Lazarus

Perhaps I'm overly cynical, but I suspect that a rich guy's 'friends' in an impoverished 3rd world country might have ulterior motives. And openly criticizing a communist and totalitarian government, telling people they need to 'change' their government, is either naive or brave.

It's more than that. Most of their neighbours are also poor: Dominican Republic, Haiti, Jamaica, etc. You're free to speculate as to why, but I suspect there are many reasons that are completely independent of US foreign policy. A few of their neighbours have done well by becoming offshore banking centres, like the Cayman Islands.

We can disagree about that. The point is that Elon was a Canadian citizen but he fled to the USA as soon as possible since it is provides a vastly better business environment. But if you prefer, you can let your dislike of Elon overshadow that point instead of recognizing that Canada has a lot of room to improve.

Canada could have be the home for Elon Musk too. But he preferred to move to the US because he viewed it as vastly more supportive of ambitious business creation. Instead of learning from that, Canada's politicians vilify him for his support of Trump - Ontario cancelled all their Starlink contracts and various provinces removed Tesla products from their EV rebates.

If you want to make a clean break with Canada you would collapse your TFSA before leaving Canada so that you don't have 'gains' that will be taxed by Portugal. But yes, you'll lose the ability to grow anything further tax free in a TFSA. Portugal has lower tax rates than Canada so you would likely end up paying much less tax overall (depending on your financial situation). As for RRSPs, Portugal generally has special rules for foreign retirement plans - gains while trading should still be tax deferred (if that's wrong, then just put your RRSP money in an ETF and stop trading). The withdrawals will be taxed, just like they would in Canada (but at a lower rate) and there is a tax treaty between Canada and Portugal to avoid double taxation - you'll end up paying less tax on it than you would in Canada. Same for any other type of pension you might have. It's not all doom and gloom. Talk to a cross border tax specialist to get advice on how to develop a departure plan, timing of asset sales, etc. The loss of the ability to continue to grow your TFSA is the biggest loss, but the other issues aren't that big of a deal if you truly want to move.

What sort of tax implications could there be for a TFSA? The whole purpose is that it's tax free?

You're a lost cause, man. Dozens of people on this board - who collectively have hundreds more years of experience than you and who have a far deeper understanding of the investing world - have repeatedly told you similar things. But you cling to selectively chosen slogans and cliche semi-truths to justify and stick to a pessimistic and overly cautious outlook.

The real irony is that Blake isn't open-minded enough to recognize those lessons in the very chart he posted. Blake - I'll offer you a well-intended word of advice (which you are going to ignore because you think you know it all): stop being such a pessimist, stop trying to time the market, and start DCA into index funds with the vast bulk (or all) of your investment money. Set it and forget it, and you'll eventually be rich or at least very comfortable. You have a long investment horizon ahead of you so just get the snowball started. If you have super bad luck and the markets crash near term, it doesn't matter - just keep DCA in and view the crashes as a chance to buy more at cheaper prices. You are a pessimist. I've seen you on this board for a few years screaming that the sky is falling. Eventually you'll be right but you'll probably still avoid buying since you'll think the market will fall further still. Blind optimism pays in investing over the long run, as reckless as it seems. Look at your graph: the markets went up doing WW2 even though the very fabric of society was at risk.

My guess is that we're super early in any potential AI bubble. The technology is new, it's the 'next big thing', and we haven't even had significant IPOs yet. Bubbles usually last longer than expected, and they always have big ups and downs along the way as they seesaw between greed and fear. I think we're just getting started. I bought some AI ETFs and am holding on for the ride.

I was simply referring to the compounded return on FFH share price itself. But maybe I'm misunderstanding your point?

Hitting USD 5000 in 5 years requires a 25% CAGR. Almost triple usual market returns. Hitting CAD 5000 in 5 years requires a 18% CAGR. About double usual market returns. Either scenario indicates an outlier. Go fairfax!

Ha ha. You're right though, I should just mind my own business.

This is a crazy way to think about investing. I understand not wanting to risk your nest egg in the market, and your investments shouldn't cause so much anxiety that you can't be present with your family. But that is the beauty of passive investing - just buy an ETF and forget about it. You are making yourself poor by not being in the game (assuming you have time to ride out the swings). I ran the numbers on ETF returns vs. savings returns. If you had the horrible luck of investing $1,000,000 in an SP500 ETF right at the peak of the GFC, it would have crashed down to $430,000 by March 2009. However, it would have recovered fully by early 2013 and would be worth about $6.7 million today. If you were risk adverse and put that $1,000,000 in a savings account at the actual rates between 2007-2026, it would have grown to about $1.4 million.

I don't mean to lecture you, but you're leaving a lot of money on the table by holding that much cash. Why not just go 100% in an index fund and forget about it?

Mining, oil, mineral extraction, fertilizers, etc., are all heavily dependent on the regulatory environment. And since the gov't controls the regulatory environment, that's a good sign for the fund I would guess. The devil will be in the details but I suspect this will be a winner.

Obama wasn't there. He wasn't even in DC.

The 2011 incident: Unemployed Oscar Ortega-Hernandez shot at the White House while Obama was out of the country at the time. The 2014 incident: Omar Gonzalez, an Iraqi veteran with PTSD, jumped the White House fence with a knife. Obama wasn't at the White House at the time. Again, big threat. Would you rather face these incidents or be shot in the ear? Or have a sniper waiting for you in the bushes while you golf? Or have a gunman rush the press conference you are attending? If you can say with a straight face that these are even remotely equivalent, then you've drunk way too much of the kool aid.

I see... I need to unequivocally disprove your use of inflated claims of '30 threats a day' or else it stands as fact. How about: I don't recall Obama ever getting shot. Is that concrete enough? As with many things in politics, I think it's better to just agree to disagree. You can continue to believe that Obama was hated 3x more than Trump and I can continue to believe otherwise.

Those stats are nonsense. Who is counting? What is their criteria? This is worse than the CNN fact-checkers.

Jesus Christ, 55 is old for a new dad! But congrats, this is your legacy. My biggest advice for new fathers is to not let your wife set the agenda for everything. Get super involved and make sure you have an equal say in what happens. I sat back and let my wife take care of things for the first 4 months (she had read the books, after all...) but luckily she sucked at motherhood so she went back to work and I took over. Everything changed - we played out in the mud, went all over, did things. I became much more involved because of it and I have a great relationship with my kids to this day. The little kid years are awesome.

Nibbled at Nintendo.

Are you suggesting that there are no more victims to kill?

You guys are quoting from blogs, not legit news sources. The only legit news article I found says that his wife is a legal headhunter and she made 10 million at her job. And it was disclosed.

The weakness Cubs, is that neither Trump nor Bibi seem to want to put boots on the ground. And Iranian resolve is stronger - they are fighting for their homeland. They are willing and able to put up with economic strangulation far more than the American public is willing to even suffer high gas prices. There's no comparison. Unless the USA actually invades and forces a regime change, they will walk away with the Iranian regime being stronger than before the war.