Thought exercise: what will it take for AMZN, MSFT, GOOG, AAPL,FB to be 50% high

[shalab]

Let us do the Charlie Munger exercise in reverse (same as Bernoulli method), when and what will it take for these companies to be 50% higher than they are today.

 

AMZN: 1500, market cap - 714 billion

MSFT: 109, market cap - 850 billion

FB: 240, market cap - 800 billion

GOOG: 1400, market cap - 1 trillion

AAPL: 220, market cap - 1.2 trillion

 

[Vish_ram]

What -> revenue, earnings and cash flow growth accompanied by continued innovation

When -> Time

[Jurgis]

What -> revenue, earnings and cash flow growth accompanied by continued innovation

When -> Time

 

I'll +1 this.

 

However, OP should be asking two different questions: what it will take the market cap of XXX be higher 50% and what it will take the stock price of XXX to be higher 50%. The answers to these are not the same (hint: think stock buybacks for example).

[Travis Wiedower]

Nothing is guaranteed, but all have a very high probability of getting there eventually so I'll say +2 to time.