
ScottHall
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Everything posted by ScottHall
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That's not really how money is made in financial newsletters. I can't say a whole lot more than that except very generally.
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With every episode of QE the Fed becomes less effective, which is why I somewhat support Clinton for her infrastructure spending plan. I've always thought it was appalling that we couldn't get it together and support the financial crisis with a little fiscal policy. It would make me comfortable to elect someone who isn't afraid to talk about it. That said, if Bloomberg ran, I'd vote for him in a heartbeat. The Fed moves markets quite effectively when it takes liquidity away too, not just when it adds it.
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I really don't think it matters much. The Fed moves the markets far more than any president can.
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It's not as easy to understand BRK as people portray. Has some large, very cyclical components to it. FB and GOOG are secular growers. Will be for many years, most likely. Easy to understand business. Easy, easy. The model is so simple. The concern is maybe the valuation's too high. I own both GOOG and FB but not BRK, so I guess I'm voting with my money. But I suspect BRK will do quite well over time.
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Bill Ackman is a glorious and majestic man, his mighty mane tells me he will bounce back. He'll get more chances; too charming not to. Great marketer.
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The easiest way to outperform is to buy an index fund. You'll outperform 90%+ of other investors. You should probably ask why you want to outperform, anyway. Is being a multi-millionaire at retirement not enough for you, or is it the thrill of the hunt? I understand the thrill of the hunt. Not being satisfied with only being in the lowest caste of rich people is kind of silly.
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If you are aware of the problems of plastic, and are moving towards cash...Then you will realize there are all sorts of problems with cash too. One of the major problems is that over long periods of time, cash simply does not hold it's value. Gold & silver do hold their value over long periods of time. Cash also still has a counter party risk. While the risk is MUCH lower than with plastic, it is still there. Gold & Silver don't have this problem. Moving some amount of wealth into physical gold & silver can counter some of the problems with holding large amounts of cash. I have good amounts of silver & gold. I think people that DON'T are extremely foolish/naive. If there is enough interest in this, perhaps it can be stock for yet another thread... One of my fascinations lately has been with the online "stacker" community, with many people who seemingly put all of their disposable income into precious metals. It seems crazy to me but it's quite a sight to see the huge hoards of precious metals that people keep in their homes. Any links? There are probably forums, but I've been watching them on YouTube. There's one link above, but here are a few other ones. and - Junius Maltby showing off his friend's gold stash. This guy also makes nearly daily videos about gold and silver, and has had a field day with the stock market's decline. - Silver Nomad, this guy is just funny to me for some reason. Some combination of his voice and the stuff he says. and - Salivate Metals. This guy's voice reminds me a cartoon character, and has funny views on macroeconomics and why silver's value is constant. There are a hundred more just like these guys, they're just some of my favorite characters. I don't know why I'm obsessed with them. I guess I just find them amusing.
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The article is mostly OK, but it's still MF click bait. Thanks for your honesty. I understand you guys have to do this. Doesn't mean I like it. ;) Take care. I really can't comment on TMF's business practices, sorry. I would like to note, though, that we wrote this for fun and neither of us was compensated for it to my knowledge, and it was something we did independently (not part of our day to day jobs) as we both work in marketing. Again, can't speak to TMF's broader business practices, but I understand your frustration. And no worries, I'm not offended in the slightest. :) Best wishes, Scott
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If you are aware of the problems of plastic, and are moving towards cash...Then you will realize there are all sorts of problems with cash too. One of the major problems is that over long periods of time, cash simply does not hold it's value. Gold & silver do hold their value over long periods of time. Cash also still has a counter party risk. While the risk is MUCH lower than with plastic, it is still there. Gold & Silver don't have this problem. Moving some amount of wealth into physical gold & silver can counter some of the problems with holding large amounts of cash. I have good amounts of silver & gold. I think people that DON'T are extremely foolish/naive. If there is enough interest in this, perhaps it can be stock for yet another thread... One of my fascinations lately has been with the online "stacker" community, with many people who seemingly put all of their disposable income into precious metals. It seems crazy to me but it's quite a sight to see the huge hoards of precious metals that people keep in their homes.
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The article is mostly OK, but it's still MF click bait. Thanks for your honesty.
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What does this have to do with gold and silver?
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Further thoughts on this that I wrote with a coworker: http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2016/01/19/warren-buffett-and-the-cult-of-value-investing.aspx
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I don't disagree with anything you said, just wanted to note the book was published 17 years ago so keep in mind their philosophies have undoubtedly evolved to some degree in the meantime.
