rijk

sino forest really doesn't need block to make them look bad.... anyone who has listened to the conf call and still believes that this is all above board deserves to lose his/her money..... imagine a $5 billion market cap company in the US that has been in business for 17 years but that doesn't pay their own taxes, assumes that these taxes have been paid by key customers, but doesn't have any way to substantiate this and therefore records a contingent tax liability of 100s of millions just in case....... regards rijk

this looks like a grantham "stuff in the ground" play regards rijk

FYI regards rijk http://brontecapital.blogspot.com/2011/06/sino-forests-some-thoughts.html

think this sums it up very nicely, a commodity business like forestry just doesn't have a profitability profile like TRE has, if you want to believe in miracles, please feel free but don't be surprised when your account value (or what's left of it) has miraculously evaporated one day...... regards rijk

one of china's largest commercial plantation operators but no functioning website..... but wait..... the link to the parent company, sino forest, works fine...... http://www.sinowood.com.hk/ regards rijk

first impression of mr block is a good one! regards rijk http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000016286

L-1 Identity Solutions (ID) is being acquired by Safran (French) for $12 share cash, current price is $10.78, i.e. 11% spread. http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1018332/000095012310087508/y03977exv99w1.htm The final pending merger condition is CFIUS approval, which looks at national safety concerns ID & Safran have re-filed their CFIUS application twice to allow more time to negotiate & complete the final mitigation agreement http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1018332/000095012311048465/y04851exv99w1.htm both ID & Safran are very well connected politically (see attached), in fact Safran is being advised by Michael Shertoff, the former DHS Secretary (DHS is on of the government agencies represented in CFIUS) the intelligence arm of L-1 has already been divested to BEA (UK) L-1 is being sold to a French company, i.e. an allie, not a Chinese company, I wonder how Obama would explain to Sarkozy that France is not a trusted business partner but can be relied upon in times of war...... None of the recent press releases talks about problems with approval, the justification for another extension/re-file is that more time is required to complete the final mitigation agreement, if there was political resistance, you would have expected a different communication, unless the game is to frustrate Safran untill they withdraw the transaction, which doesn't make sense and would result in termination fee payable by Safran of $75 million (i.e. Safran had high conviction that regulatory matters were not an issue when they entered this deal). Everyone is spooked by another re-file an the market doesn't like uncertainty, resulting in an 11% spread what am i missing? regards rijk

thanks again val9000, your explanations make sense... i wonder why SD hasn't opted to designate their derivative contracts as a hedges, when the only reason to enter into these contracts is to lock in the profit when prices are favorable, i.e. derivative losses should be matched with future oil profits looks like the market doesn't ignore derivative results, SD continues to slide while other oil companies are more stable (today) regarding Buffett's Burlington comment, even though SD's expertise is oil, i would think that their expertise is more focused on oil exploration and production versus trading a commodity, my understanding was that Buffett's point was that nobody can accurately predict commodity prices and that therefore it doesn't make much sense to dedicate resources to hedging. i understand the cost/price preditability/stability arguments, however, Buffett's argument seems to be that hedging activites do not necessarily provide value to shareholders.... regards rijk

thanks val9000, let's take an example... cost 30, hedge price 80 and spot price 100 what happened in Q1 is that SD recorded -20 because oil increased while they hedged at 80? what will happen in the future is that SD will record +70 (assuming spot price stays the same)? i thought it would make more sense from a matching perspective to record 50 when the oil is sold..... in any case, it looks like the Q1 derivative loss will return like a future profit???? regards rijk

good operational results not sure what to make of financial results, $267 million unrealized derivative loss (Q1 oil & gas revenue is the same figure)... - how are derivative results calculated? - regarding Buffett's suggestion to Burlington to not hedge their diesel costs, wouldn't this apply to SD also, especially since they apparently are a low cost producer? regards rijk http://finance.yahoo.com/news/SandRidge-Energy-Inc-Reports-prnews-1416744902.html?x=0&.v=1

here is another one, not completely clear, at approx 5 mins another audio starts but doesn't last that long, some very personal remarks towards the end.... regards rijk http://www.ndtv.com/video/player/ndtv-special-ndtv-profit/buffett-rational-in-expectations-ajit-jain/194862

i sold my shares in MBRG last year when i discovered the family link with the CEO without any disclosure..... could this derail the LZ transaction? the merger premium is less than 20%, what if some large shareholders believe that LZ is worth more? regards rijk

the average (1965-2011) japanese PE/10 seems to be in the 30-40 range, compared to an average (1880-2011) US PE/10 of around 16 the japanes PE/10 hardly ever trades below 20, it is trading around 18 (16 + 10%?) right now.... what would justify a valuation on average at least twice as high for the japanese market compared with the US market??? it's definitely not the returns on capital!!!! http://blog.iii.co.uk/buying-japan/ http://www.multpl.com/

interesting article http://www.marketfolly.com/2011/03/john-paulson-on-risk-in-risk-arbitrage.html i am wondering how many "corner members" use merger arbitrage today to generate returns while the market is overvalued... buffett generated significant value from merger arbitrage investing during the period where he had relatively "small" amounts to invest.... merger spreads are tight at the moment, it's hard to find a decent deal with an estimated AR > 10% regards rijk

