changegonnacome Posted May 6 Posted May 6 6 minutes ago, cubsfan said: The great conundrum- ANY written & agreed deal with the Iranian regime is useless. Unless someone, US or others, enforce it. Thank goodness for Israel given Europe is useless and afraid. The regime can't ever be trusted, and must be overthrown. They know if they are overthrown, it's a death sentence, therefore they will fight to the end. IF they fight to the end, the IRGC will be killed anyway and much of Iran will be destroyed. The question is how long will this take? America has NO stomach for another Iraq or Afghanistan and if it requires boots on the ground, it's not going to happen. I think you've pretty much nailed it here.........and just described the conundrum Obama/Kerry and many previous adminstrations before that faced........JCPOA was a piece of shit deal, done with a bunch untrustworthy people with alterior motives and where you couldnt get everything you wanted for as long as you wanted and so the deal had a tonne of deficiencies and compromises that made it perfect foil for political attack....... Israel as discussed HATES any deal with Iran - no deal will ever be good enough as Donald Trump is about to find out when the attacks start on his deal or prospective deal......but relative to the alternatives JCPOA was bad deal but a good deal when seen in the context of every other option you could think off......we are currently living inside one of the alternative options the JCPOA negotiators envisaged and ruled out.......must be pleasing for them to see how STUCK Trump is, what damage has been incurred to the global economy to achieve essentially no political outcome above and beyond what was available in Feb....... The JCPOA was painful exercise in extreme pragmatism......Operation Epic Fury was an exercise in extreme wishful thinking & hubris.
73 Reds Posted May 6 Posted May 6 (edited) 1 hour ago, changegonnacome said: Which makes Trump's desire to reach for some kind of gold plated forever deal with Iran on a nuclear deal so illogical if you really think about it . Its functionally meaningless to get Iran to sign a deal with no enrichment forever clause. I know the conditioning around the JCPOA's sunsetting clause was one of the great sticks used to beat up that deal.....but I've always viewed the JCPOA as a bad deal just way better than any of the other options I could think off. Critics loved beating up the sunsetting clause....but as we've just discussed.... there is no forever with this stuff. its just not how the world works. Which confirms something that I think @73 Reds and I have agreed on before.......Israel & Bibi's strategic assessment is correct here re:Iran and I completely understand it from their point of view and I would want the same if I lived in Israel - which is to say if you want to guarantee a no nuclear Iran over the medium-long term you need to destroy the current Iranian regime in entirety (plain and simple) and replace it totally with a Western aligned one AND if that option isn't available to you go for Door 2 which is the Syria option and you effectively attempt to dismantle Iran as a functioning nation state.....the most obvious way to do that given there is no coherent opposition movement there is to tip it into Civil War. Given the US seemingly won't comply with boots on the ground required to topple and replace the regime, I suspect strategist in Tel Aviv are already working on ways to potentially send Iran into a chaotic civil war. Donald Trump is about is about to discover the hard way, as Obama did - there is no plausible US-Iran nuclear deal good enough to satisfy Bibi/Israel. That is simply the reality. Because Bibi gets what we just agreed. Enforceability variability across US Presidential administrations just cant be trusted. You have to destroy this Iranian regime. There is no other answer for Bibi/Israel. The chances of boots, in great numbers, landing on the ground in Iran is very low. So not like those two. What will potentially mark this out as failure that exceeds those two boondoggles......is (a) how voluntary it was in nature but (b) just the level of direct and indirect US and Global economic costs and damage that we're incurred with so little to show for it.....as I said the success/failure equation for this war is quite simple when you get down to it: Feb 26 nuclear terms available in Geneva VERSUS Final deal terms....against.........the total costs incurred and status quo in the region when those final deal terms are signed (for example will Iran have SOH Toll booth!). All the evidence today is pointing to final deal terms that are inferior to Geneva......and Trump's threat to bail on the SOH points to a post-war Status Quo is meaningfully worse. You go to war to meaningfully improve a political outcome......if that outcome is worse than what was available pre-war....well I wont use words like won or lost as they trigger people....but I think its fair to say that things didn't play out as one would have hoped before you hit go on Epic Fury, you certainly didn't go into it to end up back where you started or worse?!?! I think Israel prefers a military option and Israel will enforce any US/Iran deal militarily if it must. Its just not objective at all to suggest this exercise has not already been very successful. Iran has been set WAY back. Any attempt to restock nuclear weapons will be immediately (militarily) addressed - either by the US and/or or Israel. I agree that no "deal" with the present Iranian leadership is worth the paper it is written on, but there are other issues at play so a deal of some sort is the likely outcome. Israel's policy about dealing with terrorists is the correct one - don't. Which is why enforcement is probably not as big an issue as you might think. Edited May 6 by 73 Reds word
Parsad Posted May 6 Posted May 6 3 hours ago, cubsfan said: I love how critics dump on Kushner & Witkoff, while the flunky team of John Kerry, Anthony Blinken and Ivy League clown car got totally taken to the cleaners by the Iranians. Boy, does the IRGC wish they had those suckers back: "Yeah, we'll be good, we promise - no nukes or ICMBs"! Hilarious The hypocrisy is crazy, right? Kind of like how Trump wanted to indict Powell for the increase in the cost of the Treasury building, but the Ballroom's price has now risen from $200M to $1.4B! Do you want to indict Trump now? Crazy the hypocrisy! Right...just crazy! Fuck me! Cheers!
