Carvel46

Was using j3sg.com, but I stopped receiving daily emails of insider activity. Anyone have a free service that aggregates and emails insider activity? Thanks!

Any idea what the authors are referring to here? "...And companies content to adapt to this rather than create the conditions where equities might look exciting again..."

Garnaut speaking at USC U.S.-China Institute Is China Becoming a Mafia State? (45 minute talk)

14 minute interview on NPR: http://hereandnow.wbur.org/2012/03/20/ben-bernanke-fed

Body paint correlates with winning years.

Wynne Godley, October, 1992: "If a country or region has no power to devalue, and if it is not the beneficiary of a system of fiscal equalisation, then there is nothing to stop it suffering a process of cumulative and terminal decline leading, in the end, to emigration as the only alternative to poverty or starvation. I sympathise with the position of those (like Margaret Thatcher) who, faced with the loss of sovereignty, wish to get off the EMU train altogether. I also sympathise with those who seek integration under the jurisdiction of some kind of federal constitution with a federal budget very much larger than that of the Community budget. What I find totally baffling is the position of those who are aiming for economic and monetary union without the creation of new political institutions (apart from a new central bank), and who raise their hands in horror at the words ‘federal’ or ‘federalism’. This is the position currently adopted by the Government and by most of those who take part in the public discussion." Read more: http://www.newyorker.com/online/blogs/johncassidy/2011/11/wynne-godley-eurosceptics.html#ixzz1cfHYW4S5

Here's a great talk by Michael Pettis on the China growth model and historical comparisons. http://paul.kedrosky.com/archives/2011/10/michael-pettis-talks-china.html (42 minutes)

Larry Summers, the man that helped get rid of Glass-Steagall and then ten years later advised Obama against putting big banks into receivership, is telling us that our society needs accountability. Stunning! From the horse's lips.

2,000 gold ATMs in China seems like another sign of a bubble in gold. Listen to Prem! Moore, what do you like about a "hard currency" system? Help me understand your argument. A "hard currency" system seems prone to frequent deflationary episodes.

http://www.bloomberg.com/video/75940340/

The chart below touches on many of the issues being discussed on this thread. (It's based on “Focus: A simplicity manifesto in the age of distraction” by Leo Babauta (available free online). Looks like a good book, although I haven't read it yet. http://learningfundamentals.com.au/wp-content/uploads/Focus-medium-border.jpg Larger chart: http://learningfundamentals.com.au/wp-content/uploads/Focus-mindmap-for-web.jpg Review of Book: http://learningfundamentals.com.au/blog/developing-razor-sharp-focus-with-zen-habits-blogger-leo-babauta/

Creating a checklist 3 years ago, helped me take some emotion out of investing. HarryLong, what % of your time do you allocate to improving your computer system vs. researching ideas? I'd like to understand how you use your computer system. It seems you trust the system because you've built it and understand the inputs. The problem to me is that not all key inputs, when valuing a business, are quantifiable and I'm not comfortable with momentum investing. What level of human judgment goes into implementing your system--once the ideas emerge? Also, I'm curious what type of model/system/screen you pulled SURW from? I'm assuming it's a pre-capex cash flow/EBITDA screen. Thanks

Media delivers a certain type of viewer/consumer to advertisers. Media produces the content that viewers already believe and will accept without thought.

Anyone know who Michael Haley is? I can't find info on him. Thanks! Item 1.01 Entry into a Definitive Material Agreement. On August 12, 2011 (the “Closing Date’), Chanticleer Holdings, Inc. (the “Company”) and Paragon Commercial Bank (“Paragon”) entered into a credit agreement (the “Credit Agreement”). The Credit Agreement provides for a $2 million revolving credit facility with a one (1) year term from the Closing Date. The Credit Agreement is available to be drawn at the Company’s discretion to finance investments in new business ventures and for the Company’s general corporate working capital requirements in the ordinary course of business. Borrowings under the Credit Agreement bear interest at the greater of: (i) floor rate of 4.50% or (ii) the Wall Street Journal’s prime plus rate (currently 3.25%) plus 0.50%. All unpaid principal and interest are due one (1) year after the Closing Date. Any borrowings are secured by a lien on all of the Company’s assets. The obligations under the Credit Agreement are guaranteed by Mike Pruitt, the Company’s Chief Executive Officer. In addition, the Company entered in a Collateral Agreement pursuant to which Michael Haley pledged cash collateral of $2 million to Paragon to secure any borrowings. The Collateral Agreement bears interest on amounts drawn at the rate of 1.00% monthly, payable in arrears. The Company also granted to Mr. Haley ten (10) year common stock warrants to purchase 200,000 shares at $2.75 per share and 225,000 shares at $3.50 per share. The warrants contain standard anti-dilution provisions. On August 18, 2011, the Company issued a press release announcing that it had entered into a Credit Agreement with Paragon. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1. http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1106838/000114420411048494/0001144204-11-048494-index.htm

Parsad, thank you for sharing your wisdom! So many wise words! I'm fond of, "One piece of advice...enjoy the process, don't kill yourself, don't be too hard on yourself and stick to your principles." Much gratitude!

