What econ charts do you watch?

[Vish_ram]

Some might question that this is not value investing. Nevertheless, I would like to know the econ charts that you watch to gauge the economic activity, market valuations etc.

 

Please provide the source of the chart/graph.

 

I run some charts in St Louis fed data for GDP/market cap Tobin's Q, S&P 500 vs fed funds rate etc

[no_free_lunch]

Not a chart, but I follow the calculated risk blog closely.  It is US housing centric but covers other core US economic stats as well.  I find the author to be very level-headed, and have been following it since before the 08/09 crisis.  For me, with limited time, it's my one-stop-shop for economic matters.

 

That wasn't a direct answer to your question but I thought I would throw it out there.

[yadayada]

what did he say in 2007?

[bz1516]

I use Econoday to vet the indices I follow for the US.  Its on Bloomberg and others.  No one index over any others. 

 

For materials and commodities related I follow the Chinese economy and use the monthly economic releases from the National Bureau of Statistics, monthly export and import data, iron ore and steel spot and futures prices as well as spot copper and nickel prices.

[no_free_lunch]

In 2007 he was pessimistic on housing and concerned with the economy.  For the most part he just comments on specific stats and doesnt make broad statements but that was my impression.  In march 09 he commented on a roubini piece where roubini called the bounce a suckers rally.  Calculatedrisk said it was too early to call but that all evidence was that it was a normal albeit severe recession.  He said you should start to see a weak recovery in 10.  It doesnt sound like much but with so much fear at the time i think it takes guts to stick to an objective interpretation.  He was right too.

 

Right now he sees 14 as an okay year with government cutbacks having peaked in 13.  One of his goals is to pick the next recession so until he calls it i am fairly bullish.  Not to say the market wont pull back but the usa economy should be okay for 1 more year.

 

[dpetrescu]

I follow the Shiller index. No not the Case Shiller, I just follow Robert Shiller's interviews and writings. He's the only host on CNBC who will say "I don't know", and say it five times in an interview to a confused anchor ("what do you mean you don't know?"). But when he has a high conviction idea, he will create and compile extensive research and publish a book. I've come to the conclusion that behavioral finance provides the most macro insight. Who else not only predicted the last two market collapses but published a book about it right before. His last thought was a few years ago that a bubble could potentially be forming in farmland.