Political Posts

[changegonnacome]

1 hour ago, Spekulatius said:

Fed up with the Fed. Could get interesting.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/trump-suggests-fed-renovations-could-235413236.html

 

I think the long end of the yield curve could see some action.

 

Perhaps........latest I heard today is Bessent could be both the Fed Chair AND Treasury Secretary simultaneously....quite the blurring of lines between fiscal and monetary authorities...maybe we get Allen Weisselberg....nows that a loyal guy you could get behind

 

Anyway throw it all in a pot.......and I think with BBB passed, democratic party swings into control of the House next year with a bunch of their stupid giveaways thrown in.....the final destination is pretty clear here.......we are headed for a bout of fiscal dominance.....yield curve control, dollar devaluation, mildly elevated inflation as policy, negative real rates.....there is no political will or even an inkling of consensus that is likely to emerge to allow what needs to happen, happen....raise taxes across the board and cut spending across the board.....

 

I'm rooting for Trump's policies to work and we get an economic boom that sees the US grow at 3%+ real.......its the last roll of the dice to 'fix' things now that the BBB is passed......the math is tough.....the algorithm of growth for the last couple of decades.....has been 1.5% productivity growth and 0.5% working age population growth......Trump immigration policies/deportations plus natural demographics just kneecapped the 0.5% bit......so you better hope these AI models + deregulation deliver serious upsides to productivity

 

When the government that prints the dollar...... is short a few dollars itself......best to be betting with the house and getting short the currency yourself.....cash is going back to being trash very soon (maybe already has if you consider the SXY devalation this year).

[whiskybravo]

6 hours ago, dwy000 said:

When tanking the bond and stock markets becomes the preferred route to divert from the Epstein files you know he's guilty as hell.

Guys listen to Alan Dershowitz 

 

https://www.wsj.com/opinion/the-inside-scoop-on-jeffrey-epstein-b0da1cbe?st=Q4jq8d&reflink=article_copyURL_share

 

 

“Open records show an acquaintance between Epstein and Mr. Trump many years ago. That relationship ended when Mr. Trump reportedly banned Epstein from Mar-a-Lago, long before becoming president. I have seen nothing that would suggest anything improper or even questionable by Mr. Trump.”

 

“Conspiracy stories attract readers, viewers and listeners. They are also fodder for political attacks. The Epstein case has generated more than its share of such theories, and there is nothing more annoying to gossip mongers than when stubborn facts (or the absence of facts) get in the way of a juicy theory. Sorry to disappoint you, but there is really nothing much to see here, beyond what has already been disclosed.”

Edited July 16, 2025 by whiskybravo

[Spekulatius]

6 hours ago, changegonnacome said:

 

Perhaps........latest I heard today is Bessent could be both the Fed Chair AND Treasury Secretary simultaneously....quite the blurring of lines between fiscal and monetary authorities...maybe we get Allen Weisselberg....nows that a loyal guy you could get behind

 

Anyway throw it all in a pot.......and I think with BBB passed, democratic party swings into control of the House next year with a bunch of their stupid giveaways thrown in.....the final destination is pretty clear here.......we are headed for a bout of fiscal dominance.....yield curve control, dollar devaluation, mildly elevated inflation as policy, negative real rates.....there is no political will or even an inkling of consensus that is likely to emerge to allow what needs to happen, happen....raise taxes across the board and cut spending across the board.....

 

I'm rooting for Trump's policies to work and we get an economic boom that sees the US grow at 3%+ real.......its the last roll of the dice to 'fix' things now that the BBB is passed......the math is tough.....the algorithm of growth for the last couple of decades.....has been 1.5% productivity growth and 0.5% working age population growth......Trump immigration policies/deportations plus natural demographics just kneecapped the 0.5% bit......so you better hope these AI models + deregulation deliver serious upsides to productivity

 

When the government that prints the dollar...... is short a few dollars itself......best to be betting with the house and getting short the currency yourself.....cash is going back to being trash very soon (maybe already has if you consider the SXY devalation this year).

