Anyone have any idea why Italian stock returns have been low since 2004?

[LongHaul]

Anyone have any idea why Italian stock returns have been low since 2004?

 

I think these yearly returns are only price and may not include dividends.

http://www.1stock1.com/1stock1_804.htm

[morningstar]

To start with, Italy's real GDP is down several percent over that period.

[Poor Charlie]

Italian securities (bonds and stocks) have always been poor performers. 

 

TSR in real terms since -

 

1965

Equities: 1.3%

Bonds:  3.3%

 

1900

Equities: 1.9%

Bonds:  (1.2%)

 

Source - https://publications.credit-suisse.com/tasks/render/file/?fileID=AE924F44-E396-A4E5-11E63B09CFE37CCB  page 46

[Jurgis]

Exor should switch listing asap.

[eclecticvalue]

Exor should switch listing asap.

 

That would close the discount and I think the company would get a premium valuation in-line with the conglomerates.

[plato1976]

why should a conglomerate gets a premium

I think they usually trade at a discount (though not as big as exor) except some rare exceptions like Berkshire (for a reason)

 

Exor should switch listing asap.

 

That would close the discount and I think the company would get a premium valuation in-line with the conglomerates.

[LongHaul]

Italian securities (bonds and stocks) have always been poor performers. 

 

TSR in real terms since -

 

1965

Equities: 1.3%

Bonds:  3.3%

 

1900

Equities: 1.9%

Bonds:  (1.2%)

 

Source - https://publications.credit-suisse.com/tasks/render/file/?fileID=AE924F44-E396-A4E5-11E63B09CFE37CCB  page 46

 

Thanks for the data Poor Charlie.

 

Even Spain did 4.7% real equity returns from 1965 - 2014. 

 

I have a few random thoughts on this.

 

1.  Perhaps the Italian Indexes were dominated by weaker businesses - ie banks, etc.

2.  Higher Inflation

3.  High corruption

 

I really don't know though.  If anyone has any other thoughts as to underlying causality feel free to brainstorm.  I think it is worth studying.

 

 

 

 

[matjone]

I was curious about this as well.  I can't get that document on Italian stock returns to load.  Those are total returns aren't they?

 

Maybe Gio will chime in with some explanation. 

 

Wikipedia entry - https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_history_of_Italy