fenris

20-something boss freezes pensions http://nypost.com/2013/12/19/benjamin-moores-20-something-boss-freezes-pensions-cuts-it-jobs/

Operating/adjusted EPS aside, it's crucial not to compare forward PE to trailing PEs. The market will in almost all years look cheaper than it is as analysts rarely forecast contracting earnings (from a historical perspective). S&P 500 EPS are forecast to grow 9.9% over the next 12 months (on the adjusted number). If you argue with a forward PE vs. historical trailing PEs you're already off by 10%. The numbers I get off Bloomberg are: Trailing GAAP EPS: $96; PE: 18.6x Trailing adjusted EPS: $106; PE: 16.9x Next 12M adj. EPS: $117; PE: 15.3x Seems like the WSJ/Birinyi has a different number of 16.2x forward. http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3021-peyield.html

I'm on the Board of Young Professionals for a terrific young organization called Blue Engine based in New York City (http://blueengine.org/). Essentially they are supporting teachers in low income schools with teacher's assistants to break up the classes into smaller groups and get the kids to learn more effectively (similar to the private school described by Ericopoly, just for less privileged children). They have made incredible strides in getting kids to college-level readiness and they are very adept at tracking all sorts of data to refine the process and identify progress and problems on the most granular level. The founder got his Phd in Princeton by exploring why children from low income backgrounds have low college enrollment and graduation rates. He found that academic rigor and preparation in high school are paramount - not necessarily financial aid (many kids will enter college but drop out relatively soon as they are not properly prepared, often with disastrous financial consequences). That's what this charity is starting to fix. I could write a long post about this but I'll refrain and suggest that you write me a PM if you're interested in learning more. I would ask you to please contact me in case you do consider donating any amount vs. doing it anonymously - I work with our Development/Fundraising Chair and it would be very helpful in several ways.

Alarmist or not, I don't think anybody debates that fixing the Fukushima disaster presents enormous technical challenges and risks. To let nuclear waste pile up in these spent fuel pools all across the country introduces the small chance of a catastrophe. Let enough time elapse and you will get your event. We roll this dice every year and there is no way to get out of it. I'm surprised that the rich and powerful living in and owning New York City have not made a big splash to shut down Indian Point and move the radioactive junk to a place far, far away.

You're also waiting for the squeeze to happen..?

Aside from Hilton and Twitter I would throw in the massive Verizon offering. Leverage in large LBOs has been creeping up towards 2007 levels. PIK toggle deals are back, covenants are gone. Anecdotally, yesterday on Pandora: "if you have a job and $100 in cash, get your new Toyota now. Our goal: 100% credit approvals". I also had a conversation with the manager of large BDC mezz/senior lender this week. Portfolio firms are ok but there are no positive outperformers that show big unexpected growth. And if the short end of the curve ever moved substantially higher, interest coverage would deteriorate quickly from the currently benign levels. I have no idea whether we're topping right now or whether there's another one or two good years ahead of us. Too many variables (China, France, housing market, oil prices, black swans etc). But either way, it's the time to be cautious and conservative.

What makes you think that?

Or buy levered loans instead and get almost the same spread with less credit headache and inherent protection against rising rates?

Any thoughts on why Japanese 10 year rate keeps running up since mid April (now at almost 1% from 0.55% at low) despite the easing? Was the BOJ's QE all priced in? *edit: Oh lol I see Fleckenstein mentioned this as well

Got rid of cable this January. We have Netflix and stream some shows through Amazon. We probably watch a total of 2-3 hours of tv a week (a few select shows) so it wasn't too big a change. Hard to believe how much money we were wasting.

What the..? Is this word of mouth or public record?

Wow, gotta love the young Jim Cramer.. Thanks!

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-09-07/intel-cuts-third-quarter-sales-forecast-citing-weak-demand.html "Intel Corp. (INTC), the world’s largest semiconductor maker, slashed its third-quarter sales forecast citing declining demand for personal computers from corporate customers in a weakening economy. Sales will be $12.9 billion to $13.5 billion, down from a prior projection of $13.8 billion to $14.8 billion, the Santa Clara, California-based company said in a statement today. Analysts on average had estimated sales of $14.2 billion, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. PC makers are reducing orders for Intel’s chips at a time of the year when they normally buy more to build products for the holiday shopping season. Intel said demand for chips used in business machines and orders in emerging markets are worse than expected, compounding concern that the PC market may not grow this year as consumers flock to smartphones and tablets. “It’s worse than everyone expected,” said Patrick Wang, a New York-based analyst for Evercore Partners Inc. (EVR) “Their consumer PC business is getting whacked.”"

But share-based compensation is a non-cash expense and you can show higher "non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA" to the investment community.

I'm looking at DDD Group (listed in London on the AIM). The company has 134m in ordinary shares with a par value of 1p and 74m in "deferred shares" with a par value of 9p. Originally they had 74m shares with par of 10p which they split into 74m ordinary and 74m deferred (since then they've issued a bunch so now they're at 134m ordinary shares). As per their annual report, the deferred shares have no vote, are not registered with the exchange, won't get a dividend and will be paid out in case of a liquidation or takeover at their par value if ordinary shareholders get GBP100m+. Am I reading that correctly? http://www.ddd.com/investors/company-reports-presentations/ The articles of association read similarly plus it seems like the company can cancel/repurchase these shares: https://ddd.com/files/Articles-of-Association-100604.pdf My question is: what could possibly be the rationale for this and is there any way that it is a way for insiders to rip off public shareholders? I have not found anything about a conversion mechanism but my fear is that ie. these deferred shares at 9p par could be converted into ordinary shares at some ratio and massively dilute the equity.

Dalio is excellent. I wonder if anybody has access to BW's daily newsletter?

You just made my day ;D

I believe they gave out some numbers on Blackhawk during the March analyst presentation. Unfortunately IR won't share the presentation. Do you have numbers for Blackhawk's EBITDA, margins or eps contribution? How do you think about Walmart's consistent effort to move into California? A lot of communities are fighting it and delay the competition but do you think there is a scenario in which SWY can get 'caught in the middle' between WMT on the low end and competitors like Whole Foods in the high end? Do you have any thoughts on their property development efforts? They are guiding for 0.85-0.95b in FCF which I think comes out at around 16% FCF yield. If they can protect their core margins, that looks pretty interesting with Blackhawk as a kicker (I think NTSP and GDOT sell at around 8x EBITDA and 20x PE so there could be real value - though I'm really looking for some sort of margin or P&L profile for Blackhawk).

Is this metric not dependent on what percentage of companies is actually publicly traded? Does anybody have information on how that changed over time?

Bonuses and salaries took a pretty brutal beating at pretty much all bulge brackets this year [along with a wave of layoffs in the weeks leading up to the bonuses).

Very interesting guy indeed. I first heard of him when he bought an insolvent German chain of department stores (Karstadt - ugh, crosspost..). It seems that at this point he spends as much time on his various think tanks as on his investments.

If you are short LNKD, what do you think of P? I think AWAY is also part of that same batch.

That is, if Apple can maintain its edge and premium pricing.

Whoa, thanks a ton!

Just remember: 'too big to fail' does not mean 'too big to value of current equity'. AIG didn't fail (technically) - but it's not like that made a real difference for shareholders.