giofranchi Posted January 28, 2014 Posted January 28, 2014 Ok, I know FFH will sink, when Q4 2013 are finally out… Then, I will buy even more… ;D ;D Gio
Guest Dazel Posted January 28, 2014 Posted January 28, 2014 Gio, They are having a great month! Blackberry, bonds, shorts, and currency....all moving up. Dazel.
Guest Dazel Posted January 28, 2014 Posted January 28, 2014 Even Resolute Forest Products is flying for Faifax. They have not had this kind of luck for awhile. Dazel.
Guest 50centdollars Posted January 28, 2014 Posted January 28, 2014 Even Resolute Forest Products is flying for Faifax. They have not had this kind of luck for awhile. Dazel. Yeah Resolute has been on a tear lately
fareastwarriors Posted January 28, 2014 Posted January 28, 2014 Ok, I know FFH will sink, when Q4 2013 are finally out… Then, I will buy even more… ;D ;D Gio No wonder Fairfax is up today. ;)
karthikpm Posted January 29, 2014 Posted January 29, 2014 Any guesses on where book value would stand for the year? Prem had mentioned that they would slowly unwind hedges on CPI . Any ideas on what data would let Fairfax start unwinding their hedges? It appears that the fed is hellbent on creating inflation ..I would love to buy more Fairfax like last year when they got delisted from MSCI..
gary17 Posted January 29, 2014 Posted January 29, 2014 In addition I'd add bank of ireland has done nicely in 2013. prem if I recall invested 300M which should be worth about 1.2b by now.
DynamicPerception Posted January 29, 2014 Posted January 29, 2014 This is funny… $380 is exactly my price target for adding more FFH! ;) Cheers, Gio Just over a week ago you mentioned the above. Care to share why you changed your mind?
giofranchi Posted January 29, 2014 Author Posted January 29, 2014 This is funny… $380 is exactly my price target for adding more FFH! ;) Cheers, Gio Just over a week ago you mentioned the above. Care to share why you changed your mind? What do you mean? Yesterday I added more FFH at $378... Gio
Liberty Posted January 29, 2014 Posted January 29, 2014 This is funny… $380 is exactly my price target for adding more FFH! ;) Cheers, Gio Just over a week ago you mentioned the above. Care to share why you changed your mind? What do you mean? Yesterday I added more FFH at $378... Gio I think you're both looking at Fairfax in different currencies. In CAD it's trading at about 420 and in USD at about 376...
DynamicPerception Posted January 29, 2014 Posted January 29, 2014 Gio my apologies. I'm Canadian, Eh!
Guest Dazel Posted January 29, 2014 Posted January 29, 2014 The Bank of Ireland purchase was 300m euros and yes the return there has been spectacular...It looks like this may be a turn for Fairfax. The assets are largely U.S in currency the muni and Treasury investments look real good for the first time in awhile. 2013 will look very bad but they have had a very good run in their investment portfolio lately and they have plenty of dry powder ready.
giofranchi Posted January 30, 2014 Author Posted January 30, 2014 Gio my apologies. I'm Canadian, Eh! No problem! It is just that FFH’s assets are practically all denominated in USD, therefore I always think in USD, even when I refer to its share price! ;) Gio
Guest Posted January 30, 2014 Posted January 30, 2014 Any guesses on where book value would stand for the year? Prem had mentioned that they would slowly unwind hedges on CPI . Any ideas on what data would let Fairfax start unwinding their hedges? It appears that the fed is hellbent on creating inflation ..I would love to buy more Fairfax like last year when they got delisted from MSCI.. I don't track FFH very closely, but when Watsa say that he was unwinding the hedges?
A_Hamilton Posted January 30, 2014 Posted January 30, 2014 Any guesses on where book value would stand for the year? Prem had mentioned that they would slowly unwind hedges on CPI . Any ideas on what data would let Fairfax start unwinding their hedges? It appears that the fed is hellbent on creating inflation ..I would love to buy more Fairfax like last year when they got delisted from MSCI.. I don't track FFH very closely, but when Watsa say that he was unwinding the hedges? He didn't. The hedges have very little value left between the writedowns/passage of time/continued increases in CPI. Don't know if I want that to reverse or not..
