Carvel46

Justin Fuller is the guy who recommended Financials in the Morningstar Ultimate Stock Picker during 2007 and 2008. Don't know much else. As always, Wall-Street has a short memory... just roll over annual figures and press play on the boombox for musical chairs.

I was curious if anyone else has created a detailed Investment Checklist? After I read Poor Charlie's Almanack, last summer, I created my own investment checklist http://www.poorcharliesalmanack.com/index.html Guy Spier recently gave a presentation on Investment Checklists: http://manualofideas.com/blog/2009/07/guy_spier_live_blogging_the_va.html Anyone use one also? What are some of your items? A few from my list: MOS, cash generative, story stock?, honest management, capital allocation, invert, understand Porter 5... Thanks!

Indeed Crip1! I don't know the full story, but hubris & haste may have worked in Baseball but it doesn't work in investing.

This is funny... although the constant interruptions, to the music, gets annoying. http://vimeo.com/4169174?pg=embed&sec=

Yes, their margins may drift slightly higher but WMT will never have robust margins. Anyone who knows Wal-Mart's business knows that they focuses on turns/working capital not high margins. A department store focuses on high margins. Wal-Mart is more impressive in working capital (and the cash flow statement), while department stores focus on high margins (looks good on the income statement).... at least when there's a cyclical economic upturn. In a downturn, department store margins get hammered (very cyclical from my experience). If you look at the WMT stock price it had a huge move up during the profitable Superstore rollout of the later 1990s. That new concept, aka store growth, drove sales and cash earnings. I believe, this is were Buffett kicked himself for being too timid on price with WMT. Yes, profitable store growth= cash earnings for WMT, but it's a mature business today. Unless, International works out like it has in Mexico in China. I would buy it for modest margin expansion and modest sales growth.... and its competitive advantage. I haven't done much work but at a lower price I would. But today, I get stuck at the Labor issue... it would destroy there beautiful business model--then, there' s a long way down. Even Lee Scott said it during his departure... maybe it was just a shot across the bow of labor, but I can't get comfortable with this....... except at the right price.

Re: Sir John's comments on education/university http://www.onpointradio.org/2009/06/the-new-global-student

If you want to download Word Docs or PDFs of SEC documents at one convenient location, use the below url address and simply fill in your desired ticker. For example, replace "WMT" at the end of the url with the ticker you're looking up and hit return. http://10kwizard.ccbn.com/fil_list.asp?TK=WMT This allows you to print in a clean format. This is a backdoor into 10K Wizard (you'd need a subscription otherwise). Unfortunately, there is no RSS on the pages... you'll need to use sec.gov for your company filing feeds.

I read some 10-Ks and proxies online but I have a laser printer with a low cost per page. The timeliness works for me.

Here's a great video tutorial explaining rss (aka "Really Simple Syndication"). He uses Google Reader to explain everything. This is the rss reader I use and would recommend. Hope you find this helpful!

This is terrific... while surely not perfect, it would be very helpful to me (particularly on very busy days). To me it seems comparable to position weightings with investing.... what is your conviction in a specific investment? Although this would be a voting machine, not a weighing machine situation. :>) Something to keep in mind!

Moyers, of PBS, did a few interviews with Simon Johnson. This one explores the Pecora hearings during the 1930s... really great! http://www.pbs.org/moyers/journal/04242009/watch.html Simon Johnson also has terrific blog http://baselinescenario.com/

Who doesn't know how to use e-mail? If someone is on this message board, I'm sure they know how to sign-up for and read e-mail newsletters. Do you have a daily e-mail option? That may be a good idea. For improvement to your site, I would continue to add stuff like "feature"/rating system, maybe one that rates the quality of the source or the article. If you can distinguish on the quality of articles/blogs and that would be much appreciated. For example, if I only had only time to read five or say ten articles which ones should I read? Maybe others value the ability to scan the list to find things that pop out at them, I can see that. One additional piece of advice, with web marketing and SEO there a VERY fine line between online marketing and spam. Be very careful about this. Especially since you are providing a genuinely helpful product. Cheers!

I would add the NYT article, Geithner, Member and Overseer of Finance Club http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/27/business/27geithner.html?_r=2&ref=business&pagewanted=all Explores the intellectual capture on the regulator side...

I enjoy your site MiguelB, but what is the point of continuing to post these this on the board when anyone can simply subscribe to the rss or e-mail on your site? FYI- I enjoyed your addition of the weekly e-mail list over at http://www.nightlyinvestmentlinks.com, as this fits my needs better than daily. Cheers

I am highly suspect of these types of anecdotes... for example last November my friend told me that things can't be that bad because California Pizza Kitchen in Miami was packed! Give me a break... since when is CPK representative of Main St America? Doesn't seasonality account for this.... I just sold my second car but it seemed to be "spring enthusiasm" type purchase rather than cyclical.

Does anyone own any REIT equity or preferred shares? http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/9c4763c6-2f3d-11de-b52f-00144feabdc0.html "REITs with total debt to capitalization near 60% and debt obligations as a percentage of assets of more than 35% through 2012 are expected to come to market to issue equity in the coming weeks and months, underwriters currently in talks with REITs told dealReporter. There is an appetite from institutional investors to support high quality names across all five food groups: residential, commercial, retail, hospitality, and industrial. Investors are willing to take up to USD 100m chunks of fresh equity while asking for 5% to 9% discounts on common shares, underwriters said. An increased flow of reverse enquiries from institutional investors are driving some of the recent equity deals, the sources said. Kimco’s 91.5m equity offering last week, was prompted by demand from the market, said sources close to the company. “We have been telling people get out and issue equity and be one of the first guys to do it; there is not enough money to recapitalize everyone,” said one underwriter currently working on similar deals."......