Parsad Posted May 6 Posted May 6 2 hours ago, cwericb said: Oh for crying out loud, Trump had been telling the whole world that he was going to attack Iran for how long? Consulting with the allies first and asking for their support in advance wouldn't not cross a narcissist's mind as he believed this would be over in 4 days, a month, etc and he would be able to have all the glory to himself. Instead, "Donald the Conqueror" owns what he started and as of yet he hasn't conquered anything. No regime change, no win. Don't like Trump, don't agree with how he attacked Iran without ally support, but fuck Iran too! They cannot hold the SOH hostage like they want to do. It's not theirs! And this is where Cubs et al is correct...the Gulf States, Europe and Asia need to do something here, regardless of how the world arrived at this situation! Israel and the U.S. also have responsibility here in terms of settlement, reform, rebuilding, etc...they are culpable, but they have also given the world a chance at finally getting some peace and control in the Middle East. Iran should have zero sole control of the SOH...a joint union including Gulf States, Europe, Asia & Iran should form, to allow free economic trade and shipping to happen through there. Cheers!
73 Reds Posted May 6 Posted May 6 3 minutes ago, Parsad said: Don't like Trump, don't agree with how he attacked Iran without ally support, but fuck Iran too! They cannot hold the SOH hostage like they want to do. It's not theirs! And this is where Cubs et al is correct...the Gulf States, Europe and Asia need to do something here, regardless of how the world arrived at this situation! Israel and the U.S. also have responsibility here in terms of settlement, reform, rebuilding, etc...they are culpable, but they have also given the world a chance at finally getting some peace and control in the Middle East. Iran should have zero sole control of the SOH...a joint union including Gulf States, Europe, Asia & Iran should form, to allow free economic trade and shipping to happen through there. Cheers! You are quick to throw blame around. Easy for someone whose survival is not at stake. Newsflash: The US had all the ally (and probably the only one) it needed. No thanks to anyone else willing to be blown up just to save face. Sooner or later you'll thank Trump and Bibi - publicly or otherwise.
changegonnacome Posted May 6 Posted May 6 18 minutes ago, 73 Reds said: Its just not objective at all to suggest this exercise has not already been very successful. Iran has been set WAY back. 100% immense physical, military capability and economic damage has been done to Iran. Thats great - but we all know what the purpose of the war was right....it was to topple the regime and if toppling the regime wasnt possible it was to beat them so badly that they capitulated at the negotiating table delivering a 'deal' superior to what was available on Feb 26th in Geneva. We got no regime change and one can argue we've meaningfully radicalized the regime by ascending the position of the IRGC...... And based on all the reporting - the deal on the virtual table in Pakistan has worse terms than what was in Geneva. If I was Trump's advisor......my advise would be the following.......you need to get out of there and the best nuclear deal is no nuclear deal cause you cant do better than Feb 26th Geneva offer and you can't do meaningfully better than the JCPOA and so to sign anything is to end up with egg on your face, essentially Epic Fury was an Epic Failure. Iran today is cleverly offering that off ramp today........Straits re-opened, moratorium on enrichment and a re-opening of nuclear negotiating......those negotiations never need to reach a conclusion inside Trump's T2 and so he never needs to be embarrassed.