I am not sure we are fiscal dominance territory yet. However, I think the emigration policy with both the legal and illegal immigration’s being throttled will cause population shrinkage soon, if it does not already. Thats causing slower growth in the GDP for sure. There are obvious knockdown affects into housing, demographic profile (less babies being born) and other things.

 

When you compare the USA to Europe, about 1% better GDP growth can easily be explained by the higher emigration  in the USA. We need one heck of a productivity spurt to make up for that.

[73 Reds]

11 hours ago, cubsfan said:

 

Things just got exponentially more dangerous for Iran, not the United States.

 

The demented theocracy and military leaders just proved they can't protect their military assets, nuclear assets or their own people. Israel or the US can strike them at will. Let them restart their nuclear program.

 

What will be the result of a restart?  Will Israel kill another dozen of their top nuclear scientists?  Will they kill another 30 of their top military commanders?  Will they kill them in 2 weeks time, with not a single lost airman, plane or soldier - since they can not defend themselves?

 

Who will come running to Iran's defense?  Will the defeated & demoralized proxies rise up against Israel when they know Iran can not defend them from obliteration?

Will the Russians, bogged down by a war that threatens to take down the country come to their aid? What about the Chinese - where were they in the defense of Iran?  The Turks?  The Sunnis?

 

Iran has no friends in the world - and their proxies suffered hellacious destruction fighting JUST Israel.

 

Do you acknowledge that both NATO and the Middle East (less Iranian proxies) are secretly delighted that this worldwide terror nation has suffered such a devastating humiliation - ridding them of a persistent problem of the last 50 years?

 

Trump doesn't need any luck - the very hated and despised Ayatollah needs a lot of luck if he is going to survive this disaster.

Israel has had the correct philosophy all along - don't make lasting agreements with terrorists.  It has taken the US decades to learn that lesson. When you start in a position of strength, issue ultimatums, don't make agreements.  Then be prepared to follow through on those ultimatums.   Shamefully, two of our last three Presidents were not prepared to do so.  Any suggestion that the JCPOA was the answer is woefully wrong - handing Iran massive sums of money and a ticket to nukes was plain stupid.

Edited July 16, 2025 by 73 Reds
words

[Buckeye]

4 hours ago, whiskybravo said:

Guys listen to Alan Dershowitz 

 

https://www.wsj.com/opinion/the-inside-scoop-on-jeffrey-epstein-b0da1cbe?st=Q4jq8d&reflink=article_copyURL_share

 

 

“Open records show an acquaintance between Epstein and Mr. Trump many years ago. That relationship ended when Mr. Trump reportedly banned Epstein from Mar-a-Lago, long before becoming president. I have seen nothing that would suggest anything improper or even questionable by Mr. Trump.”

 

“Conspiracy stories attract readers, viewers and listeners. They are also fodder for political attacks. The Epstein case has generated more than its share of such theories, and there is nothing more annoying to gossip mongers than when stubborn facts (or the absence of facts) get in the way of a juicy theory. Sorry to disappoint you, but there is really nothing much to see here, beyond what has already been disclosed.”

Is this the same Alan Dershowitz who was rumored to have been on the Epstein client list ?!?

 

The article should have been titled “Barber says you need a haircut”

Edited July 16, 2025 by Buckeye

[changegonnacome]

1 hour ago, Spekulatius said:

I am not sure we are fiscal dominance territory yet.

 

Yep agree - but getting ever closer.....Fed chair matters....but the structure of the FOMC committee is such that even if Trump appointed a 0% dovish donkey it would get out-voted.......its why this jawboning of the Fed Chair is so dumb in a way......your not going to get him or the FOMC to change their view on short rates........and all things being equal (because of concerns of central bank independence longer term) your actually pushing up long rates by a few bps.......whats clear is Trump wants a fall guy if/when the economy goes bad.....god forbid its his whole tariff mess......I think one can see the frequency by which Trump brings up Powell as a kind of anxiety meter for Trump.....a very expensive one.....if this jawboning costs even 5bps on long rates, given our debt pile refi needs plus on-going annual needs, Trump is costing the US dearly to keep his Powell scapegoat on ice!

