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Brokered Convention?


Sharad
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I'm just wondering if anybody thinks we may possibly see a brokered Republican convention and a compromise candidate emerge (Paul Ryan, Asa Hutchinson, etc.). I just have a sneaking suspicion that there will be 3-4 candidates fighting to the convention, and none of them will back down. Based on the hard lines many candidates have taken, maybe this would be the only possibility of the Republicans winning an election against a very polarizing Democratic candidate. We're only a few weeks away from the Iowa caucus, and I just have a sneaking suspicion that this will be the one to produce some chaos for the Republican party convention.

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i have read that "superdelegates" are a democratic but not republican party thing.  if so then i think it is quite possible that there will be no republican nominee come convention. trump will love the deal making certainly.  only way to avoid seems to me is if everyone not named trump or cruz solidifies on a single guy, and i dont see bush and rubio agreeing on who that guy should be.  ;)

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I hope for this and hope that the compromise candidate is currently relatively obscure on the national stage.

 

where is al haig when you need him...

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brokered convention? how about a brokered election if bloomie runs as independent?

 

Pursuant to the Twelfth Amendment, the House of Representatives is required to go into session immediately to vote for president if no candidate for president receives a majority of the electoral votes (since 1964, 270 of the 538 electoral votes)

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While it is certainly possible that no candidate will have locked up the delegate count prior to the convention, it is very remote that anyone other than one of the top tier candidates would be chosen.  I can guarantee that neither Paul or Hutchison would be selected.  Paul lacks support now and most people have no clue who Hutchison is.  Further, it is not like there is someone on the sidelines that everyone loves but did not choose to run. Anyone who mentions Romney clearly does not remember the lack of enthusiasm for him.  So it would be most likely that the first or second place candidate would offer something to candidate #3 such as the Vice Presidency. 

 

The way delegates are awarded (some winner take all states, and thresholds in order to earn delegates) should result in only two or three candidates having a meaningful number at the end.     

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brokered convention? how about a brokered election if bloomie runs as independent?

 

Pursuant to the Twelfth Amendment, the House of Representatives is required to go into session immediately to vote for president if no candidate for president receives a majority of the electoral votes (since 1964, 270 of the 538 electoral votes)

 

You have definitely identified a Black Swan if I have ever seen one...now, I presume it will become more of a possible talking point, if (a) Bloomberg jumps into the race and (b) either Sanders or Trump/Cruz win their party's candidacy. This will get even more interesting than when I mentioned Brokered Convention a few days ago...how quickly things change...

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if bloomie runs, then i dont see any candidate getting a majority of electoral votes.

 

black swan alert=2/3 quorum in house to elect....suppose dem states dont show up. no quorum=no president. 12th A needs to be respected

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if bloomie runs, then i dont see any candidate getting a majority of electoral votes.

 

black swan alert=2/3 quorum in house to elect....suppose dem states dont show up. no quorum=no president. 12th A needs to be respected

 

Last I saw, Republicans in the House are the majority in 34 states to 14 Democratic Party states, with two split.  Even if they picked up the majority representation in a few states to prevent a quorum, Democrats would look bad preventing a vote.  The Senate would choose the VP from the top two in the Electoral College votes for VP (while the House chooses the President from the top 3).  If the Senate flips back Democrat they could choose a Democrat VP, while a Republican House chooses a Republican President.   

 

By the way, in 1992 Perot received 19% of overall vote.  He won zero states (thus receiving 0 electoral Votes) and finished second in only two.  Barring Trump blowing up, it is doubtful that Bloomberg would win a red state due to his positions on gun control and social issues.  He would primarily draw some independents and Democrats.  I saw a recent poll that showed him at 13%, Clinton 36% and Trump 37%.  The same poll had Clinton ahead of Trump in a two way race.  Of course that could change as they campaigned and debated, or if Sanders is the nominee for Democrats.  More importantly it is state by state results that matter but I have seen no public polls at the state level with Bloomberg in the race. 

 

In other words, it is doubtful that Bloomberg would significantly impact the Electoral College outcome, unless he can win states that would have otherwise gone Democrat.  But hey all this is quite fluid which makes it fun to watch and speculate about.

 

       

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