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Hi Ratiman, I wouldn't suppose to speak for Tom, but in my conversations with him and observation of his investing style, it seems to have morphed into one that's quite a bit closer to his brother's than it used to be. If you're interested in the Rule Breakers style, you can check out David Gardner's podcast. It's free. http://www.fool.com/podcasts/rule-breaker-investing/
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I thought your results as an investor have been quite good until now… Why do you want to change something that has worked very well so far? Cheers, Gio Because there's always room for improvement. It may turn out - and is likely probable - that I can develop no additional skill this way, but with a miniscule amount of capital it's worth trying. If I stopped trying to improve when I was "good enough," I wouldn't have 20% a year since 2008 (between all private and public securities I own). I've more or less hit a wall when it comes to improving with pure fundamental analysis; I could probably get better, but not that much better. If I can tackle a concept I know essentially nothing about successfully, I'll begin to improve at a much faster rate. And yes, macro forecasting is fun, even when you're wrong. ;)
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I'm trying to expand my skillset from pure fundamental analysis, and have initiated a very small short position in the Euro to play around and see what I can learn.
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I'm sure there has been grade inflation - although on Ds and Fs, I would note that Harvard was singing songs about the "Gentleman's C" back in the early 1900s - http://fdrsuite.org/blog/?p=3082 Also, the number of high school students attending college has risen from 45% in the 1960s to around 65% today (http://www.nytimes.com/2014/04/26/business/fewer-us-high-school-graduates-opt-for-college.html?_r=0) - so perhaps students are learning less per student, but the generation is learning more as a whole. I assume your argument for why giving Ds and Fs is good is that it motivates a fire under a kid's butt to learn? That's probably true, but if the profession he's entering is both selective and grade focused, won't the C serve the same signaling function once we all know the code only it won't have the same deleterious effects on the kid's ability to stay in college... As for college in general, I'm sure you can do great without it, but to gain access to many white-collar industries, a college degree is simply a necessity. Whether that's normatively desirable is another issue... That all makes sense to me. I'm sure many people would like to have a white collar job, but otherwise can't b/c of lack of formal education and/or the proper connections. One thing I'll add to this topic... an obsession with wealth maximization is probably not a good way to spend your life. Can lead to incredibly stressful experiences, vs. being comfortable with what you have and being able to adapt downward. If I didn't have a decent asset base and never got my current job, I'd probably be a part time employee of Starbucks or a pizza place and rooming with five other guys, just so I could do as little work as possible. A strong work ethic is generally considered a positive thing, but at least for me, I've found there's much more value in life than working hard. It's much more interesting just to read and otherwise do what you want most of the time, instead of dedicating more than half of your waking hours to working (including transit, getting ready, etc) in exchange for two days a week where you get to do what you want if you're lucky and haven't entered any other commitments. Purposely building a life around doing as little work and maintenance work as possible is very interesting, one I've found preferable to the alternative. This includes cutting down hours at work to have more free time, and either neglecting or outsourcing what other people consider essential. I once went three months wearing the same set of clothes when I lived in Virginia, when I figured out that either no one cared or dared to complain about it. I have no edge in doing laundry and it's not something I find interesting, so by saving a few hours a week on it, I could then allocate that time to more interesting activities such as hanging out with friends, reading, and other leisure activities. It was a good experience to have. One of the most useful tricks I found was just not owning any furniture, or pretty much anything besides clothes, a television for video games, and a computer. I was in Virginia for three-and-a-half years, and I never owned any furniture (except a blow-up mattress my brother left behind from when he was visiting, which I later cut up). When I eventually moved, that made packing and cleaning the apartment complex very easy. It probably saved 90% of the typical effort and cost that's normally associated with a cross-country move. I now live with my family again, so of course I use the furniture already at the house, but if I move again I plan on doing the exact same thing. Furniture isn't worth the added hassle, and neither are most things that are superficially necessary/and or expected of you by society. For most of them, at least with the people I was associating with, I found I could get away with not participating. If there was one phrase to define my life, it is extreme laziness. It's worked pretty well for me, which is probably the exact opposite of what you would ordinarily expect. So here's to doubling down on laziness in the year ahead.
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Short Pabrai Presentation on Internet Stock Valuations
ScottHall replied to Parsad's topic in General Discussion
He's an old-timey style value investor would be my guess. -
https://twitter.com/ScottMONEYHall/status/677465140229378048
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The biggest thing that I've gotten out of this thread is that we should all be douchebags to people who don't have the same opinions, outlooks on life, and socioeconomic backgrounds as we do.
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At today's prices? Not particularly. I recommended it internally at The Motley Fool when it was half this price a few years ago, though. To be clear, that video isn't a stock pitch. It's just an explanation of a business model. I won't be pitching stocks in any of my videos, just explaining subjects that I find interesting.
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Thanks for the compliment. No, Scott Hall is my real name. I got that a lot in 1st/2nd grade, kids asked if I was named after him. I didn't even know who he was.
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Just one? I don't think I'd be willing to buy just one stock. If you mean to add a new one to my existing portfolio, that's a bit easier. It'd probably be Priceline. It has consistently been on my list of runners up, and I've just never gotten around to buying it. The economics of that business are very attractive.