[changegonnacome]

2 hours ago, 73 Reds said:

Any suggestion that the JCPOA was the answer is woefully wrong - handing Iran massive sums of money and a ticket to nukes was plain stupid.

 

Hope your right.....but riddle me this....how do you stop Iran from getting a bomb now if they decide to "go for it"?

[73 Reds]

9 minutes ago, changegonnacome said:

 

Hope your right.....but riddle me this....how do you stop Iran from getting a bomb now if they decide to "go for it"?

Starve them of money and don't make dumb deals.  Then use force if necessary.

[whiskybravo]

1 hour ago, Buckeye said:

Is this the same Alan Dershowitz who was rumored to have been on the Epstein client list ?!?

 

The article should have been titled “Barber says you need a haircut”

 

 

“Open your ears; for which of you will stop

The vent of hearing when loud Rumour speaks“

Btw, did you see Garret Wilson got paid, noice!

[changegonnacome]

Just now, 73 Reds said:

Starve them of money

 

Yeah cause sanctions are working so well against Russia as Putin run's rings around Donald.....China is Iran's sugar daddy....and they are't turning off the RMB taps anytime soon.

 

As I've said across a few pages now.....since Trump took the bait from Bibi and sucked the US into a bilateral attack instead of cauterizing the Iran nuclear problem with a JCPOA v2....we are on a slippy slope here to escalating US military commitments.......Iran will simply take its nuke program deeper underground now......they've got the B-2 bunker buster benchmark now....if it got 50ft down....Iran goes 100ft down with its Manhattan project....then what do you do exactly?

 

Finally I would say that Trump has really made a dogs dinner of the Ukraine-Russia situation.....politically speaking....all this boy who cried wolf stuff on ceasefires and peace with Putin because they had love-ins on the phone...... followed now by all this 50 Day ultimatum stuff with Donald signing off on more weapons.....I'm very surprised that Trump who is usually quite shrewd in deflecting responsibility away from himself has so meaningfully owned this Ukraine-Russia war......it was always going to end up his but his mismanagement of expectations once he got into office (vs. electioneering puffery) around the probability of a negotiated settlement was a gross political miscalculation.....which shows how deeply Putin, I think, had tricked him in phone calls leading up to the election and after he got elected.

 

Regardless you can come back to this post in a couple of months or years.......but mark my words........Ukraine is shaping up to Donald's Biden/Afghanistan moment....a deeply embarrassing loss of face for the United States on the world stage....cause it looks to me like during Donald's term that Ukraine's frontline will collapse and Putin will be dictating terms to Donald/Zelensky.

 

Bibi, the political genius that he is is most likely waiting for this outcome in Ukraine, at which point a moment of Trumpian embarrassment & perceived weakness at presiding over Russia's victory in a proxy war against the US in Ukraine.....will be parlayed into deeper, more extensive and more affirmative US action against Iran.

 

I dont think folks realize how dangerous the world has gotten in the last 4-5yrs....and how that has only ramped up in the last 4-5 weeks.

 

[gfp]

"Trump Likely to Fire Powell Soon" - white house says...

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-07-16/trump-likely-to-fire-powell-soon-white-house-official-says?srnd=homepage-americas

Edited July 16, 2025 by gfp

[changegonnacome]

19 minutes ago, gfp said:

Trump Likely to Fire Powell Soon

 

what a moron....he is literally punching himself in the face.....guess in his first term when his inner circle plus congressional republicans had the balls to tell him how moronic his ideas were, we got 'Trump-lite'.......this time.....we're getting full fat, full sugar Trump.....turns out its not good for you!

Edited July 16, 2025 by changegonnacome
.

[gfp]

I'm not worried at all about lower overnight interest rates causing some problem.  I think it will solve some problems.  But it is best to just be patient and not call into question the independence of the Federal Reserve.  The Fed is a "confidence game" - you need perceived independence and credibility because their tools don't work like they used to.  Credibility and the ability to backstop and put out fires in a specific crisis is all they have.

[backtothebeach]

27 minutes ago, gfp said:

"Trump Likely to Fire Powell Soon" - white house says...

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-07-16/trump-likely-to-fire-powell-soon-white-house-official-says?srnd=homepage-americas

Time to buy TLT (at $84.53) on what is probably a false alarm? 