How can I calculated the inflation assumptions built into TIPS prices?

That's really funny, Aberhound. Tom Hanks is James Bond

ragnarisapirate: Yes, I'm talking end of the world insurance. (No, to the other two.) Does "end the world insurance" have any price sensitivity? :D Gundlach commented a few months ago that he prefers cash and gems due to portability. (I could make a joke here, but I'll resist)

Parsad: Do you see any "value" in continuing to hold a 1-2% physical gold and silver position as "insurance"? A relative keeps asking me and I keep going back and forth (they have held it for several decades). I'm curious about your opinion (and anyone else's). Thx

Does anyone have any experience with U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS)? I don't understanding what the TIPS market is doing/pricing in... http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=TIP&t=my&l=on&z=l&q=l&c= Many thanks, in advance!

Thanks Vinod. That's cool! If my calculations are right... 12,000,000 shares x $25 = $300 million position If his AUM is $20 BILLION (largely bonds), then $300/20,000 is a 1.5% position. It's a large % of the equity side, but not a large % of the total portfolio.

I had that coming! :D I would own gold if I was a momentum investor or if I expected hyperinflation. Gold does not generate cash, therefore I believe the burden of proof is on the owners of gold to explain their investment rationale. There’s a good paper, “Hyperinflation - It’s More Than Just a Monetary Phenomenon”…that explores why hyperinflation occurs. http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1799102 (10 pages, see “one-click download”) “While some of these ingredients exist in the modern day United States (to a very minor degree) I would argue that the United States is a long way from experiencing the type of environment and downfall that is consistent with past hyperinflations. The most important aspects of currency collapse simply do not exist in the United States today: -We do not rely on the kindness of strangers (no foreign denominated debt). -We are not experiencing any sort of extraordinarily unusual social circumstances or severe exogenous forces (losing war, regime change, government corruption, etc). -We are not lacking confidence in the sovereign nation. If there is one thing that Americans are known for it is their resilience and borderline arrogance with regards to the strength of their country. -We are not experiencing a collapse in the domestic economy (not yet at least).” Is there something by Grant on gold that you’d suggest reading? I’d like to more fully understand his analysis. My experience is that the line between analysis and ideology/dogma on Wall Street is not so clear! Grant has an incentive to sell newsletter subscriptions and go on CNBC with a lot of emotion and hyperbole. Bill Gross has an incentive to push for government cuts. We live in a political economy! Klarman has a great quote, Wall Street will always try to “rip out our eyeballs” on a trade.

USC School of Law Commencement - May 13, 2007: http://www.valueinvestingworld.com/2007/05/charlie-munger-usc-law-school.html "Minds made of cabbage"...I love that! Anyone have a cole slaw recipe? Prem! More Munger gold! "I have what I call an iron prescription that helps me keep sane when I naturally drift toward preferring one ideology over another and that is: I say that I’m not entitled to have an opinion on this subject unless I can state the arguments against my position better than the people who support it. I think only when I’ve reached that state am I qualified to speak. This business of not drifting into extreme ideology is a very, very important thing in life." "Of course the self-serving bias is something you want to get out of yourself. Thinking that what’s good for you is good for the wider civilization and rationalizing all these ridiculous conclusions based on this subconscious tendency to serve one’s self is a terribly inaccurate way to think. Of course you want to drive that out of yourself because you want to be wise, not foolish. You also have to allow for the self-serving bias of everybody else because most people are not going to remove it all that successfully, the human condition being what it is. If you don’t allow for self-serving bias in your conduct, again you’re a fool." Plus, lots of other great lines!

I never realized how dogmatic Jim Grant is about Gold (and the Gold standard). http://www.valuewalk.com/videos-with-text-summary/james-grant-european-crisis-morning-cnbc/ ** “Another thing I think should be avoided is extremely intense ideology because it cabbages up one’s mind. You see it a lot with T.V. preachers (many have minds made of cabbage) but it can also happen with political ideology. When you’re young it’s easy to drift into loyalties and when you announce that you’re a loyal member and you start shouting the orthodox ideology out, what you’re doing is pounding it in, pounding it in, and you’re gradually ruining your mind. So you want to be very, very careful of this ideology. It’s a big danger.” ~ Charlie Munger

QE2 and the Ensuing Disequilibrium: http://pragcap.com/qe2-and-the-ensuing-disequilbrium