Where do REIT'S go from here ?

[Ulti]

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/jonathan-miller-on-urban-real-estate/id730188152?i=1000567635324

good discussion on mf overbuild, sunbelt, NYC,and all thing RE

[maplevalue]

Around 6 minutes Bridgewater's Karionol-Tambour discusses how commodities a tricky inflation hedge given idiosyncratic risk, but also their sensitivity to growth https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UhM8ETH-H3c&list=WL&index=25.

 

REITs an interesting asset as their cashflows are inflation protected, and in a growth slowdown scenario you still can probably get rent growth (especially if next slowdown we see more direct cash transfers to individuals). As @Gregmal has said they are like the new and improved treasury bond.

 

 

[Gregmal]

Yup, it’s a beautiful thing. If the “stonks” go down cuz people that push paper wanna create fictitious narratives all the better. These types of assets are unbelievably dynamic, resilient, and low risk. 
 

Of course I also wanna make clear I am speaking of the US housing and rental markets, not Canada. I don’t know enough about Canada real estate markets to have a high level opinion, I also don’t live there or invest there so I don’t care what happens there. On the surface the fundamentals in Canada look significantly worse than the US. But rather than get all caught up in doom and gloom I think it’s important to respect and even appreciate what the Canadian housing market has done now for two decade and then extrapolate that to what can happen in the US which is a better and more liquid market.

Edited June 25, 2022 by Gregmal

[thowed]

Things are quite different in Europe also.  Vonovia, which is generally considered one of the high quality, blue chip German Residential companies (also in Sweden) has collapsed, and seems pretty cheap just on replacement value.  Overall I am not keen on Europe, but this seems kind of a no-brainer.

[Dinar]

7 hours ago, thowed said:

Things are quite different in Europe also.  Vonovia, which is generally considered one of the high quality, blue chip German Residential companies (also in Sweden) has collapsed, and seems pretty cheap just on replacement value.  Overall I am not keen on Europe, but this seems kind of a no-brainer.

I thought that their EBITDA growth was 2% per annum excluding acquisitions, no?

[Ulti]

https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/national-rent-data

[Ulti]

https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/rent-increases-up-sharply-year-over-2e1

[Ulti]

https://www.zumper.com/blog/rental-price-data/

[Gregmal]

Fun fact

in the early 1980s, amidst double digit inflation, yes much worse than the fabricated crisis we have now where people are saying omg 8%, MetLife supposedly bought their NYC office tower from Pan-Am at a 3! Cap rate!

[Ulti]

https://www.yahoo.com/news/rental-trends-study-finds-10-090023847.html

[Gregmal]

Shitty hospitality property sells for 98% of list price and sub 5 cap. Let’s hear more about rising rates! Obviously the stonk market knows best, just like it did during COVID and every other knee jerk panic period I’ve ever witnessed.

Edited July 7, 2022 by Gregmal

[Ulti]

https://cre.moodysanalytics.com/insights/cre-trends/q2-2022-preliminary-trend-announcement/

[Gregmal]

1 hour ago, Ulti said:

https://cre.moodysanalytics.com/insights/cre-trends/q2-2022-preliminary-trend-announcement/

Meanwhile public market participants largely shit their pants 

[Ulti]

 

 

Gregmal,

 The numbers below say it all.... Kinda like oil staying in the $100 range... If rents remain flat for the forseable future...$$$....A question for you...How does an AIV

reward its shareholders... The way they are cleaning up their balance sheet...FCF should improve over the next few years... Is it the usual share buybacks with selling the company like APTS....And I guess for me the more important question as a shareholder is this a situation that no matter how shitty management is ..hard to fuck up? I'm a neophyte when it comes to MF...but I do read a ton about it.  And like oil, its hard to argue with the numbers below.

Thanks

 

 

 

 

 

[Gregmal]

Yup. It’s a boa constrictor type fundamental situation. I think VRE here too is extremely interesting now well below tangible book. I need to catch up on the day to day there but I also believe their standstill with an activist ends soon. That’s a double from here if it sells, at least. 
 

Housing is the only market in the world where you can have all time high pricing month after month, yet still have some clueless “pros”, analysts, twitterers, and hedge fund guys claim it’s imploding LOL. 

[Ulti]

ha sounds like the ESG of REIT's

Veris Residential, Inc. is a forward-thinking, environmentally- and socially-conscious real estate investment trust (REIT) that primarily owns, operates, acquires, and develops holistically-inspired, Class A multifamily properties that meet the sustainability-conscious lifestyle needs of today's residents while seeking to positively impact the communities it serves and the planet at large. The company is guided by an experienced management team and Board of Directors and is underpinned by leading corporate governance principles, a best-in-class and sustainable approach to operations, and an inclusive culture based on equality and meritocratic empowerment. For additional information on Veris Residential, Inc. and our properties available for lease, please visit http://www.verisresidential.com/.

[Gregmal]

Yea the PRs make me wanna vomit. But those new waterfront properties…..

[Ulti]

,The Office portfolio contributes more revenues and NOI than its multifamily.

How they going to transition to a pure MF Reit ? Isn't office kinda hard to get rid of nowadays?

[Gregmal]

They’re in the process of monetizing them. Same for a bunch of their land bank. At the current valuation you don’t need a 6 cap on the office for it to work. Debt is going to continue to be paid down and company simplified. We ve seen this story before. It’s just totally unloved and off the radar. Basically an orphan stock. No dividend reit with shitty screening metrics and a dumb name. 

[Ulti]

https://www.wsj.com/articles/miamis-gold-rush-finance-firms-and-crypto-suarez-rents-development-boom-11657317076?st=xmtw3igtwhb929q&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

 

hope link opens

[Ulti]

https://abnormalreturns.com/2022/07/10/sunday-links-recession-calling/

under finance ...should open

[Gregmal]

13 minutes ago, Ulti said:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/miamis-gold-rush-finance-firms-and-crypto-suarez-rents-development-boom-11657317076?st=xmtw3igtwhb929q&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

 

hope link opens

Yea crypto is huge in Miami, for better or worse. 
 

The chart says it all though and it’s why those still holding out hope of the CA/NY vs FL blue state resurgence just don’t get it at all. Money talks. 
 

 

[Gregmal]

More totally agenda/narrative driven and misdirecting headlines. 
 

The death blow that we were told of a 5-6% mortgage created an uptick of a whopping 2-3% increase in cancellations. Cancellations are almost always a low teens number. Now it’s a headline.
 

Rents keep “slowing” but have not only failed to come back to levels that were said to be unsustainable by the experts, but they’re still INCREASING!

 

I guess eventually the housing bears will be correct, just not anytime soon.  
 

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3855756-home-sales-face-highest-cancellation-rate-since-pandemic-start-redfin

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/11/homebuyers-are-canceling-deals-at-highest-rate-since-start-of-covid.html

Edited July 11, 2022 by Gregmal

[Ulti]

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/11/business/economy/rent-inflation-interest-rates.html

[Ulti]

https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/june-housing-starts-all-time-record