nkp007

That's what he was saying. My personal belief is that if Buffett decided to start over with $1M today, he wouldn't be doing great business, fair price nor would he be doing a pure Graham. He'd be trolling derivative markets where he wouldn't be required to put almost any capital up. The modern Buffett is a brilliant insurance/derivatives calculator. I think he'd be making those 50% returns that way. With only $1mm, he wouldn't have access to the derivatives market.

I used to date a girl who would get turned on by finance talk. She herself was in finance, but knew little about investing. But she could listen to me all day and it would be sexy for her. Dude....why didn't you marry her???? ;) She wouldn't sign the prenup.

How much does Mergent cost? It looks great, but after hunting for the subscription costs and not being able to find it, I'm guessing it is very expensive.

Newsflash, how many value investors at the top of the Forbes 500 list too? Some will claim Buffett, but I'd argue he got there by building a business not pure investing. I think this sort of video is infuriating to investors on this board because most put in so much work for returns far less then her. I don't get the technical stuff, but if it really is as easy to watch squiggles and make money for some people why learn any more? It's not like knowing depreciation schedules or pension accounting is helpful in getting a significant other. Can you imagine someone saying "Once I brought up LIFO at dinner she said I was the one…" I invest this way because it makes sense to me, not because it's the best. I think there are far better and quicker ways to make money, unfortunately that's not what comes natural to me. I think value investing is a misnomer. What most of us on this board do is "opportunistic investing". And over the long-term, I have confidence that good opportunistic investors (which I would argue is exactly what most of the wealthiest people on the planet do) significantly outperform everyone else. No one is infuriated by this girl. I think most people here would probably be infuriated that the notion her newfound success somehow even slightly threatens what we do.

The investing world's equivalent of "Reality Television"

My prediction: he's going to surprise everyone and sell a long-time holding. A bittersweet, yet necessary farewell.

Is the crash starting? http://blogs.wsj.com/canadarealtime/2013/02/08/canadas-onslaught-of-data-mostly-points-one-direction-down/

This got me thinking, I'd love to read a book on the history of GEICO. Found this: http://www.amazon.com/GEICO-THE-FIRST-40-YEARS/dp/B002SIFA4I but I have no clue what would be inside of it.

We're still relatively close to those levels for AIG and BAC. If they're worth multiples of current price, a 20% move still leaves plenty of a margin of safety.

As far as $BAC and $AIG are concerned, I still think they are cheap. Used the rest of my cash yesterday to close out my Salesforce short at a loss :( and plug the liquidity into more warrants. Virtually no excess cash, and just waiting and holding.

If your last name is Patel, hotels are literally THE status symbol in the community. Regardless of economics, regardless of quality, regardless of location, all that matters is how many "beds" you operate. E.g. Mahendra, please meet Rupesh. He owns or joint-ventures in 5K rooms in Florida, Alabama, and Texas. He is the man!

But people can still pull out. All it means is that there will likely be more outflows than inflows, correct? a closed end fund trades like a stock. the capital is essentially permanent. They'll trade above, at and below nav. I don't think this is what is happening. I think he is closing his funds to new investors. That is different from turning it into a closed end fund.

But people can still pull out. All it means is that there will likely be more outflows than inflows, correct?

Is one legally allowed to run a hedge fund and a mutual fund at the same time? I wonder if that's the plan. Let the mutual fund capital slowly run-off, try and coax the big holders into a hedge fund structure, and one day pull the plug on the mutual fund.

Have no fear. Existing investors can still purchase shares whenever they want. So buy some shares now, and a million more in five years. "Effective as of the close of business on February 28, 2013, the Funds will suspend the sale of shares to new investors, including new investors seeking to purchase Fund shares directly from the Funds or indirectly through financial intermediaries. Shares of the Funds will remain available for purchase to existing Fund shareholders. Each Fund retains the right to make exceptions to the suspension of the sale of its shares to new investors, and reserves the right to subsequently commence selling its shares to new investors. Investors may request information by calling Shareholder Services at 1-866-202-2263."

I'm guessing the area this hotel in isn't $100 per night average rate, not that it matters much. If it were $75 per night we'd be talking maybe 1/3 occupied, and for $75 unless this is an extremely rural area I'd be worried about damages from guests. To someone else's point maybe you're not looking at the right books? The real world investments are fascinating. Ultimately the price is 9x cash flow on this thing for a private illiquid deal. This speaks volumes, especially when I see a stock trading at 3x FCF and someone tells me the price is appropriate because the stock is illiquid. I've looked at a ton of hotel development deals. There are three things I generally dislike about them: 1) Heavy price competition. Hotels (within each tier) have very little pricing power. 2) Required capex every seven years or so for franchised hotels 3) Heavy debt loads required for decent returns. Many people tell me their goal is to operate breakeven on a cash flow basis and profit when they sell it. I don't know...

Bank of America is one of the most leveraged ways to invest in American real estate.

That was rude.

I assume this will be put on youtube...!

So assuming there's nothing worthwhile to short right now, when this bubble pops where should we be looking for values? Brookfield Real Estate Services?

Christ. The Mayans were right.

Concentrated investing forces you the discipline of avoiding fliers, coin tosses, and lottery tickets. Also it self-regulates the amount of cash to have available for the once in a lifetime opportunities that seem to becoming more common not less so. I also like about concentrated investing, that there are always tempting but distracting crappy leveraged companies available but they involved too much psychic attention for my taste … they bring with them too many surprises, and surprises are usually bad. It adds a nice filter for me. I ask myself, would I be willing to invest 25% of my fund into this company? If the answer is a quick no, then I save a lot of time by moving on.

I don't think Apple is understandable at all. It's too difficult to figure out how profitable the company will be in five years because the products it will be selling then do not yet exist. I think Apple could belong in a diversified portfolio, but not a concentrated one. Too much uncertainty. Just my two cents/brief tangent. You're right. I should have said: It's popular because its products are popular.

Apple isn't even that good of an investment. what is the upside? Best case scenario a double? Worst case scenario its market share starts to erode in the hypercompetitive space it is in and it falls in intrinsic value quickly. So, medium-high risk for medium-high reward. Not asymmetric at all. It's popular because it's understandable. It's understandable because everyone sees or owns the products. Wait, what were we talking about again?

Concentration is definitely a double edged sword, and a dangerous tool in the hands of an inexperienced investor. E.g. My 40% position in Research in Motion when I started out. That's a lesson I won't ever forget.