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No credentialed Bears available for AGM


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Guest longinvestor

http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2014/04/23/buffett-cant-find-bear-for-berkshire-annual-meeting/?mod=yahoo_hs

 

WEB is truly looking for blindsides and it is telling that not a single bear is available. I was hoping someone would show up to help me think about risks I don't know of. Looks like Doug Kass has not been invited back. I thought that Doug's questions last year were mostly without substance and was even silly.

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http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2014/04/23/buffett-cant-find-bear-for-berkshire-annual-meeting/?mod=yahoo_hs

 

WEB is truly looking for blindsides and it is telling that not a single bear is available. I was hoping someone would show up to help me think about risks I don't know of. Looks like Doug Kass has not been invited back. I thought that Doug's questions last year were mostly without substance and was even silly.

 

Well, Doug used that as a platform to ask Berkshire to give him money to run a short book for them -- so I'm guessing that probably didn't endear him to Buffett and Munger.

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Maybe a mismatch of perceptions?  Is Buffett looking for someone who actively thinks the stock is overvalued and should be shorted?  I'm guessing there aren't many vocal holders out there who think that.

 

What I think does exist is a large contingency who have some serious questions about the company and its viability post-Buffett.  The problem is these aren't bears, maybe long term skeptics.  Personally I see no reason why the company shouldn't earn market returns, but will they be able to earn above that?  I doubt it over the next 5-10 years, they're simply too big.  Does this make me a bear?  No, I just see opportunity in other companies.  If BRK were to fall significantly in a downturn I'd be buying, why not?

 

I do wonder about 20 years out from Buffett.  I personally don't think the empire he's created will stay together for generations.  Conglomerates never do, and for how hands-off Buffett is he's still the magic formula that makes his creation work.  There are a lot of managers who like working for him, how many will like working for his successor's successor?

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http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2014/04/23/buffett-cant-find-bear-for-berkshire-annual-meeting/?mod=yahoo_hs

 

WEB is truly looking for blindsides and it is telling that not a single bear is available. I was hoping someone would show up to help me think about risks I don't know of. Looks like Doug Kass has not been invited back. I thought that Doug's questions last year were mostly without substance and was even silly.

 

Well, Doug used that as a platform to ask Berkshire to give him money to run a short book for them -- so I'm guessing that probably didn't endear him to Buffett and Munger.

 

Haha, that was great. Kass went into this long spiel and you could tell where it was heading. Then he asked for $100 million or something like that and Buffett was civil in telling him why that wouldn't be possible, but not saying no directly.

 

And then Munger chimes in with a "NO!" and then they move on.

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WEB is not looking hard enough. A polymath like Rolf Witzsche might argue that BRK will become worthless unless they understand the insurance risks they face because the electric universe theory implications. One of his predictions is that earthquake severity and frequency will worsen in the upcoming solar minimums with severity worsening in the second minimum. He suggests it is foolish to build for past conditions and wants to see low rise construction instead.

 

http://www.ice-age-ahead-iaa.ca/

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Maybe a mismatch of perceptions?  Is Buffett looking for someone who actively thinks the stock is overvalued and should be shorted?  I'm guessing there aren't many vocal holders out there who think that.

 

What I think does exist is a large contingency who have some serious questions about the company and its viability post-Buffett.  The problem is these aren't bears, maybe long term skeptics.  Personally I see no reason why the company shouldn't earn market returns, but will they be able to earn above that?  I doubt it over the next 5-10 years, they're simply too big.  Does this make me a bear?  No, I just see opportunity in other companies.  If BRK were to fall significantly in a downturn I'd be buying, why not?

 

I do wonder about 20 years out from Buffett.  I personally don't think the empire he's created will stay together for generations.  Conglomerates never do, and for how hands-off Buffett is he's still the magic formula that makes his creation work.  There are a lot of managers who like working for him, how many will like working for his successor's successor?

 

I tend to agree. 20 years post Buffett, I don't see the culture remaining, especially when you consider the problems he's already had with managers recently. Berkshire will be worth more broken up after Buffett passes.

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