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Klarman- Neither bullish or bearish just Value-ish


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One way to fix his problem is to release his annual letters for everyone to read, instead of restricting circulation then whining that the media got it wrong.  Do they ever get it right?

 

Agreed. Things are either public or not these days. Things aren't half-public, and if they are, then you should expect people to get things wrong.

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Klarman was quite bearish a couple years ago - yes, even when you read his entire letters. He alluded to his feelings about the system crashing and a bunch of other things.

 

Seems so odd to single out bloggers given that he was pretty unequivocal about that stuff.

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I think it's like we all worry about various scenarios occurring but we should act differently and hopefully based on more rational, or maybe I should say, more historically based future expectations.  In my opinion, extreme scenarios to the positive or negative though are always worth thinking about and reading about so that should the world move closer towards one scenario or the other, one has already done a bit of thinking about the range of potential outcomes.

 

As such I seek out such pessimistic concerns like Klarman was stating a couple years ago, circulated Warren Buffett's WMD article in my former place of employment, took a serious note of Prem Watsa's "perfect storm" comments in his 2002 letter, collected doom and gloom articles on the US housing and credit conditions in the mid 2000s, etc.

 

Additionally, to temper one's own views I think it was in Fooled by Randomness that the author mentioned how people generally have a too positive outlook and don't realize the frequency that bad things like war etc occur within an investing lifetime.

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