the link still doesn't work, can anybody re-post the notes please..... thanks rijk

anybody looking at individual japanese stocks? somebody will need to rebuild Japan....... how is this not cheap??? http://investing.businessweek.com/businessweek/research/stocks/snapshot/snapshot.asp?ticker=1819:JP http://investing.businessweek.com/businessweek/research/stocks/snapshot/snapshot.asp?ticker=5445:JP regards rijk

this would be an excellent question for an annual shareholders meeting, preferably Berkshire's or Fairfax's.... regards rijk

in the investment world there are a limited number of true investors (Buffett, Watsa, Klarman) and then there are a large number of "gamblers",..... from watching the video, Mr Loeb definitely belongs in the 2nd category regards rijk http://www.blip.tv/file/2234740/

thanks for the information globalfinancepartners do you know what type of companies the 2% represent? that 2% was mighty expensive at the peak in 2000 as they seem to have accounted for approx 20% of GDP...... regards rijk

wondering if someone could help with the following questions: - fairfax used to have a Market Cap/GDP slide in the AGM presentation (most recently in 2009 see attached), any idea why that practise has been discontinued in 2010? - although directionally similar, the Gurufocus chart (attached) doesn't use the same values, example the 2000 peak is 150% while the fairfax chart showed a figure slightly over 170%, what could explain the difference? - does anyone know if there is a real-time online version other than the one on GuruFocus? regards rijk

interesting article from reuters africa,.. not sure why this would have to come through africa..... regards rijk http://af.reuters.com/article/cameroonNews/idAFN0720222720110309?pageNumber=3&virtualBrandChannel=0&sp=true

Buffet could just as easy be viewing this as a mistake. that's the feeling i get when hearing his comments, it's obvious that he is not convinced at all! regards, rijk

think there are some clues in buffett's comments: BECKY: ...since Carl mentioned this in his introduction to that question. Ray from Westminster, Maryland, writes in. He says, "Everyone seems to be aware of your investment at BYD--that's the Chinese electric car company. The stock's deteriorated of late and I can't seem to get a handle on the firm's profitability. Are they trying to compete on pricing only, or does their battery technology give them a clear advantage?" BUFFETT: Well, the battery technology, if it works out like they hope it will, will give them a clear advantage. But battery technology is a evolving and tough game. And my partner Charlie particularly thinks that we've got the right fellow to make the breakthroughs in that--in that area. But it isn't like you get it tomorrow or the next day. And, you know, there are a lot of smart people working on battery technology. And, you know, I--in the--in the end, what I hope is the world gets a great answer on it very quickly... BUFFETT: And my friend, Charlie, who knows a lot more about batteries than I do, thinks that this guy is the second coming, more or less. So we'll see what happens on that. It's not easy. I mean, when you're dealing with batteries, you know, the weight, the cost, there's all--there are plenty of problems involved, but I will bet significant progress is made by BYD, but there may be more significant progress made by somebody else in the next few years. BECKY: Tony in San Diego writes in and says that, "BYD has lost more than 60 percent from its peak in 2010. Do you consider buying more shares because of the current discount?" BUFFETT: No. Well, who knows? CARL: I do like your point, though, about batteries. And a big--it's a tough hill to storm, but if you could--if you could take that hill and turn batteries into something other than what they are today, that has implications for solar, certainly for BYD. Would you say, Warren, that battery--the evolution of batteries is where you are most leveraged to innovation and tech? BUFFETT: Well, perhaps. And, Carl, you're 100 percent right. I mean, it--and it's going to happen. It may happen at BYD, it may happen, you know, with General Motors, it may happen in Japan. Lots of smart people are working on it, and you know it's a tough problem because you're got to many smart people and it is proving tough to get accomplished, but it's going to happen. It will happen. And I'm not the kind of a guy normally that makes a bet on who's going to make it happen. I'm just not that--I'm not that good at picking the winner in something like that. I know who's going to win in soft drinks, I know who's going to win in chewing gum, you know, I know who's going to win in auto insurance. But that doesn't really take any great insights. My partner, Charlie Munger, believes very strongly that BYD is the most likely winner in this. He's got a--and he is a lot smarter than I am on this subject and a lot of other subjects. But that doesn't mean I'd shove all my chips out in the table just because Charlie feels that way. regards, rijk http://everythingwarrenbuffett.blogspot.com/2011/03/cnbc-full-transcript-of-warren-buffett.html

ok, thanks for the clarification, strange article,... doesn't seem to have any other purpose than to mention a huge value and baupost/klarman....... regards, rijk

klarman raised 12 billion only three months after he returned 5 billion to investors???? so what happened after not seeing many opportunities only 3 months ago, looks like klarman is getting ready to take advantage of a huge opportunity...... http://boston.citybizlist.com/7/2011/2/24/Seth-Klarman%E2%80%99s-The-Baupost-Group-has-Raised-12B-for-its-Hedge-Funds--cbl.aspx