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Evolveus

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Everything posted by Evolveus

  1. Got mine too. I was getting worried there for a minute when the website was totally out of commission. Diving into the issue this evening ;D
  2. I like watching Bloomberg for Betty Liu. I also like the demeanor of the reports on Bloomberg much more than cnbc. Sorkin has always come across as arrogant, and he looks rather young to be so all-knowing. The other guy, (Joe?) reminds me of a slightly more lively version of Columbo, but without the investigative prowess. Their cnbc show has excellent guests, Lampert, Buffett, Ross, etc, but the interviews almost always interrupt and cut them off. I like the Alan Abelson column in Barron's. A couple solid value blogs. Gmo white papers Managers commentary: sequoia, long leaf, Berkshire East Coast Capital, etc. for audio/video: Wealth track The Value Guys stock talk podcast (used to be value line observer) A little Bloomberg (select interviews that are usually highlighted in the blogs I read) Twitter is a great source if you are selective about who you follow. Most financial tv media, including Bloomberg at times just gives me a headache with all the different windows and crawls going on simultaneously.
  3. Agreed there are a ton of newsletters nowadays, but I felt like OID delivered value when they delivered an issue. Their '09 issue had an excellent in depth interview with Berkowitz and Fernandez along with a Klarman speech that was spot on. VII and MOI are both good althought I don't have current subscriptions. There is so much noise out there, it took me several years just to figure out what sources to pay attention to. I think between sites like dataroma, 52-week low lists, this board, VIC, DDIC, the Economists, The Magic Formula, and a carefully selected collection of blogs (ie CS Investing or the Brooklyn Investor to name a few) it negates the need for a subscription service. I do like to read Grants interest Rate observer when I can, but it's pricey.
  4. Things not looking too hot for my Outstanding Investor Digest subscription. http://www.oid.com/
  5. Just a shot in the dark here to see if the board would have any input. I'm getting a lot of interest in some raw land I own. We are just starting to develop the property for residential (multi-family and single family) and commercial. The commercial portion would have roadside frontage. My thought is that the roadside frontage should command a good bit more per square foot than the land that is farther from the road. Also, in pricing the frontage portion higher, it would encourage folks to build deeper instead of buying up all the roadside square footage at once. I have limited access to comparable asking prices in the area and we are in a very good location as far as being in the pathway of growth. Im looking for feedback to see if my thought process about a blended per square foot pricing model is what usually happens in these scenarios. Any other pointers, sites, books etc are welcomed as well. Thanks.
  6. I attended the recent meeting for Sequoia fund. They made an interesting comment on Visa / Mastercard (they've owned MA, IIRC, for a long time and thier past bullish comments have been posted on this board). To paraphrase: "The mobile payment threat is potentially quite big to V and MA. Companies like Apple and Google have enormous networks of people that they could leverage to compete with V and MA. The risk of mobile payments is that they can use ACH (Automatic Clearing House) to get around the V and MA payment networks. To do so, however, they have to have bank account information and it is possible that people won't want their bank info. exposed. But, it is very possible. No one knows how it will shake out." -- Again, the above is a paraphrase. But, it got me thinking. Isn't something like American Express a much better option than V or MA. The standard -- recent -- counter argument is that Amex has credit risk. Not much...take a look at their numbers. And, importantly on the subject above, what Amex does have that (as I understand it, V and MA don't) is a very powerful rewards program that keeps customers using their card. Obviously, other card providers have rewards programs but those are mostly banks and the banks don't have the V / MA network. Amex has both and has the high-paying customers as well. Just a thought when comparing V / MA to Amex when considering the mobile payments threat. I have passed on investing in M and VA before for the reasons articulated by Sequoia. See http://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/general-discussion/visa/msg22547/#msg22547 These guys will try their best to partner with the telcos to make sure they don't get cut out of the payments process. See, for example, Isis Mobile Wallet. I agree that mobile payments poise a considerable threat. I think in order for mobile payments to breach the moat and permanently impair the business would require MA/V's management to not do a couple things: Do not continue to spend on R&D at all. Do not offer anything in the way of new product offerings/solutions. Do not continue to provide secure systems to uphold the value and trust of the MA/V brand. Do not strategically purchase businesses either in the name of defending the moat, growth, or cost savings. I would think that MA/V should have a significant enough head start, that even if the above happened, they should be ok for a good while. I think that Paypal is a real threat in the electronic space. Paypal helped eBay considerably in their most recent earnings beat. I like eBay's halo effect plus the Paypal kicker. Amex is a great company and has many of the traits of MA/V, but due to that credit risk, albiet smaller than a Capital One or Discover due to their target demographic, it is awarded a much lower multiple than MA/V.