Flattery gets a reporter second interviews... and greater access generally. I enjoyed the read, even if it reads like PR. It is what it is...

I'll double down on my first post! A great read... reminds me of Prem. The Banker Who Said No http://www.forbes.com/2009/04/03/banking-andy-beal-business-wall-street-beal.html "He thinks the government is going to be "disappointed" by its various programs to revive lending. He says Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner's new plan to guarantee loans to buyers of toxic assets won't lead to many sales because the problem isn't liquidity but price. They are not low enough. Half the country's banks--4,000 in all--would be bust, he says, if they marked their loans to what the loans would fetch in an auction. He says banks are fooling themselves by refusing to mark busted assets down. "Banks are on a prayer mission that somehow prices will come back and they won't have to face reality," Beal says. And that reality, according to Beal, is going to get a lot worse. "Unemployment is going over 10%, commercial real estate hasn't even begun collapsing and corporate credit defaults are just getting started," he says. His prediction: depression, without bread lines this time, thanks to the government safety net, but with equal cost to society."

Great post Kyleholmes! What your talking about is also referred to as "garbage in, garbage out." I believe thinking about the structure of the industry and the sustainability of the free cash is really an excellent insight. Also analysts that have covered an industry for a long time have real advantage in having experienced one or several industry cycles. I love that "physics envy" quote--the human brain is an amazing thing. I would highly recommend this radio program, RadioLab's episode on Choice... there is stunning segment in the show on a study showing that when people had to hold seven rather than two number in their memory, their impulse control decreased significantly. Quite surprising, to me at least. http://www.wnyc.org/shows/radiolab/episodes/2008/11/14

I'm a bit surprised by the optimism on this thread... but maybe it's just me? Uccmal, so you believe we'll be back to positive economic growth by year end (6-9 months)? I disagree... hence feel this is a bear market (stock) rally. In addition, what type of economic growth are we going to get in 2010? I'd say negative. And when it comes, we are going to have very, very weak recovery.... I don't trust Mr. Market telling me the second derivative of leading indicators has turned... frankly he lies and it's been a long time since he's seen deflation. Plus, it's quite amusing how the media is jumping on this second derivative turning "meme." That being said there are a lot of interesting preferred shares, as mentioned on this board.

Good article from Jonathan Weil... http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601039&refer=columnist_weil&sid=aSWuIRVf5Q9k

I'll take the outsider any day... Insider (former): http://manualofideas.com/blog/2009/03/greenspan_opines_in_ft_should.html Outsider: http://www.nytimes.com/2008/08/15/opinion/15krugman.html PS: I cannot understand why FT gave Greenspan an editorial Here's a taste of the non-sense: "Speculative fever creates new avenues of excess until the house of cards collapses. What causes it finally to fall? Reality. An event shocks markets when it contradicts conventional wisdom of how the financial world is supposed to work. The uncertainty leads to a dramatic disengagement by the financial community that almost always requires sales and, hence, lower prices of goods and assets. We can model the euphoria and the fear stage of the business cycle. Their parameters are quite different. We have never successfully modelled the transition from euphoria to fear."

Good point on registered representatives. Thanks! I came off a bit negative... I liked much of what I heard on the Nov call. - focus on absolute returns - willingness to hold cash - push into high yields and convertibles, they'll go anywhere (no benchmark hugging here) - global perspective (I loved their candor on the macro picture the US consumer faces and the headwinds it creates for US equities--comment was before US stimulus bill and EU dragging their feet on the fiscal side) Overall they seem very disciplined and have their own money invested... as you mentioned. I look forward to any comments you have from the call... Cheers!

FYI, it's a load fund... I was considering it for Japanese small value exposure until I noticed the hefty fees. Tough pill to swallow... plus I saw them "discussing" AUM capacity in the $10 bil + range (if I remember correctly) in their conference call last November. Why are they throwing AUM targets around only a year after they've opened up shop... how about some focus on performance? I will say that they do seem disciplined investment-wise.

This thread is yielding some great insights. I'll add a few more... - Focusing on sales growth rather than profitability (A company I owned kept discussing sales growth and analysts worried constantly about it, despite healthy FCF and good valuation. Flash forward to an overpriced acquisition to drive growth, then high expenses integrating and finally a weakening FCF as the company aggressively chased sales. The "false god of sales growth"--a hard lesson to learn.) - Buying a full position too fast (Not letting Mr. Market fully work for me. Hence getting shaken out of position when I should have been buying more.) - Falling in love with a stock (If I ever have the desire to brag about a stock's performance, I should sell the stock and move on.) I'd say my most important lessons fall in into two categories--"Price matters most" and a focus on ROIC/company culture. Old hat but always worth keeping in mind. "Investing is largely a conceptual exercise with some factual support. Company analysis typically has more facts and fewer concepts. Perhaps it should be the other way around.” (Michael Goldstein, Empirical Research)