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Coronavirus Survey


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I wanted to create a survey to get a sense on what assumptions the market may be pricing into the market. For the purpose of this survey, I'm using the US only to focus on one geography.


When do you think that coronavirus is effectively contained (growth of less than 10 cases per day in the US)?

A) around the end of April 2020 (sometime in Q2 2020).

B) around the end of July 2020 (sometime in Q3 2020).

C) around the end of October 2020 (sometime in Q4 2020).

D) 2021.

E) 2022 or after.


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I don't think the number of cases matters, any more so than the flu. What matters is how soon the relevant data becomes clear, because right now it isn't and all we are going off of was the apocalyptic origins and folklore from Wuhan, where zombies were crawling into hospitals, tripping over carcasses, reports of hundreds of thousands of zombie bodies being incinerated.


Getting more clarity on a real fatality rate will help. People are blatantly missing the obvious fact that the absolute worst case fatality rate, is the deaths/confirmed cases number when in reality its death/confirmed+many unconfirmed cases. Getting an idea about recovery periods, will help. Continuing to see economic trends will help. I was again doing some errands and dropped by a few popular shopping centers today, and granted it was a gorgeous pre spring day, but the places were a zoo. No indication at all of people changing their behaviors.


Personally, I think this is just another thing that will become part of everyday life. We'll be living with it as it isn't going away anytime soon, but it also isn't the end of the world either. In fact, the only time I really even notice anything about this, is during market hours. Otherwise its entirely life as usual. The market reactions really just occur when the dorks cant whip out their TI-83s or Excel sheets and forecast some type of model which happens to be the case here. Obviously travel will get hurt, as well as big city hospitality, but for the most part, I dont expect some seismic shift in how people live their lives.

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