maxthetrade Posted October 27, 2009 Posted October 27, 2009 Well this certainly doesn't sound like a hard market: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=anmDlJwFO7NA
Estimated Profit Posted October 27, 2009 Posted October 27, 2009 My apologies everybody. My flair for the dramatic seems to have offended the sensibilities of everyone that has a flair for accuracy. SD got it best when he wrote: Even we don't think we'll see .6x BV, but we see the argument. My point is that FFH has traded at wonderful discounts in the not so distant past and in all likelihood will do so again in the future. Here is my official stance. 1.) Hold a permanent long position 2.) Have a trading position which you buy when you feel FFH is trading at a discount to book and wait for 1/4ly numbers for it to adjust back to book value. Taking a position that is speculative waiting for multiple expansion isn't wise in my opinion. That's it. Cheers. ;)
goldfinger Posted October 27, 2009 Posted October 27, 2009 My point is that FFH has traded at wonderful discounts in the not so distant past and in all likelihood will do so again in the future. Hopefully not as it was the result of major mistakes that we all hope they have learned from by now...
ubuy2wron Posted October 28, 2009 Posted October 28, 2009 I do not have a clue if MR. Mkt will attach a greater or lesser value to FFH earnings and BV going forward however I am starting to see a trend developing where the clubby group of FFH long-term shareholders is starting to be replaced by shareholders who might be willing to pay a higher relative price for the stock. Lets face it we are collectively far to cheap to ever pay a premium price for our beloved FFH. I also suspect given the increase in liquidity that has been orchestrated by Prem you may find yourself competing with FFH itself if the shares became cheap for any reason in the immediate future.
Guest Dazel Posted October 28, 2009 Posted October 28, 2009 Simple math. ORH has been priced out at $3.8 billion...some were trying to stop the deal beacuse they said it undervalued ORH. FFH market cap is $6 billion... So Mr.market is telling me that they stole ORH at $3.8b The remainder of FFH is worth $2.2 billion? So you are getting all of this for $2.2 billion! Fairfax holding company (they are now loaded with cash and marketable securities Northbridge Crum &Forester ICICI runoff (full of investments) Sounds a bit crazy doesn't it? Prem did not have the dry powder in prior years to be creative..we expect a premium not a discount... Dazel.
valuecfa Posted October 28, 2009 Posted October 28, 2009 Simple math. ORH has been priced out at $3.8 billion...some were trying to stop the deal beacuse they said it undervalued ORH. FFH market cap is $6 billion... So Mr.market is telling me that they stole ORH at $3.8b The remainder of FFH is worth $2.2 billion? So you are getting all of this for $2.2 billion! Fairfax holding company (they are now loaded with cash and marketable securities Northbridge Crum &Forester ICICI runoff (full of investments) Sounds a bit crazy doesn't it? Prem did not have the dry powder in prior years to be creative..we expect a premium not a discount... Dazel. The market cap is $7 Billion, not $6 Billion.
FFHWatcher Posted October 28, 2009 Posted October 28, 2009 Yahoo Finance still shows the mkt cap as $6B but that obviously hasn't been updated with the $1B share issuance of 2.9M shares. $6B + $1B = $7B. New shares o/s after share issuance related to ORH = 19.687M Current share price (US$) = $345 (2.9M share issuance was at $347) Mkt Value = $6.792B
valuecfa Posted October 28, 2009 Posted October 28, 2009 Yahoo Finance still shows the mkt cap as $6B but that obviously hasn't been updated with the $1B share issuance of 2.9M shares. $6B + $1B = $7B. New shares o/s after share issuance related to ORH = 19.687M Current share price (US$) = $345 (2.9M share issuance was at $347) Mkt Value = $6.792B At June 30, 2009 there were 17,443,784 shares effectively outstanding. An additional 2,881,844 subordinate voting shares were issued in the previously announced offering, totalling 20,325,628 shares (assuming no equity grants/options exercised/share repurchases since June 30.) At $345/share the market capitalization would be US $7,012,341,660. Yahoo Finance quite frequently has misleading figures.
Guest Dazel Posted October 28, 2009 Posted October 28, 2009 Sorry boys I have not not done the sum of the parts for awhile (google finance!) ...If you were to back out Fairfax holding cash you would be in the $6 billion range...We also believe they will be dividending up a lot of cash from the operating companies because they are all over capitalized. They will not ever be in the position they were from 2001-2006. We are splitting hairs here now. Everyone has their thesis and that is what is important. Good luck to all. Dazel.
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