry about the impact of changes in exchange rate. The Canadian dollar may weaken in the short term but now it is reaching the historic lows and may recover over the longer term to parity. 

 

People who are gambling on the crypto to hedge against inflation may think of buying Canadian assets that should recover if resources boom. 

https://globalnews.ca/news/66674/timeline-the-rise-and-fall-of-the-canadian-loonie/

December 31, 2010: The Canadian dollar ends 2010 above parity with the U.S. currency, closing at its highest level in more than two and a half years amid rising commodity prices, at 100.54 cents U.S.

[Haryana]

S&P update, game day chant ~ 

 

 

Two Financials Above Fairfax ~ 

 

Two Financials Below Fairfax ~ 

 

All four belong in the Tsx60 ~ 

 

Not the Fairfax, that's a pity ~ 

 

[Haryana]

No impact from non-inclusion. 

 

Green among ranks of reds. 

 

Canadian by market cap. 

https://companiesmarketcap.com/canada/largest-companies-in-canada-by-market-cap/ 

[dartmonkey]

 

 

 

The 2 big recent phenomena are that it is becoming clear, since November 5, that Canada has some pretty major existential problems. But Canadian companies with a majority of their business activities in the US (like Fairfax) might be expected to fare better. 
 

The other thing is, these are results over the last 30 days. We found out Fairfax would not be included in the TSX 60 10 days ago, and that graph is for the last 30 days. If you look at just the last third of the curve, Fairfax is about even, not up. And that is really because FRFHF is down (2-3%), but the Canadian dollar is down about 3%, so the Canadian dollar FFH looks like it's up 2-3%, when it's really just the currency effect.

 

In the end, none of this matters - what's important is earnings earnings earnings, and higher interest rates are going to help Fairfax, along with share repurchases well below intrinsic value and just starting at such a low valuation. The really striking thing is looking at Canadian companies by earnings, and Fairfax jumps from #24 to #11. And on top of that, Fairfax's earnings in the next few years are already locked in, much more reliable than the 4 energy companies in front of them or the 5 banks in front of them. I still feel pretty good about their prospects.

 

 

[SafetyinNumbers]

34 minutes ago, dartmonkey said:

 

 

In the end, none of this matters - what's important is earnings earnings earnings, and higher interest rates are going to help Fairfax, along with share repurchases well below intrinsic value and just starting at such a low valuation. The really striking thing is looking at Canadian companies by earnings, and Fairfax jumps from #24 to #11. And on top of that, Fairfax's earnings in the next few years are already locked in, much more reliable than the 4 energy companies in front of them or the 5 banks in front of them. I still feel pretty good about their prospects.

 

 

 

Very true. FFH has a much better set up that the companies ahead of it because it’s base ROE is very high as @dartmonkey highlighted and because it can surprise to the upside given the various right tails in the equity portfolio (BIAL, EUROB, KI etc…) and the optionality of the fixed income portfolio. 
 

The probability of FFH averaging >15% ROE over the next 5 years has to be very high. The true over/under on  average ROE for the next 5 years is probably closer to 17.5%.