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Fantasy Football


sethatk
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I recently had a discussion with a friend who like many of my peers/coworkers is an avid participant in Fantasy Football. He was telling me how he could not learn, or did not have the aptitude for investing. I explained to him that he already does extensive in depth research on numerous athletes and investing is very similar,  swap athletes for companies and you stand a good chance of becoming wealthy.  Anyone had similar conversations?

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I agree. There are a lot of similarities between investing and fantasy sports. In both you are basically looking for mispriced bets. In fantasy sports these "bets" are cheap players that are misperceived by others.

 

There are some psychological effects that apply to both areas as well. For example: I think most people probably trade players too much, just like they trade their stocks too much. They tend to become impatient when a player underperforms and not realize his performance could regress to the mean. If the market value of the underperforming player drops this also means they are buying high and selling low.

 

I used to play Fantasy Premier League, but I was not very good at it. I'd perhaps finish somewhere in the top third of the rankings at the end of the season, but never managed to get a great ranking. I looked at past performances of some top ranking players and there are players who finish in the top 100,000 players out of 3 million+ total players year after year. No idea how they do this exactly, but it requires a lot of knowledge about the players and the scoring rules of the game. There are also commercial websites that can help you find bargains, perhaps they can be compared to stock screeners.

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All fantasy sports players love the game. Your friend may need to love investing to be successful. So he may be right in that he doesn't have what it takes to do it himself. Or, he may have it and need someone to show him where to start like you seem to be.

 

Looking at sports stats is different than drilling down on a 10K. I'd say fantasy sports is like looking at ratios and the quick run down on Morningstar.

But I agree there are similarities.

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Agree,  that he would have to love investing as much to be successful. I find it impressive how much knowledge he has about players, teams, and other variables pertaining to fantasy. Maybe I would just like to put that research talent to a more profitable use!

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Agree,  that he would have to love investing as much to be successful. I find it impressive how much knowledge he has about players, teams, and other variables pertaining to fantasy. Maybe I would just like to put that research talent to a more profitable use!

 

The more I thought about it I realized some of these fantasy players may very well go as in depth as we do in K's and Q's.

My roomate in college was a fanatic. Sunday's he was up at 8 watching pre game shows until the 1PM games started and didn't move from his recliner until the night game was over.  ~16 hours in front of the TV.

I guess that could be considered research.  ;D

He played fantasy pools too.

 

And yes, I had my own TV in my room.

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I worked next to someone who was very into fantasy sports but wasn't that into investing. But I could tell by the amount of analytical thought he put into his hobby he would be a great investor. So I mentioned it to him, "Hey, if you are going to spend hours and hours each week outsmarting people, why not try stocks which could also make you financially independent?" He did try and he is very very good at it. Whenever you see someone enjoying a hobby with deep analysis that involves probabilities and handicapping, chances are they will be decent investors. If they have the right emotional temperament that is.

 

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To an extent maybe. I agree with others that you have to have a knack for wanting to invest. There's a huge difference between sitting down and watching 8 hours of football on Sunday and sitting down and reading 8 hours of 10-K's and 10-Q's. I think the best overlap between my investing skills and fantasy football skills is drafting. My league does an auction for players, so it's fun to try and find mispriced players going for lower than comparable players.

 

Granted my team is only 4-3 this year.  :-[

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To an extent maybe. I agree with others that you have to have a knack for wanting to invest. There's a huge difference between sitting down and watching 8 hours of football on Sunday and sitting down and reading 8 hours of 10-K's and 10-Q's. I think the best overlap between my investing skills and fantasy football skills is drafting. My league does an auction for players, so it's fun to try and find mispriced players going for lower than comparable players.

 

Granted my team is only 4-3 this year.  :-[

 

I think fantasy football is like porker. A lot of luck (injury, opponents...), but skill definitely matters. From what I saw from my league, people routinely over value super star players. I play in a standard league and most of the "draft guide" suggested RB over QB in the first round, which makes no sense to me. I'm 3-3 and hopefully will be 4-3 tonight. But I got the highest score in the league and a guy had the second lowest score is 6-1 :(

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