  7. Wealth Track interview with 'James Bianco' http://t.co/UychySFk
  8. MasterCard/Visa - duopoly. on a global basis, cash still accounts for 70% of transactions, therefore their is growth opportunities. Brand recognition/trust. Inflation hedge - as dollars per transaction increases due to inflation, so does MA/V's profit as they take small portion of each of those transactions. ADP - duopoly, high switching costs, provides necessary service, will benefit as economy improves, will benefit from float as interest rates rise (I'm not saying those two things will happen soon) KO - brand recognition, pricing power, economies of scale, global growth opportunities. Watsco - provides a non-discretionary service (air conditioning, heating, refridegeration parts) large, difficult to replicate distribution network. Largest in US but in only 36 states currently. Philip Morris International - addictive product, pricing power (bc of addiction), international growth/focus Colgate - quality brand in non- discretionary space. Razor blade model in oral hygiene segment (toothbrushes). Strong Latin American growth. To paraphrase Munger: "most people will pay a little extra for a brand they trust when it comes to putting that object in their mouth."
  9. Spring Graham & Doddsville with Tom Russo, Alex Roepers, and a glasses-less Jim Chanos. http://t.co/7A98yULY
  10. William Poorvu is an author, Chair of Harvard Real Estate Department, and was an initial investor in Baupost. I found him by doing a book search on Klarman, and noticed Poorvu in the 'thank you' section. I did some digging and ended up getting his books. He has two books "The Real Estate Game" and "Creating and Growing Real Estate Wealth" that are geared toward a wider audience. I have read them both and took a little something away from each one. Since you already own and operate, you might want something a little more technical. His book "Real Estate: a Case Study Approach" gets much more serious with numbers, analysis, and spreadsheets involved in comparing large apartment complexes, hotels, and industrial properties as investments. I believe this was originally written as a textbook, but I found it to be pretty accessible if you really want to work with large RE project numbers. It's cheap on Amazon right now used. Hope that helps.
  11. http://www.zerohedge.com/news/do-what-buffett-says-not-what-he-does This Zerohedge article criticizes BRK and Buffett for saying that cash is the riskiest asset, yet BRK has their highest cash balance on record. I think Zerohedge is muckraking - for one, given the large insurance ops and super cat exposures, they need a sizable slug in the event of said super cat. Also, it seems that BRK is focusing more on growing earnings from Operating companies so that when WB isn't around they are not as dependent on his investing prowess. So naturally as they grow cash flow from ops, their cash balance will continue to increase incrementally, and possibly faster than they can put it to good use given their size. As Munger says, "There are worse problems to have..." If they intended on just holding cash forever and letting it build then that would be risky, just as Buffett is saying - ie, don't go bury your cash in the backyard. Also a glance at that graph at the bottom of the article clearly shows that cash balance going down considerably in down markets. Given that cash from Ops is coming in faster than they can deploy it, what does one make of the high cash balance in relation to possible danger in the overall market or lack of value opportunities?
  12. Here is T. Boone Pickens recent TED talk on nat gas as a bridge fuel and viable alternative for American energy:
  13. Grantham's latest, coming in at 15 pages. http://www.scribd.com/fullscreen/82718897?access_key=key-2066mj0700s7qgsrb3nf
  14. I remember reading the note about the editor's loss in that last issue. I genuinely felt for the man. That's something not to wish on anyone. I also remember in that same note, the editor mentioned wanting to be more timely with his publication from there on out.
  15. Anyone here subscribe to OID? I have been a subscriber for around 4 years. I understand and like the concept of '# of issues per subscription' as opposed to being on a fixed publishing schedule, but I've only gotten 2 issues in those 4 years. It's a great read, but the infrequency is somewhat frustrating. I've emailed them, but haven't heard back...anyone else subscribed or corresponded with OID? Thanks,
  16. Here is the video link of him answering questions outside - http://www.bloomberg.com/video/78807998/
  17. I think with the shrinking share count, small float and the huge short positions we will continue to see big moves in the stock. I have noticed a few high single digit moves lately. Granted the whole market is pretty volatile, but SHLD is bouncing around alot.
  18. Longleaf Partners Panel Discussion from July 25th. They talk specifically about Dell, LMT, the impact of the macro picture on their strategy, and a couple of other current high conviction ideas. I love that they put these on their website as MP3's now. http://www.longleafpartners.com/news/SFL_commentary_72511.cfm
  19. Thank you for the tip! I had a good feeling that I could count on this message board to come thru for me!!! ;D
  20. Thanks for the suggestion! I was considering that. iPhone to the rescue (possibly!)
  21. As we taxied down the runway the pit of my stomach began to sink...I could clearly visualize my Brk meeting credentials sitting on my dresser. Im laid over in Atlanta, arriving in Omaha around 10pm. If anyone has an extra pass or any suggestions please please post here! I feel pretty bummed about this - any help at all is much appreciated and of course drinks and lunch are on me! ~Yomaha
  22. http://www.bengrahaminvesting.ca/Resources/Video_Presentations/Guest_Speakers/2011/Watsa_2011.htm N'Joy ~Yomaha
  23. interesting SH letter from Christopher Begg http://www.marketfolly.com/2011/04/east-coast-asset-management-on.html in the letter there is also a link to the syllabus for the class he is teaching at Columbia. The required reading list is on there. Most of ya'll will be familiar with the books on the list N'Joy ~Yomaha h/t Market Folly
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