Liberty

I haven't actually lived through (well, I was alive, but not paying attention) an insurance cycle going from soft to hard. What does it usually look like, and how long does it take before the insurers that are disciplined can take advantage of the hard cycle?

That's terrible, but I can't help but wonder if it could turn into a good buying opportunity (especially for WEB, who has billions to invest) if it's a fixable problem and there's not too much permanent damage to the brand..

Same here. I expect to be a buyer of shares for quite a while, so the more depressive Mr Market is, the better. ;D

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-03-09/berkshire-takes-2-25-billion-in-dividends-from-burlington.html Not bad at all ;D

I know many of you read and print the PDFs - which is what I've been doing so far - but if you want an official hard copy, where do you get it from? I'm kind of new to this, so I'm not sure what the best way is. Should I register with my discount broker in some way? Do you contact investor relations directly at the companies and ask for the reports? Or do you use some other third party site? I found http://www.prars.com/index.php Which seems pretty great, but I haven't received anything from it yet. Maybe there's a better one (that ships to Canada)? Another question: Is there any easy way to get hard copies of reports from past years? Thanks.

bsilly and crip? I'm very curious to know more about these people or sites that you are comparing in usefulness to this board. Care to elaborate?

I would go with the best business because I try to only invest in quality businesses (if the companies that I invest in then go buy some deep value stuff, that's fine because they are better investors than I am). I only buy stuff I wouldn't mind owning for 10 years or more.

http://www.engadget.com/2011/03/07/western-digital-drops-4-3-billion-to-acquire-hitachi-gst-enter/

I stopped reading after a little bit because I was getting the impression that she was just re-writing Buffett's annual letter. :-\

Wow. Where I am things aren't nearly as inflated as Vancouver, but it's still relatively high and I'm in no hurry to buy (renting money from the bank vs. renting an apartment/condo/house is how I think of it...).

I'm actually betting that the Canadian RE bubble will burst (or at least significantly deflate) in the next few years by staying a renter instead of buying.

Thanks! That sounds interesting.

It's in the annual letter on fairfax.ca

Eggbriar, out of curiosity, can you describe the content a bit? Is it only a compilation of interviews? Were they done specifically for the book or gathered from various places? How many pages? Thanks!

Ha! I had noticed that! It makes you two sound in a good mood and enthusiastic, so that's not a bad thing ;D

Thank you so much! I truly appreciate it, as I love learning more about this fascinating company that is around 1/3 of my portfolio ;D

Another great excerpt:

I just thought that if it's not possible to get hard copies for people not at the assembly, maybe Fairfax could publish the PDF on their site. A hard copy would be better, but this would be second best.

I'm not done reading the annual letter yet, but after reading the part about the book above I became sad because I probably won't be at the shareholder's meeting :-[ Is there any way at all that we could organize it so that people who can't make it still get the book? If someone can pick a copy for me I'd have no problem paying for shipping (via paypal or I'll send a check). Or can anyone with contacts at FFH (Parsad?) ask if they will be sending copies of the books if we contact their investor relations or something like that? I really want to read it. Thanks! ;D

A_Hamilton, that's kind of what I said in the next paragraph that you didn't quote. I'm ok with FFH investing in messy stuff in its equity portfolio, and I'm not one of the people complaining about it because I know that they still have tons of quality stuff too, but for some reason, I'm a lot more nervous about them doing the same thing with wholly own subsidiaries. As for WEB, I'm pretty sure that Buffett had said that he'd now have billions more if he had never bought Berkshire Hathaway, so that might not be the best example for FFH :)

I do have a few doubts. Here's my thinking: The Fairfax ppl are very smart and their investing success lies in good part in their businesslike approach (they try to understand the businesses, instead of just the stocks as abstract things). These qualities that help them buy parts of businesses should help them make good choices when it comes to whole businesses. What I'm worried about is that they'd go for messy turnarounds rather than quality businesses with durable competitive advantage and low capital requirements that come with a good management (a Canadian See's Candies or whatever). But I'm not sure if my fear is rational. After all, if they're doing a good job of owning parts of messy businesses in their portfolio, maybe on average they would get equally good results with wholly owned messy businesses? Of course, it's harder to dump the whole business than dump a stock when it turns out you were wrong, and if things go really wrong, it'll take more resources to deal with (most important of all, the mental energy of FFH's top brains). I think that's why I'd rather see them go the BRK/MKL way and stick with quality, but that's as long as whatever they buy has a higher expected return than a comparable investment in stocks or in an insurance co acquisition. That might not happen that often, but it could be more frequent as they become bigger...

Does anyone have Od. Re's average combined ratio for the past 10+ years handy? After a quick look, it seems to move between 95% and 110%, but that's just at a glance.

I hope so - BRK did it, MKL is starting to do it. It seems like an excellent "next step" for FFH. Fron your lips to Prems ears..... I agree as long as that's the best allocation of capital (and I know I'm stating the obvious, but it must be said). If insurance cos are cheap right now, that might be the best thing to acquire more of, but that won't always be the case and it would be nice to have a structure set up so that we know that capital can go to the best businesses available regardless of whether they are insurance or not, or publicly traded or not.

I think Sea Island was kidding guys, but you never know on the internet. That's why it's important to use smileys ;D

You can't know, but you can say: History has taught me that a couple years form now things will probably be much better. If they aren't, I lose, but I'm betting the higher probability that they will be. And if I lose, chances are that selling in 2010 will turn out to be better than selling in 2008 when the panic started (panics is intense, but it rarely lasts 2 years). And if I do lose, what do I lose? Not everything, because I can sell just enough to create a 1 year buffer and see in 1 year if things are better, I don't have to recreate the whole 3-4 years buffer. That's my thinking right now, anyway. I should do more research on the average duration of stock market panics and how fast things bounce back...