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Ackman's Presentation on KFT


farnamstreet
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I think Ackman and Buffett can both be right...it just a question of timing.

 

Buffett paid, IIRC, about $34 a few years ago for Kraft...he's being diluted and watching Kraft pay a relatively high price.  It's not like he can really "double down" now that the stock has dropped.

 

Those buying now are paying a lot less than Buffett and many years after his purchase -- adjusted price might be 30% less  if you figure opportunity cost for Buffett -- and they're not having to pay for the dilution...that's now baked into the Kraft price.

 

Ackman does a good presentation and I suspect Kraft is a steal here for such a good company in a great industry. 

 

Then again, maybe there is a further, business related reason, that Buffett hates this deal and doesn't think it will work out going forward...but he was more than happy to let P&G pay 30x earnings for Gillette and more than happy to help finance the Mars buyout of Wrigley at 30x.

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Maybe Buffett, just like he wanted a railroad, wanted Mars Inc. in NJ.

 

The Cadbury deal may present a challenge to a lifelong dream.

 

Keep in mind that BH owns some debt with this company. 

 

Don't know Mars owners too well, but I understand they are a strange brew.  Maybe they would sell one day.

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kft would be worth more in a few years keeping pizza and buying back it's stock with the capital it would have used to buy Cadbury.

Moreover, mergers introduce costs and inefficiencies too (at least in the short run). I have been involved in a few at a much smaller level and teams - processes - technologies could not be merged that easily. Ackman brings up the positive points but I believe he is slightly too optimistic on the results of the merger, at least in the next 2 years. My personal valuation would be closer the the low 40's.

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