cubsfan Posted May 6 Posted May 6 28 minutes ago, changegonnacome said: I think you've pretty much nailed it here.........and just described the conundrum Obama/Kerry and many previous adminstrations before that faced........JCPOA was a piece of shit deal, done with a bunch untrustworthy people with alterior motives and where you couldnt get everything you wanted for as long as you wanted and so the deal had a tonne of deficiencies and compromises that made it perfect foil for political attack....... Israel as discussed HATES any deal with Iran - no deal will ever be good enough as Donald Trump is about to find out when the attacks start on his deal or prospective deal......but relative to the alternatives JCPOA was bad deal but a good deal when seen in the context of every other option you could think off......we are currently living inside one of the alternative options the JCPOA negotiators envisaged and ruled out.......must be pleasing for them to see how STUCK Trump is, what damage has been incurred to the global economy to achieve essentially no political outcome above and beyond what was available in Feb....... The JCPOA was painful exercise in extreme pragmatism......Operation Epic Fury was an exercise in extreme wishful thinking & hubris. Ok, I'm good with that. Israel won't really like a deal Trump signs up for...not shocking. The US is not subject to the kind of losses Israel is, and you don't see the kind of patriotism in the US as you see in Israel: they are in a fight for existence. The US is a much "softer country" than Israel - just not as soft as most of Europe. The Jury is still out on Epic Fury Change!
cubsfan Posted May 6 Posted May 6 34 minutes ago, Parsad said: The hypocrisy is crazy, right? Kind of like how Trump wanted to indict Powell for the increase in the cost of the Treasury building, but the Ballroom's price has now risen from $200M to $1.4B! Do you want to indict Trump now? Crazy the hypocrisy! Right...just crazy! Fuck me! Cheers! Haha! I had no idea. I thought it was being funded by private donations. My bad. But if you can't impeach Powell for being a bozo, then you can't impeach Trumpie either! Sorry bro!
73 Reds Posted May 6 Posted May 6 (edited) 9 minutes ago, changegonnacome said: 100% immense physical, military capability and economic damage has been done to Iran. Thats great - but we all know what the purpose of the war was right....it was to topple the regime and if toppling the regime wasnt possible it was to beat them so badly that they capitulated at the negotiating table delivering a 'deal' superior to what was available on Feb 26th in Geneva. We got no regime change and one can argue we've meaningfully radicalized the regime by ascending the position of the IRGC...... And based on all the reporting - the deal on the virtual table in Pakistan has worse terms than what was in Geneva. If I was Trump's advisor......my advise would be the following.......you need to get out of there and the best nuclear deal is no nuclear deal cause you cant do better than Feb 26th Geneva offer and you can't do meaningfully better than the JCPOA and so to sign anything is to end up with egg on your face, essentially Epic Fury was an Epic Failure. Iran today is cleverly offering that off ramp today........Straits re-opened, moratorium on enrichment and a re-opening of nuclear negotiating......those negotiations never need to reach a conclusion inside Trump's T2 and so he never needs to be embarrassed. If this were done and over, I'd be inclined to agree with you. But the mistake is thinking that once a "deal" is reached, everyone goes home and life goes on the way it did before. You're entirely right about the real objective being regime change. That could take months, years or not happen at all. Still a win given the alternative of doing nothing, which is precisely what most of the World was willing to accept, including most of our so-called allies. Edited May 6 by 73 Reds missed line
changegonnacome Posted May 6 Posted May 6 8 minutes ago, cubsfan said: The Jury is still out on Epic Fury Change! yep but the early reviews are in and they aren't good
73 Reds Posted May 6 Posted May 6 Just now, changegonnacome said: yep but the early reviews are in and they aren't good OK, but consider the "reviewers"!
Parsad Posted May 6 Posted May 6 1 hour ago, 73 Reds said: You are quick to throw blame around. Easy for someone whose survival is not at stake. Newsflash: The US had all the ally (and probably the only one) it needed. No thanks to anyone else willing to be blown up just to save face. Sooner or later you'll thank Trump and Bibi - publicly or otherwise. Not sure what you are talking about! I've made it pretty clear Israel had the right to do what they did...other than unilaterally going into Iran and dragging the U.S. with them. And while you and I agree with the end result with Iran, we certainly disagree on how it was done...and that's because unlike you, I'm not about to solely use outcome to justify Israel's reckless decision! Cheers!
Parsad Posted May 6 Posted May 6 1 hour ago, cubsfan said: Haha! I had no idea. I thought it was being funded by private donations. My bad. But if you can't impeach Powell for being a bozo, then you can't impeach Trumpie either! Sorry bro! Fair enough! My point was that both sides are full of shit! Cheers!
