dwy000

Which one is that? North Korea is literally selling soldiers to Russia and starving its people. The survival of their leadership depends upon threatening the West.

That was exactly the argument for Iraq and WMD's. And the exact same arguments can be made even more strongly for North Korea with an even nuttier leader and with existing nukes. I agree its a matter of degrees but this is one where we could have sat back and let Israel do all the hard work (both militarily and politically). The US is now militarily involved, didnt eliminate the problem and in fact may have made it worse.

This has been the case throughout history. Hitler literally wrote a book on what he intended to do and the world refused to do anything - even after he invaded Poland. But pre-emptive action has always been politically undesirable. Why send your kids to die to stop something that people disagree is going to happen? And you could be wrong (Iraq and WMD's). Its hard enough to get political backing to support Ukraine and that invasion has already happened and doesnt need our boots on ground. Should we pre-emptively strike North Korea and risk a massive loss of life to prevent a potentially even worse outcome that may never happen? Unless the outcome is inevitable (which nobody will ever agree on) people always prefer to wait.

I tend to agree with this although may be slightly more optimistic (down 10-15%). A lot will depend upon where tariffs end up but you simply cannot add this level of taxes, deficit and, most importantly, uncertainty without repercussions. And I'm more concerned about longer term damage from our best trading partners all actively lowering trade barriers and seeking to increase trade away from the US. That generally doesnt come back.

Thats what the person is but jobs aren't defined that way. Jobs are jobs. Apple hires an engineer born in Lithuania, is that a foreign job? McDonalds hires a fry cook born in Kentucky, is that a domestic job?

What is a native born job vs a foreign born job? Does Apple hiring an engineer count as a foreign born or native born? What about a person working at mcdonalds?

They are teenager (boy) and tween (girl). We did all the regular tourist stuff since it was their first time there (wife and I have been many times). Louvre, Musee d'Orsay, Versailles, Eiffel Tower, Latin Quarter etc. Did one day where I took my son on a tour of PSG soccer stadium (was great) while my wife and daughter did a fragrance museum. Definitely some things were better received than others (taking a tween to musee d'orsay and then the Louvre next day was pushing it). We stayed at an AirBnB in Le Marais area which was perfect. Its close enough to walk or quick Metro to everywhere but far enough removed that its mostly locals not tourists. Both of them loved the clothes shopping and sitting in cafes people watching. The decline of the USD wasnt pleasant for me but its still not overly expensive.

Maybe to distract from the Epstein news.

Wasn't there supposed to be 90 deals in 90 days and 200 countries were begging for deals? Still not a single one signed and doesnt look like very many are even returning calls.

Just got back from Paris, taking the kids for their first time. I always forget just how vibrant and alive European cities are. The sidewalks and stores and restaurants are just packed on an average Tuesday or Wednesday. People there definitely know how to enjoy daily life. The first thing the kids pointed out was how few fat people there were. Its really noticeable. And especially surprising given the amount of pastries and pasta people consume. Of course they all ride bikes everywhere so that helps. Gorgeous city still.

That article was from March 2024. I also have to question the source of the claim that there are only 6-7k job openings for software engineers each year. China and Russia aren't the only alternatives to the US for foreign employment. Theres Europe, Australia, Asia etc.

Are you saying the US armed forces will go back in again (2 or 3 more times)? Despite there being a ceasefire.

Doesn't Israel have a flat 50% tax rate? I'm sure that helps balance the budget.

7 different champions over the past 7 years. Love him or hate him but Silver has made this one of the most watchable leagues in professional sports.

How's that possible? Theres a ceasefire.

No....we are literally reacting to Trump's statement and the response from Iran. And given Trumps repeated history of, well, lying, its sad that we look to Iran to actually believe what he's stating or not. I'd love there to be a ceasefire. But its sad that nobody (other than Cubs) believes our own president until another country confirms or denies it.

Well there is the part where Iran state media just denied the ceasefire. Which is odd because its not like Trump to announce that something has been done when it hasn't.

I worked in this industry (underwriting and managing high yield debt usually from PE buyouts) for a long time. Its been fascinating to watch it evolve. For the longest time it was all underwritten by investment banks and distributed to smaller banks. Then the loan funds got created (CLO's etc) and the hedge funds played, and then the debt side of the PE firms got involved. At first they were just holding and managing but now they're underwriting too. What's been lost along the way are the controls and risk management triggers that used to be rampant when banks held the debt. First it was loose covenants, then covenant lite, and now there are practically no covenants at all. And the baskets for permitted activities expanded and expanded. Right now there's very little distinction between loans and bonds and owners rely on the structural distinctions for protections (1st lien vs 2nd lien vs unsecured vs subordinated etc). What it means is the can gets kicked way down the road until bankruptcy is almost inevitable. Previously a covenant would be tripped to get a restructuring started but now its just positioning into a chapter 11 filing. And the fascinating part is where the PE equity owner starts buying up various tranches of debt in their own deal (or thru friendly hands) to control the restructuring. And then dont even start once the synthetic holders get involved (and a deal can have 3x the amt of synthetic debt as actual) Its fascinating but the one reason I would never invest in those funds is that there is no chance you are getting a decent risk adjusted return on your investment.

The point i was trying to say was that a 1% increase in interest rates will now have 2.5x the impact on budgets than it would a couple of decades ago. I agree a 2% deficit is less meaningful now than with a lower and less diverse GDP. But now, a relatively small change in interest rates can have a huge impact on budgets and deficits (and therefore spending on everything else).

I think the big "this time is different" argument is that last time rates were double digits the Debt/GDP ratio was under 50%. Its now 125%. So the impact of higher interest costs is 2.5x (relative to GDP).

I completely agree with that.

Maybe she can launch like a crypto currency or a wine or sneakers.

She literally has to post her assets and net worth like every congress person. Her net worth is under $50k. There are lots of names you can point to who are milking the system to get personally wealthy but thats not one.

AOC disclosures from earlier this year put her net assets at less than $50k with $15k of outstanding student debt. If she's flying on private jets its someone else's dime because she doesnt seem to be personally getting rich.

Posted from his new phone?