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Madpawn

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Everything posted by Madpawn

  1. Keen to get this boards opinion of cash position vs hunting for good deals - I think this market still had decent deals out there, perhaps evidenced by BRK and other value investors purchasing specific companies on or off the market. That said, I’m struggling to find the balance between buying those bargains and preserving cash in the event where a broader market downturn affects everyone and everything … thoughts on that? It’s like “rational” FOMO on one hand and fear on the other…
  2. India may opt to lower its reserve price for the divestment of a majority holding in state-run IDBI bank by 20%, a newswire reported, citing undisclosed source.
  3. There are also sources claiming Kotak and Emirates NBD are dropping out of the IDBI bid - wondering what’s FIH’s position on this
  4. my thoughts exactly, I like how Prem is able to recognize and admit mistakes…hoping to see the same from Ben and team.
  5. Fairfax India Announces Sale of Equity Interest in Sanmar Chemical Enterprises Limited Headline: Approximately US$27 million at current exchange rates. Following the sale, Fairfax India has no economic interest in SCEL. https://www.fairfaxindia.ca/press-releases/fairfax-india-announces-sale-of-equity-interest-in-sanmar-chemical-enterprises-limited-2026-04-09/ From annual letter (march 2026), Sanmar was valued at US$101M compared to $201M as presented in April 2025's annual shareholder - Is this worrying to anyone else? The whole thesis around FIH is accurate valuation of private assets and we're seeing one of them being sold at 70% discount less than a month after latest communications, not to mention the announcement was oddly dry and straightforward with no explanations.
  6. Indian likely to restart IDBI privatization from scratch: https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/industry/banking/finance/banking/government-likely-to-restart-idbi-bank-privatisation-process-from-scratch/articleshow/129644794.cms?from=mdr It'd be funny if Fairfax ends up buying it for a fair price in next 1-2 years, could also be a big improvement timing wise given BIAL should IPO by Sept. 2026 (fingers crossed)
  7. Keen to get this board's opinion on currency risk as we're essentially dealing with a company operating in Indian (rupee) but traded in USD, with investors largely based in Canada (CAD)...has anyone reflected on / read management's notes on long-term currency implications for Canadian investors?
  8. Anyone has thoughts on a potential BIAL IPO announcement to help fund this?
  9. We'll see about a jump...it'd really depend on the deal structure as FIH does not have the capacity to finance it
  10. Looks like we're getting IDBI Bank ! Fingers crossed the financing of it will be favourable to FIH shareholders
  11. Financial bids for IDBI will be submitted next week and winner announcement by end of March. Curious to get this board’s thoughts - could FFH lend money to FIH for an all cash deal? It should be around $4.5B for 60% of IDBI which can be repaid using proceeds from an eventual IPO of anchorage (last amount a while back was $3.7B).
  12. When is this transcript from?
  13. In my simple mind I also see this as a stopper to buybacks. If FIH ends up winning IDBI, they’ll need capital to inject into the deal no matter the structure - otherwise might aswell say FIH is a pure play on airport and infra and the rest is all FFH. Also, I think Fairfax is in an awkward position where FIH is meant to be kept afloat as a separate entity but any additional buybacks just further strengthens FFH’s position both in terms of voting rights but also commercial ownership. I really hope that regardless of their decisions, we’ll get some clarity by this years annual meeting or when a deal structure is announced for IDBI.
  14. This might’ve been discussed in the past, but in the event where Fairfax wins the bid for IDBI, do we expect FIH to participate? If not and instead FFH does it alone, does it destroy the long-term thesis of having FIH as a standalone entity?
  15. Thanks this is some helpful perspective, the one challenge I have with the tech world right now is I feel like the ceiling is too low hence why the desire to move into something more on the operations / investing side where it seems easier to scale
  16. Is this enough tho? One concern I have is the lack of a CFA/MBA and lack of IB or financial m&a experience
  17. Hi everyone, I’m currently working in consulting tech and have been working on slowly moving towards finance (e.g., I’m now doing tech due diligence, have my own investments through real estate and stocks). What can I do to better position myself for a career in finance at a entity such as Fairfax? I would love to work on the operations side of things and eventually move towards investments management and would appreciate any advise this forum has
  18. I find this note from Q3 earnings quite interesting, gives us an idea of approx timeline for Anchorage IPO: "Non-controlling interests At September 30, 2025 the company held 43.6% out of its 74.0% (December 31, 2024 - 43.6% out of its 64.0%) equity interest in BIAL through Anchorage. As a result, the company's fully-diluted equity interest in BIAL was 69.0% (December 31, 2024 - 59.0%). Net earnings attributable to non-controlling interests of $12,593 and $12,796 during the third quarter and first nine months of 2025 (2024 - $3,341 and $3,641) principally related to net unrealized gains on Anchorage's investment in BIAL based on OMERS' present economic interest. The company shall use commercially reasonable efforts to list Anchorage by way of an IPO in India, subject to regulatory approvals and market conditions by the IPO long-stop date. During the third quarter of 2025, the company and OMERS agreed to extend the IPO long-stop date by one year to September 16, 2026. If the valuation of Anchorage upon closing of the IPO is below approximately $1.0 billion (at period end exchange rates) (91.6 billion Indian rupees), then OMERS' ownership in Anchorage will increase to a maximum of 15.0% and the company's ownership in Anchorage will decrease to a minimum of 85.0% (fully-diluted equity interest in BIAL will decrease from 69.0% at September 30, 2025 to a minimum of 67.5%). If Anchorage does not list by way of an IPO in India by the IPO long-stop date, then OMERS' ownership in Anchorage will remain at its fully-diluted equity interest of 11.5%. The net assets of Anchorage at September 30, 2025 were $1,134,405 (100.7 billion Indian rupees)."
  19. Some observations: - Passengers growth has gone from ~32M (pre-covid peak) -> 46-47M (projections for 2025-2026) - 74% ownership as of Feb 2025 (43.6% through Anchorage and 30.4% through Mauritius-based sub) - OMERS bought 11.5% interest in Anchorage in 2021, with BIAL valuation at $2.6 billion - To your point, in Q3, FIH was carrying it at fair value around $2 billion Looking at the big picture, it's crazy how BIAL's book value which is arguably very conservative, is [as a standalone asset] almost the same as the stock's current market cap.
  20. I thought we would not be getting any additional ads on top of Aja migraine relief stuff. Kinda disappointing given there's also a joining fee :(
  21. I’ve missed the AGM, could anyone provide a summary of what was said about Howard?
  22. My portfolio is very concentrated in 3-4 stocks and Fairfax India being the smallest position there. Seeing people on this forum starting to give up gives me a gut feeling it’s time to buy more …
  23. With FIH selling at 35% discount to BV, I’m surprised to not see more excitement on this forum. Am I being over optimistic?
  24. Hey all, Maybe a silly question but what exactly do you do at these events? I’m interested to attend as a long time fan of Prem and Fairfax but I’m also a bit shy to attend on my own without knowing what to expect. would appreciate any insights, cheers!
  25. I remember seeing you post in recent days that your portfolio is about 35% Fairfax. May I ask if that includes FIH? I'm surprised FIH is not getting nearly as much attention as FFH does.
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