Charlie

There is practically zero chance of big suprise in the german election. The election polls are the same for months: https://dawum.de/Bundestag/ The winner CDU/CSU is middle/right. No other political party wants something to do with the AFD. Voters really listen to what politicians say.

One should aim for the best and prepare for the worst. Peace and Trade brings Prosperity. The future is uncertain.

If Trump can end the war and bring lasting peace, that would be a huge victory for him. That is one of the biggest advantages of Trump, that he can better communicate with Putin.

Munger at the DJCO annual meeting in 2014 about Elon Musk: "I think Elon Musk is a genius and I don´t use that word lightly. I think he´s also one of the boldest men that ever came down the pike. Put me down as saying I´ve always been afraid of the guy whose IQ is 190 and he thinks it´s 250. I like to think there´s a little of that risk with Elon. He´s a certified genius." This sums it up pretty well.

The germans federal president Steinmeiers speech from the Security Conference in Munich: https://www.bundespraesident.de/SharedDocs/Reden/EN/Frank-Walter-Steinmeier/Reden/2025/250214-Munich-Security-Conference.html Cheers!

Glad that he sold not much stocks. The U.S. government change could have played a big role in this decision.

@boilermaker75 Great purchase price! You beat me. My best purchase price was €51,4175 at 9th june 2011. That was fantastic times.

+1 My family and me are currently at Belek, Turkey. Very good here. Sunny weather and great food at the mediterrean sea.

+ 1 The next 4 years can be very good years, but they can also be very bad years. We´ll see.

DAX at new all-time high: https://www.comdirect.de/inf/indizes/detail/chart.html?timeSpan=1D&ID_NOTATION=20735#timeSpan=SE&e& Investors seem to deny the question of this thread. I liked how Volkswagen made a good agreement with their employees 1 months ago that nobody get fired and in exchange they get 5 year no wage increase. Very good agreement.

@John Hjorth Thanks for recommending the book. I am reading the book and it is very good. Some chapters: - Competitive Advantage is everything. - Make Smart Bets - Be Contrarian: Conserve in a Boom, Build in a Bust: "This future-back perspective, as I've already shared, is fundamental to my approach to both life and business. But its importance is heightened during more extreme circumstances, positive or negative. From a future-back perspective, it´s wise to be cautious when everyone else is investing like crazy, and to make smart investments when everyone else is pulling cash out of the market. This is an underlying principle of value investing, espoused by leaders like Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger. But it´s wisdom that rarely seems to make it into business operations. I believe it works there as well. Conserve in a boom; build in a bust. And nowhere was that advice more dramatically relevant than in the boom years of early 2000s and the bust of the Great Recession." Highly recommended!

A very interesting proposal regarding the German election comes from the FDP. They could govern together with the CDU if they get 5% of the votes. I think the CDU wants to govern with the FDP. Currently they are at 4%. The FDP wants to make equity investments after holding for some years tax-free!!! https://www.fdp.de/sites/default/files/2024-12/fdp-wahlprogramm_2025.pdf

The next government CDU is not left. It is middle/right.

The AFD (Weidel) wants Germany to leave the Euro and the EU. This is absolute idiotic and would hurt Germany from an economic standpoint enormously. Nobody wants to go into coalition with the AFD, because they are talking so much bullshit for so many years (vaccination, wearing a mask, boarder control etc). The last ridiculous thing I have heard is that they are pro Bitcoin. For anybody who wants more this is the program of the AFD: https://www.afd.de/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/2017-04-12_afd-grundsatzprogramm-englisch_web.pdf In the end it doesn´t matter because CDU (Merz) will win and nobody wants something to do with the AFD: https://dawum.de/Bundestag/INSA/2025-01-13/ One of the biggest problems Germany has is we have not enough young people and too many old people. So immigrating able young people is a huge plus not a minus. Germany is a rich, open and friendly country and we want to stay that way. Cheers!

Recently I wanted to test drive a Tesla and the sales people at the telephone said I had to bring a credit card with me. I asked why. He said if I like the car I can pay 250 Euro upfront with the credit card and the rest later. I am pretty sure Elon Musk is using Mungers Psychology of Human Misjudgment for impulsive car selling tactics. That was probably the main reason Musk wanted to meet Munger.