[gfp]

3 minutes ago, backtothebeach said:

Time to buy TLT (at $84.53) on what is probably a false alarm? 

 

I can't do my 5% trade again because I don't have a stitch of cash until August 19th...  Maybe the new better version of that trade is to buy the 2 year every time it trades with a 4-handle if POTUS is determined to run it hot.  I'm getting less bearish on the economy by the day...

 

edit:

 

"no zeros omitted" ...  LOL

Edited July 16, 2025 by gfp

[cubsfan]

6 minutes ago, gfp said:

I'm not worried at all about lower overnight interest rates causing some problem.  I think it will solve some problems.  But it is best to just be patient and not call into question the independence of the Federal Reserve.  The Fed is a "confidence game" - you need perceived independence and credibility because their tools don't work like they used to.  Credibility and the ability to backstop and put out fires in a specific crisis is all they have.

 

Yeah, totally agree. But I really wonder if the Fed is independent and non-partisan.

[gfp]

1 minute ago, cubsfan said:

 

Yeah, totally agree. But I really wonder if the Fed is independent and non-partisan.

 

Well he ain't a democrat.  You can disagree with POTUS about your responsibility to do what you *think* is best and still be a Republican or non-partisan.  Everyone who disagrees with Powell will assign some motive but I think Buffett is right - he's just doing what he thinks is best.  I disagree with him sometimes but what is new.

[changegonnacome]

4 minutes ago, gfp said:

The Fed is a "confidence game"

 

a confidence game, on top of which long end treasury rates are set in the free market..........one of the many jobs of the President of the United States is to ensure the WACC of the US (to use investing parlance) is as low as it can be........if Trump was CEO of JP Morgan where the WACC really matters and he was pulling stunts like this that drove up funding costs for the bank the board would fire him in a heartbeat.

[gfp]

Just now, changegonnacome said:

 

a confidence game, on top of which long end treasury rates are set in the free market..........one of the many jobs of the President of the United States is to ensure the WACC of the US (to use investing parlance) is as low as it can be........if Trump was CEO of JP Morgan where the WACC really matters and he was pulling stunts like this that drove up funding costs for the bank the board would fire him in a heartbeat.

 

I agree with you that it is damaging to destroy perceived credibility but there is zero reason the Federal Government needs to borrow anything at the long end of the curve - other than historical precedent and the demand in the market for liquid benchmark securities at a few key maturities.

 

For years, Germany didn't "borrow enough" to supply the Eurozone with enough high quality collateral.  One of the many reasons the Euro denomination will never function as a global "reserve currency."  (A "reserve currency" isn't even an actual currency, just a unit of account - like saying the metric system is the reserve currency)

[gfp]

"Trump denies" ... "highly unlikely" -

 

You do get the impression that they just put out a statement to see the market reaction, someone wins the argument they were having (it won't help you with long rates, it will probably hurt you) and they go on with their conversation with that debate settled.

[changegonnacome]

24 minutes ago, gfp said:

there is zero reason the Federal Government needs to borrow anything at the long end of the curve - other than historical precedent and the demand in the market for liquid benchmark securities at a few key maturities.

 

Ok but you assume somehow that the Chair can make other committee members vote a certain way...sure the Chairs voice matters a lot...they build consensus etc.......but its the FOMC committee for a reason....Trump scratching his Powell itch in public doesn't change short rates IMO...firing him doesn't either....in fact the remaining committee members are likely to double down on their independence.....which at the margins I think bends towards the FOMC having a slight bias towards NOT cutting rates as a public demonstration & affirmation of their independence.

 

and of course Trump's own position on what Powell should do with rates is contradictory.....the "economy is the best we ever had" "inflation is non-existent" "full employment".......so what exactly is the case for rates being too high? Sounds like rates are exactly where they need to be on Trump's own accounting?

 

So if you cant change short rates (as per the above re:FOMC committee).....and in doing so you push up long rates and undermine the dollar.....you can see why I class this hot air from Trump on Powell as counterproductive and in fact moronic. Explain to me how I'm wrong?

