Buckeye

Trump Trade: Long India? From today’s WSJ article: “Trump’s Plans Complicate Outlook For Trade” “Investors are scrambling to figure out where to put their money across emerging markets while bracing for potentially disruptive policies under the new Trump administration. India could be on the winning side of Trump policies. The country is already booming and could gobble up U.S. market share when tariffs send Chinese competitors in retreat. Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who referred to Trump as “my friend” in a congratulatory post on X after the election, is considered to have a good relationship with the president-elect. “India is the highlight in emerging markets,” Dorson said. “It is a key beneficiary from uncertainty around China and supply diversification out of China,” he said. https://www.wsj.com/finance/currencies/trump-promised-policies-complicate-emerging-markets-trade-ce6cb7ba

Personally, I am a little disappointed with this pick. I was hoping President-elect Trump was going to name Barron or Ivanka as AG, but as they say, elections have consequences.

James, I will admit that you have been more polite and civil to me than I have been to you. And for that, I say that I am sorry for being a dick. That is not acceptable on this forum of high-quality individuals. (I am being sincere). I do think Saylor is a scumbag for talking his own book, but he is free to do that. I also recognize that I could be wrong with that conclusion. However once you start comparing Saylor to Warren Buffett, on this forum, you must understand that the elbows may be sharp, correct? thanks!

Thanks for your clarification Milu, I agree with you !! When someone like Gfp or Gregmal disagrees with me, I don’t think “What are they missing?” I think to myself “What is it that I am missing!?”

Milu, I was pretty hard on the Bitcoin Bros, so I will assume this comment is directed at me. But you have completely mischaracterized my comments and are clearly showing your own bias. I never implied that you are either in one camp, or the other camp. I never said that you should or should not buy Bitcoin. In fact, I believe that I said that I am happy for anyone who was made money on Bitcoin. And that it has clearly been a profitable, correct call (so far). I was only questioning the motives behind Bitcoin. That’s all. And when I did, James told me to “have fun being poor” I think most members on this forum are clearly very, very smart people (except for maybe me?). But the fact that so many very smart people can have completely different viewpoints on this topic is intriguing to me. As is the motivations behind Bitcoin, which I don’t think get enough attention. That’s all. Thanks!

I am with cwer on this. It’s a large position for me and I have no intention to sell anytime in the next 20 years (or more if I can help it). It’s seems like this compound train is just getting started. TBH, even if it doubled (which I know it won’t) but even if it did I probably wouldn’t sell. Partly because I am lazy (selling stresses me out sometimes) and partly because I wouldn’t know what to do with the proceeds. Plus, even it doubled (which it won’t) and then retreated a bit, my binoculars are telling me there’s a quadruple in the not too distant future.

Thanks for your perspective Gfp and good points on where we came from RKBA!

Thank you for your clarification SD!

When I look at the past 15 year performance of Bitcoin, it is clear that it has gone up in price by a lot! One thing that gives me pause tough, is that this 15 year time frame happens to coincide with zero to negative interest rates. Money during this time has been essentially free. We saw that this free money led to some huge distortions in the price of all types of things. Most of those things have returned back to earth. It now seems like the current period, and the next couple of years, may be marked by more normalized interest rates. Is there any concern from the Bulls that the out performance of Bitcoin over the past 15 years could have been caused (at least partially) by ZIRP? And before someone responds to say "Well, interest rates have gone up a lot in the past 2 years, and look at how Bitcoin has performed," I recognize that. I also recognize that just because Bitcoin has performed well in the past 2 years, does not necessarily mean that it will perform well in the next 5-10 years if rates were to stay where they are (or even go up). Correct? Thoughts?

Thanks Wacht! I understand that I need to assign a probability to the potential outcome, just trying to first understand what the potential outcomes are/could be. Thanks.

Hello SD, thank you for your reply. I completely understand everything you are saying here. It's just that your comment about "there not being a way to currently value Bitcoin" seems to contradict all of the other valuation techniques provided by the other Bulls. And this small detail may be one reason why Newbs like myself, Reds and Luke are having a difficult time assigning a value to Bitcoin. Do you care to correct your original comment? Thanks.

Thanks Wacht! Sounds like another possibility at a total loss of capital. That is quite some downside. It seems like most of the reasons I have heard thus far could result in a total loss of capital. But that's what I asked for! My name may be Buckeye, but it sounds like I may need bigger nuts than a Buckeye to jump into the Bitcoin boat.

Thank you for your thoughtful reply RK. These all seem like valid concerns that I can add to my understanding of Bitcoin. I hope to possibly hear some other examples from the other experts. It is a little scary to me that your first 3 examples most likely end up in a complete loss of capital. But as they say...scared money don't make money. Whoever "they" are. Thank you!

Hello SD, thank you for your reply. And thank you for making me a portfolio analyst in your example! However, I am just Buckeye, the boner of the Midwest, but I am beholden to no one. If I were to buy 1 Bitcoin with plans to hold for the next 5-10 years, what are some of the reasons (if any) why my Bitcoin investment would not work out? Certainly with the 100’s of hours you and the other Bitcoin bulls have spent reading up on this subject, there should be some reasons, correct? If so, can you please help me understand one or two of them? And any other Bulls please feel free to add your reasons. Thank you!

So then you do agree that there are methods to value Bitcoin? Because it seemed to me like you saying “Folks just can't get past that the price of BTC cannot be supported by DCF valuation; the reality is that it doesn't exist yet, 'cause it's just too early. Not much different to trying to value a relationship” implies to me that the valuation method for Bitcoin does not yet exist. So which is it? Or am i misunderstanding your quote? Thank you!