longtermdave

I'd say whistleblower walks means he is paraded publicly as a warning to the next fish. Maybe I read it a little too darkly? I think he's talking organized crime, and somebody's dead. This is like trying to interpret a poem, about investing, or something.

This part was too opaque for me. Can you add some detail? How would someone short in a business like you're describing? I assume "walks" means "survives"? The commission goes to...the surviving members?

After watching one out of the many short videos (on valuing banks - dodged it by quoting Aesop), I was stuck by how much he's slurring. He sounds like I've heard other older people sound after getting new teeth. Is this new? I don't watch videos as much as I read transcripts, so maybe I've missed this.

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2017/02/update-on-lack-of-chinese-residential.html

84.8B cash - 24% of the market cap.

I don't know why it isn't in the link that started this thread, but in the SEC filings there is an additional note. This is what integrity looks like:

I spoke to a Brit about this two days ago. He thinks you should stay in because of what happened with Norway. The Norwegians have to obey EU trade laws or they can't access the market. At the same time, they have no voice in determining those laws because they're on the outside.

And more... Buffett's Bad Year Puts Berkshire Shares In A Funk http://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2015/12/31/buffetts-bad-year-puts-berkshire-shares-in-a-funk/?utm_campaign=yahootix&partner=yahootix

Even people who know better get sucked into these things, despite "modern" theories. You can see Cialdini's principles of influence acting in this case: authority, social proof, reciprocity, liking, scarcity, and commitment & consistency, all combining to generate an almost irresistible Lollapalooza that sucked in everyone, even though they knew it would end badly. http://www.colorado.edu/economics/courses/econ2020/4111/articles/soros-fund.html

Munger Says Prepare for Harder World as Purchasing Power Slides: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/munger-says-prepare-harder-world-185025204.html

Is that separation really appropriate? I think it's underappreciated how tools and the way they're used influence our psychology and behavior. Many people here seem to sense this, and I suspect it's the source of the "don't fix what's broke" responses. If the influences are subconscious, how can you be sure some changes won't be damaging?

NPR's Planet Money had a good episode on cotton farming and how cotton is not all the same: http://apps.npr.org/tshirt/#/cotton Actually, the whole series is good.

Think of your house two ways. First, as a place to build a family, a community, and great memories. Second, as a source of large hidden liabilities like a new roof, new HVAC, new garage door opener, etc., that will pop up unexpectedly. In addition, there's the constant updating to keep the Mrs. happy. These are all bills that will come due eventually and you'll need a good cushion of cash to cover many of them.

My secrets are that 1) I don't manage other people's money, just my own. I think that right there gives me an advantage over you professionals (no withdrawals) and reduces stress. 2) I go big when I have a good idea. In the past I have usually had 2-5 good ideas at a time. This year it was mostly just BAC with a lot of leverage. 3) I coat tail other investors at least to initially find my ideas. When I find one I love, I invest big. I made a lot following Biglari into Western sizzlin, Friendlys, Steak & Shake. I did well with NFLX and CMG a few years ago (sold both too early), as well as ISRG. I made out very well with the MIDD/OVEN merger a few years back. And now BAC. I have no idea where my next idea will come from, but I'll know it when I find it. It seems to be working so far. What program/site do you use to get those return calculations?

Hah! Thanks Mohnish! ;D

What market are you in? I've been funding some people who are flipping residential properties and the term is nearly up on the loan. I've been considering whether I should continue funding their next project since prices are up so much and so quickly.

I also believe that if the shooters felt they would never make it on the front page of the paper or on nationwide news most of them probably would not commit the crime. I fully agree here. I just wish it were possible.

I think it's what's wrong with human psychology. If you're already disturbed, seeing the shooting in Oregon gives social proof for going out and doing something similar. Just like airplane crashes increase after a first well-publicized one. Malcom Gladwell wrote about this phenomoen in "Tipping Point" with relation to teen suicide in Micronesia. I thought it was an excellent book. "No. I think it's much more than that, because once you start to understand this pattern you start to see it everywhere. I'm convinced that ideas and behaviors and new products move through a population very much like a disease does. This isn't just a metaphor, in other words. I'm talking about a very literal analogy. One of the things I explore in the book is that ideas can be contagious in exactly the same way that a virus is. One chapter, for example, deals with the very strange epidemic of teenage suicide in the South Pacific islands of Micronesia. In the 1970's and 1980's, Micronesia had teen suicide rates ten times higher than anywhere else in the world. Teenagers were literally being infected with the suicide bug, and one after another they were killing themselves in exactly the same way under exactly the same circumstances. We like to use words like contagiousness and infectiousness just to apply to the medical realm. But I assure you that after you read about what happened in Micronesia you'll be convinced that behavior can be transmitted from one person to another as easily as the flu or the measles can. In fact, I don't think you have to go to Micronesia to see this pattern in action. Isn't this the explanation for the current epidemic of teen smoking in this country? And what about the rash of mass shootings we're facing at the moment--from Columbine through the Atlanta stockbroker through the neo-Nazi in Los Angeles?" I've wondered for years whether there's something different about Canadian society that makes these things less "infectious" there. The news? Societal norms? Correct me if I'm wrong, but I thought the concentration of guns in Canada wasn't too far different from the US. If so, why aren't these events just as common there? My first impulse would be to look at psychological or physical factors rather than the law. E.g., are people less socially or physically isolated? Is there better treatment for mental illness? Is it less stigmatized?

I think it's what's wrong with human psychology. If you're already disturbed, seeing the shooting in Oregon gives social proof for going out and doing something similar. Just like airplane crashes increase after a first well-publicized one.

I've been giving the professionally-managed account a try for the last two years. It has generally held 30 stocks during that time, and has underperformed substantially: total returns +24% for the S&P, +4% for my account. By reporting only the average performance they're not giving the full picture. It would be more informative if they'd publish some measure of the range of results seen in the individual accounts.

I found it interesting that he called BofA a "crappy" business at ~26min. I wonder why...