dwy000

The problem with that is social security is seen not as a tax but as an "i paid in, I want my benefit" program. People think of it like a pension (i know it's not but that's how people view the concept). If you disconnect the pay in/pay out it just becomes taxes. I like the aussie superannuation concept that combines IRA/401k idea with a soc security component. But the current system is unsustainable.

You Theres no question at all that taxes have to go up. You can't solve this this solely by cutting spending (without sending the economy into a tailspin). That being said, longer term solutions also need to be implemented to cut costs. Cutting Medicare, Medicaid and Soc Security can be done on a graduated basis with reduced impact on those getting current benefits or in the next 3,5,7,10 years. Anyone who has interacted with DoD knows you can easily get 10-15% reduction there without impacting military capabilities (maybe even improve them). But it needs to be scalpel not hatchet or chainsaw. We don't need to balance the budget in 2 years. We need to be on a trajectory towards a balanced budget to make the bond market happy. Bond holders want to know that the problem is being acknowledged and dealt with not that it's resolved immediately.

Really? You didn't see that coming from like 30 minutes in? The details, yes, that surprised but the outcome was forgone from the first vote.

Have they started negotiating? They were tweeting about every phone call before but nobody has said anyone is actually back at the table. A full trade deal has to go thru Congress. All Trump can do is reduce whatever was done by executive order.

I hope you're Canadian.

Ah, the "he is crazy so we better make a deal" strategy. Unfortunately the Japanese negotiators went home thoroughly confused and have now decided they need to circle the wagons because there.may not be a deal to be had. So much winning!

This presumes you know what you're asking for in the negotiations.

I moved from Toronto 28 years ago and at the time they were in an existential crisis over whether condo prices were in a bubble.

Every time he thinks he's out....they pull him back in. https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/20/us/politics/hegseth-yemen-attack-second-signal-chat.html?smid=nytcore-android-share

To quote John Wick "it was never about the fucking dog/fentanyl"

The fact that he's using fentanyl emergency to negotiate trade deals with Japan, Australia, Switzerland, Canada etc.

Lying (which is Trumps go to starting point) about fentanyl as a reason for trade wars undermines any actual effort to fight against fentanyl. They're 2 different fights and Trump is using one without any effort to do anything about it, as an excuse to act against the other.

You don't actually think the whole tariff debacle is about fentanyl do you? That's just the excuse to impose "emergency" powers for the exec orders.

Is it grape or cherry Kool Aid?

I guess even if you pass along every dollar of tariff it hits your EBIT margin. Wouldn't impact your $'s of EBIT but the margins will decline. I'm not convinced they will eat any of the costs. Why would you?

How much of that was stocking up in advance of tariffs?

And the "savings" will be like the synergy savings companies claim when making acquisitions. No evidence, no receipts, things that were already in progress and then a total number that appears out of midair

I see it as this reversed. Because there is no plan, no competence, terrible communications, changes done by the hour, etc there is no ability to predict or model or make projections. That leads to forecasting that includes doom scenarios because nobody wants to take a permanent loss of capital. That leads to hating Trump because he is the originator of all this uncertainty.

Start a war?????? The man is a moron.

Most of the luxury brands are not being bought because of where they're made, it's all about brand and image. Anyone thinking it costs $1000 to make a purse anywhere in the world is kidding themselves. Those brands will never allow their products to be sold directly from Chinese factories because it diminishes the brand. They will either be counterfeit or the brand will move their production.

Marc Rowan would have been excellent. But he's too smart to have taken the job without the ability to do it right

Or he's a smart guy put into an impossible position of backing a policy he clearly doesn't support or believe in.

Customs officials wouldn't be blamed if they called in sick for the next month or two.

Given you posted this an hour ago it's already out of date. So now Trump says electronics and phones are not exempt, they are subject to 20% tariffs. And there's more electronics tariffs coming. Hes blaming the "fake media" for reporting it wrong even though it was his messaging and his messengers!!! The incompetence is just astounding! They literally have no idea what they're doing. It's truly a clown show.

Probably not but the same can be said of any other country. I would hope you could trust your own leaders more than foreign leaders to do whats in your best interest but that has also been thrown a wrench by Trump. Right now I'd probably trust Canada and the EU to stick to their word more than Trump. I'm not sure what that has to do with the chaos he is causing and it's impact on our relationships both short and long term.