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Great investors of this decade (2010+)


shalab
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The results have varied for the Big Short guys. I think by definition for you to have outsized returns from that episode, you need to make a concentrated bet on something that was inherently a high probability bet. It takes a certain kind of personality to pull off that trade - John Paulson has struggled since 2009, Steve Eisman launched a fund and shut it down, the Cornwall guys seem to do well, Michael Burry seems to be doing well. It's a mixed bag.

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The title says since 2010+ but you named the last decade. I don't think anyone can be deemed a great investor from 2010 through today because we haven't had a bear market. I'd also be surprised if a few of those guys have beaten the market from 2006-2016 or 2010-2016. I'd be very surprised if the first two after Burry or last named have since 2010.

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The people involved in betting against sub-prime don't count. While their actions were clearly insightful and well-informed, they were none the less speculative. Anyway, as others have pointed out, many of those folks have under-performed the market since.

 

If you're analysing performance over the decade of 2010-2019, then for the period so far, you'd probably have Warren as the benchmark. Berkshire have returned about 13-14% in the period by my rough calculations. Prem Watsa and Fairfax would be in that range too, the figure would be less if you're converting to US Dollars. I have no idea what Pabrai has done in the 10's, but I would suspect the performance is much worse - he's lost money in the last 2 years, right? I have been impressed with Patient Capital Management run by Vito Maida. He doesn't have the out performance that is sexy to a lot of investors, but he was one of the few to side-step the Financial Crisis. It's remarkable despite all the disadvantages that Berkshire have, they still manage to beat most of investors.

 

One investor who I have never seen mentioned on here who has outperformed most in the last year is Terry Smith in the Fundsmith team. His fund is coming up to 6 years in operation now and has blown the doors off with a 17.6% CAGR.

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I think picking a specific period is arbitrary. 

 

- If you go solely by 2010-2015, then we haven't beaten the market. 

- Add one year...2009-2015 and we have beaten the market and are on par with the best investors. 

- Look at 2006 to 2015 and we are in the top 1%. 

 

But our numbers don't matter because no one gives a flying fig about our long-term results.  They really only care about shorter term periods or recent history.

 

Many of the managers who started when we did are no longer in the business.  We keep plugging away slowly like Francis did 20 years ago.  So much capital in the wrong hands and we can barely get a speck of sand on a huge beach!  Cheers! 

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I think picking a specific period is arbitrary. 

 

- If you go solely by 2010-2015, then we haven't beaten the market. 

- Add one year...2009-2015 and we have beaten the market and are on par with the best investors. 

- Look at 2006 to 2015 and we are in the top 1%. 

 

But our numbers don't matter because no one gives a flying fig about our long-term results.  They really only care about shorter term periods or recent history.

 

Many of the managers who started when we did are no longer in the business.  We keep plugging away slowly like Francis did 20 years ago.  So much capital in the wrong hands and we can barely get a speck of sand on a huge beach!  Cheers! 

Agreed.

 

If don't mind my asking, what was your result from '06 to now or '09 to now?  Cause I do care more than a few figs about the long term!

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Sanjeev has not rolled the fund into PDH yet. It will happen in time but right now its a totally seperate vehicle however I bet the stock selection will be similar between PDH and MPIC.

 

 

Sanj,

 

Perhaps a stupid question, but I thought you folded the funds into PDH near the end of 2014? If so, how do you come up with the 2015 numbers? thanks!

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Sanjeev has not rolled the fund into PDH yet. It will happen in time but right now its a totally seperate vehicle however I bet the stock selection will be similar between PDH and MPIC.

 

 

Sanj,

 

Perhaps a stupid question, but I thought you folded the funds into PDH near the end of 2014? If so, how do you come up with the 2015 numbers? thanks!

 

that would make sense then. I haven't kept much track of things lately it looks like. Thanks, our.

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