 

 

Edited July 16, 2025 by changegonnacome

[gfp]

Maybe Trump is actually smarter than we think and he believes pouring highly regressive fiscal stimulus into the economy (but primarily to recipients like Berkshire and JPM, not evenly) is the bigger policy error.

 

Lower interest costs, lower the deficit, reduce regressive stimulus, lower inflation, rocketshipemoji

[gfp]

 

"I was surprised he was appointed"    You can't make this shit up!  Endless entertainment

 

 

 

 

[73 Reds]

1 hour ago, changegonnacome said:

 

Yeah cause sanctions are working so well against Russia as Putin run's rings around Donald.....China is Iran's sugar daddy....and they are't turning off the RMB taps anytime soon.

 

As I've said across a few pages now.....since Trump took the bait from Bibi and sucked the US into a bilateral attack instead of cauterizing the Iran nuclear problem with a JCPOA v2....we are on a slippy slope here to escalating US military commitments.......Iran will simply take its nuke program deeper underground now......they've got the B-2 bunker buster benchmark now....if it got 50ft down....Iran goes 100ft down with its Manhattan project....then what do you do exactly?

 

Finally I would say that Trump has really made a dogs dinner of the Ukraine-Russia situation.....politically speaking....all this boy who cried wolf stuff on ceasefires and peace with Putin because they had love-ins on the phone...... followed now by all this 50 Day ultimatum stuff with Donald signing off on more weapons.....I'm very surprised that Trump who is usually quite shrewd in deflecting responsibility away from himself has so meaningfully owned this Ukraine-Russia war......it was always going to end up his but his mismanagement of expectations once he got into office (vs. electioneering puffery) around the probability of a negotiated settlement was a gross political miscalculation.....which shows how deeply Putin, I think, had tricked him in phone calls leading up to the election and after he got elected.

 

Regardless you can come back to this post in a couple of months or years.......but mark my words........Ukraine is shaping up to Donald's Biden/Afghanistan moment....a deeply embarrassing loss of face for the United States on the world stage....cause it looks to me like during Donald's term that Ukraine's frontline will collapse and Putin will be dictating terms to Donald/Zelensky.

 

Bibi, the political genius that he is is most likely waiting for this outcome in Ukraine, at which point a moment of Trumpian embarrassment & perceived weakness at presiding over Russia's victory in a proxy war against the US in Ukraine.....will be parlayed into deeper, more extensive and more affirmative US action against Iran.

 

I dont think folks realize how dangerous the world has gotten in the last 4-5yrs....and how that has only ramped up in the last 4-5 weeks.

 

Not sure why you insist on conflating issues.  We gave Iran a lot of money and just because China continues to do so doesn't mean we should follow suit or do anything in support of a terrorist regime.  

[changegonnacome]

3 minutes ago, 73 Reds said:

We gave Iran a lot of money

 

Did we? How can you give to somebody something that is already theirs? Another MAGA misunderstanding I fear.

 

All thats ever been given to Iran by the United States is assets/cash belonging to them that were frozen in foreign bank accounts using our global clout and leverage. The net cost of transfers from the US taxpayer to Iran remains at $0.00....we've given Israel a lot money but thats been discussed before.......but in return for unfreezing the Iranian's asset we got to put a major problem on ICE......the story I'm telling here (which may be wrong of course) is that we won't believe how cheap it was to give $0.00 to the Iranian's to put this headache to bed when the actual bill for putting it to bed a different way arrives.....we are likely hundreds of millions if not a billion or two deep in paying for that solution right now.

 

8 minutes ago, 73 Reds said:

on conflating issues

 

Yes your right I did lob Ukraine-Russia cause it so damn obvious....that like Iran.....Trump is mismanaging the foreign relations portfolio.....in his defense, what I would say, is that to a certain extent the final destination for the Ukraine-Russia conflict (Ukrainian collapse) was locked in a box when Sleepy Joe Biden egged on by Boris 'shopping trolley' Johnson refused the Istanbul peace talk off ramp and further still later didn't seek peace after the re-taking of Kharkiv and Kherson which was the high water mark of the Ukrainian counteroffensive.