Guest Posted January 30, 2014 Posted January 30, 2014 Any guesses on where book value would stand for the year? Prem had mentioned that they would slowly unwind hedges on CPI . Any ideas on what data would let Fairfax start unwinding their hedges? It appears that the fed is hellbent on creating inflation ..I would love to buy more Fairfax like last year when they got delisted from MSCI.. I don't track FFH very closely, but when Watsa say that he was unwinding the hedges? He didn't. The hedges have very little value left between the writedowns/passage of time/continued increases in CPI. Don't know if I want that to reverse or not.. ah, glad I didn't miss it then. thanks!
Guest Dazel Posted January 31, 2014 Posted January 31, 2014 Europe had deflationary numbers today... How do the CPI contracts trade for Fairfax? Does anyone know. Dazel.
Guest Dazel Posted February 1, 2014 Posted February 1, 2014 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-02-01/bonds-outperform-stocks-in-best-start-to-a-year-since-2008-1-.html Nice for Fairfax.
james22 Posted February 6, 2014 Posted February 6, 2014 Hoping to make Gio proud, purchased FRFHF at $379 today.
gary17 Posted February 6, 2014 Posted February 6, 2014 I wonder how FFH should be valued. If they can just break even on underwriting, technically they will never need to give the float back. So is it not book plus float plus some premium for the future earnings. I mean this is an ideal world. So if it's trading at around book this seems like a bargain.
giofranchi Posted February 6, 2014 Author Posted February 6, 2014 Hoping to make Gio proud, purchased FRFHF at $379 today. ;D ;D If you are interested in FFH’s long-term business prospects, imo today’s share price makes no sense… This, of course, doesn’t mean it cannot slide down even further… As with any other investment of mine, if FFH's share price should keep trending down, I will keep buying. ;) How can I do this? Two simple reasons: 1) I am interested in FFH’s long-term business prospects, and I intend to hold it for a very long time; 2) I have cash. :) Cheers! Gio
giofranchi Posted February 6, 2014 Author Posted February 6, 2014 "Deflationary Forces Unite" by Mr. Louis Gave GioDaily+2.5.14.pdf
Guest Dazel Posted February 6, 2014 Posted February 6, 2014 Gio, It feels like the shares are being completely missed...long term prospects are great...but short term they just proved the whole world wrong in the bond market (again!). I have made a lot of money on a leveraged bond play thorough Fairfax alone...the rest becomes relatively inexpensive after they are right in a big way like this. Dazel
giofranchi Posted February 6, 2014 Author Posted February 6, 2014 Dazel, I think you are right. I have just finished listening to Mr. Cooperman on Bloomberg… I simply cannot buy into the bull argument… I don’t think it is because I am a pessimistic person… My nature is just the opposite… Would I be (or at least try to be) an entrepreneur otherwise? I guess not! Instead, it is because the bull argument imo lacks logical substance… Bullish forecasters always talk about earnings… ttm earnings… To say the market is “fairly valued”… But, truly, I don’t understand… If you look at Price / Sales, Market Cap / GDP, Q Ratio, and Price / Adjusted Earnings, those 4 measures not only have the best long term track record for predicting future market returns on a 10 year basis, but they also point at almost the same exact overvaluation for the market right now (or at least before this “healthy correction” of 5%... who would define a 5% move a correction?!): that is to say in 10 years the market will be little changed, if not at all. Now, this is imo what truly matters! Forget all the rest! A market that will be little changed 10 years from now… Who really think it will be an horizontal line for the next 10 years? No one, I hope. As I see it, FFH simply cannot be but right… Not only, the higher this market goes, the more correct FFH will be proven in the end. Of course this will take 10 years to play itself out… and in the meantime FFH stock price could fluctuate, even wildly. Gio
giofranchi Posted February 6, 2014 Author Posted February 6, 2014 Euro jumps as Draghi dismisses deflation threat http://www.marketwatch.com/story/dollar-rises-against-euro-ahead-of-ecb-boe-decisions-2014-02-06?link=MW_home_latest_news Ok, now I know we will also see deflation... ;D ;D ;D Gio
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