changegonnacome Posted May 6 Posted May 6 51 minutes ago, 73 Reds said: OK, but consider the "reviewers"! As I said the success test is quite simple it goes like this Feb 26th Terms of the Geneva nuclear deal vs. Month xxth Post-Epic Fury nuclear deal What’s the delta on the terms - is it positive or negative, by how much? Right now it appears the nuclear deal on offer has dis-improved. This is not the outcome of a successful military campaign. I acknowledge this can change and things aren’t over. Secondary test is on the SoH….Feb 26th it was uncontested and un-tolled….its future status is currently unclear. We’ll see things can change….but as I said above the clever way out for Trump is the one Iran is offering….SOH re-opens right now and they commit to a moratorium on enrichment and they go back to the negotiating table…the JCPOA took 22 months to put together…no reason why the Trump JCPOA doesn’t exceed the actual time he has left in office i.e. he never signs anything that could be embarrassing and expose Epic Fury’s upside down returns. Right now he’s got his I won incantation no reason for him stop saying that - “their Navy is gone, their Air Force is gone, their drones are gone, their missles factories are gone”
Blake Hampton Posted May 6 Posted May 6 (edited) I just realized something. Everyone is mad because Trump didn't alert our allies before this Iran conflict, but he didn't even notify his own Treasury Secretary. Right before the nomination of a new Fed Chair, one who Bessent planned to negotiate a new "Treasury-Fed Accord" with, Trump went out and started an inflationary war without even telling him. "The war-planning group had been kept so tight that the two key officials who would need to manage the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Energy Secretary Chris Wright, were excluded, as was Tulsi Gabbard, the director of national intelligence." NYT: How Trump Took the U.S. to War With Iran Edited May 6 by Blake Hampton
Blake Hampton Posted May 6 Posted May 6 It's funny I even entertain the arguments of people who would vote for this. This level of incompetence is almost unbelievable.
Mephistopheles Posted May 6 Posted May 6 (edited) This is embarrassing. Think Aileen Cannon on steroids. What a fucking disgrace and of course the cult will perform Olympic Gold Medal level mental gymnastics to justify it. Edited May 6 by Mephistopheles
cubsfan Posted May 6 Posted May 6 9 minutes ago, Blake Hampton said: I just realized something. Everyone is mad because Trump didn't alert our allies before this Iran conflict, but he didn't even notify his own Treasury Secretary. Right before the nomination of a new Fed Chair, one who Bessent planned to negotiate a new "Treasury-Fed Accord" with, Trump went out and started an inflationary war without even telling him. "The war-planning group had been kept so tight that the two key officials who would need to manage the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Energy Secretary Chris Wright, were excluded, as was Tulsi Gabbard, the director of national intelligence." NYT: How Trump Took the U.S. to War With Iran Big deal - these people WORK for the President, he does not work for them. He is the sole decision maker of foreign policy and combat. Everyone else is an advisor.
Blake Hampton Posted May 6 Posted May 6 Just now, cubsfan said: Big deal - these people WORK for the President, he does not work for them. He is the sole decision maker of foreign policy and combat. Everyone else is an advisor. What would Trump have to do to lose your support? Is there anything?
cubsfan Posted May 6 Posted May 6 9 minutes ago, Blake Hampton said: It's funny I even entertain the arguments of people who would vote for this. This level of incompetence is almost unbelievable. It's not as funny as your level of stupidity.
cubsfan Posted May 6 Posted May 6 Just now, Blake Hampton said: What would Trump have to do to lose your support? Is there anything? Easy - all he has to do is NOT do the things he said he would do when he campaigned. That's all.
Blake Hampton Posted May 6 Posted May 6 1 minute ago, cubsfan said: Easy - all he has to do is NOT do the things he said he would do when he campaigned. That's all. ...
cubsfan Posted May 6 Posted May 6 6 minutes ago, Mephistopheles said: This is embarrassing. Think Aileen Cannon on steroids. What a fucking disgrace and of course the cult will perform Olympic Gold Medal level mental gymnastics to justify it. Not nearly as embarrassing as the clown Biden put in the Supreme Court, so-called Justice Jackson. "I can't tell you what a woman is because I am not a biologist" In terms of incompetence and disgrace, nothing will ever beat Ketanji Brown Jackson.
Mephistopheles Posted May 6 Posted May 6 3 minutes ago, cubsfan said: Not nearly as embarrassing as the clown Biden put in the Supreme Court, so-called Justice Jackson. "I can't tell you what a woman is because I am not a biologist" In terms of incompetence and disgrace, nothing will ever beat Ketanji Brown Jackson. Yes! Not nearly as embarrassing as not knowing what the 22nd Amendment is as a ::checks notes:: ...Federal District Judge. Ok, if I tell you that Jackson is a political hack and that the biology answer was bad, will you admit that this was as well?
cubsfan Posted May 6 Posted May 6 Just now, Mephistopheles said: Yes! Not nearly as embarrassing as not knowing what the 22nd Amendment is as a ::checks notes:: ...Federal District Judge. Ok, if I tell you that Jackson is a political hack and that the biology answer was bad, will you admit that this was as well? Yup!
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